Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI rebalances will take place at the close on 4 September since the market was closed on 1 September due to Typhoon Saola.</li>
<li>There will be a few announcements next week with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> early in the week and the MVIS series post close on Friday. Plus the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a> rebalances on Friday.</li>
<li>Another week of huge inflows into mainland China ETFs focused on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


The HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI rebalances will take place at the close on 4 September since the market was closed on 1 September due to Typhoon Saola.
There will be a few announcements next week with Nikkei 225 early in the week and the MVIS series post close on Friday. Plus the STAR50 rebalances on Friday.
Another week of huge inflows into mainland China ETFs focused on the CSI 300 Index, STAR50 INDEX and CSI Smallcap 500 Index.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, KOSPI200, Hang Seng, MVIS, AMFI, Jio, China ETF

<ul>
<li>We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 13 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six month.</li>
<li>Active managers could continue to realign their portfolios. Some of the upward migrations will have passive flows in the next few days and over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 13 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six month.
Active managers could continue to realign their portfolios. Some of the upward migrations will have passive flows in the next few days and over the next few months.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): Overlap Between Active & Passive Flows

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>JK Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on JK Cement (JKCE), with an unchanged TP of INR 2,755 (11x Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA)</li><li>In Q1FY24, JKCE reported strong 29% YoY grey cement volume growth on a healthy ramp of its Panna capacity (75% utilization)</li><li>Fuel cost cooled off by INR 150/MT QoQ in Q1, thus driving grey unit EBITDA recovery by INR 130/MT QoQ in Q1</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JK Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on JK Cement (JKCE), with an unchanged TP of INR 2,755 (11x Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA)In Q1FY24, JKCE reported strong 29% YoY grey cement volume growth on a healthy ramp of its Panna capacity (75% utilization)Fuel cost cooled off by INR 150/MT QoQ in Q1, thus driving grey unit EBITDA recovery by INR 130/MT QoQ in Q1Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: JK Cement, Vinati Organics, KNR Constructions, Ahluwalia Contracts

<ul><li>Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Our ADD rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 390, is premised on robust refining and marketing margins, offset by elevated debt, owing to a rise in working capital requirement and capex</li><li>Q4FY23 EBITDA stood at INR 112bn, while APAT was at INR 65bn, coming in well above our estimates, supported by a better-than-expected performance from the marketing segment</li><li>Reported GRMs were at USD 20.6/bbl (+USD 5.3/bbl YoY, +USD 4.7/bbl QoQ, HSIE: USD 19.8/bbl). Gail (India): Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a target price of INR 125 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 123mmscmd by FY25 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segment</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Our ADD rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 390, is premised on robust refining and marketing margins, offset by elevated debt, owing to a rise in working capital requirement and capexQ4FY23 EBITDA stood at INR 112bn, while APAT was at INR 65bn, coming in well above our estimates, supported by a better-than-expected performance from the marketing segmentReported GRMs were at USD 20.6/bbl (+USD 5.3/bbl YoY, +USD 4.7/bbl QoQ, HSIE: USD 19.8/bbl). Gail (India): Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a target price of INR 125 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 123mmscmd by FY25 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segmentContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Gail (India), Vinati Organics

<ul><li>Our chemical universe is expected to report a muted sequential growth, owing to subdued demand, courtesy the global recessionary headwinds faced by various end-user industries</li><li>Revenue for our coverage universe is likely to improve by ~6/5% YoY/QoQ.</li><li>EBITDA margin could deteriorate by 188bps YoY and remain flattish sequentially at 21%, owing to the elevated raw material cost and lower absorption of fixed cost.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our chemical universe is expected to report a muted sequential growth, owing to subdued demand, courtesy the global recessionary headwinds faced by various end-user industriesRevenue for our coverage universe is likely to improve by ~6/5% YoY/QoQ.EBITDA margin could deteriorate by 188bps YoY and remain flattish sequentially at 21%, owing to the elevated raw material cost and lower absorption of fixed cost.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Vinati Organics Limited produces organic intermediates and monomers.

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Vinati Organics (VO IN)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, KOSPI200, Hang Seng, MVIS, AMFI, Jio, China ETF

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): Overlap Between Active & Passive Flows

We see 42 potential migrations between the size categories. The small to mid migrations have outperformed. There will be a lot of overlap between...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: JK Cement, Vinati Organics, KNR Constructions, Ahluwalia Contracts

We maintain our REDUCE rating on JK Cement (JKCE), with an unchanged TP of INR 2,755 (11x Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA). In Q1FY24, JKCE reported...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Gail (India), Vinati Organics

Our ADD rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 390, is premised on robust refining and marketing margins, offset by elevated...

HDFC Securities

Chemicals: Recovery and stability ahead!

Our chemical universe is expected to report a muted sequential growth, owing to subdued demand, courtesy the global recessionary headwinds faced by...

HDFC Securities

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