Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Real credit fundamentals have yet to catch-up with spreads in bonds which continue to outperform. True fundamentals have a considerable gap to close relative to spread compression. Global monetary accommodation is in large part responsible for recent outperformance. However, credit tourists may have booked too early.Deeply subordinated Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds led in terms of spread tightening during January in Asia. Increased risk tolerance and a reach for yield, possibly by credit tourists, drove results as global vaccination efforts raised economic growth expectations. As such, Hong Kong and Thai- based bank securities outperformed, albeit for differing reasons.As Asia-headquartered banks report earnings, the quality of disclosure varies considerably from bank-to-bank. Even where disclosure is adequate, asset quality indicators may greatly underestimate the level of troubled debt due to continued forbearance, restructuring efforts and early-stage aging. This is driving provisioning costs lower than would be expected in a more normal operating environment. The value of these reports is significantly diminished for credit investors. Financial repression creates a market, which in its nature, is always a one-sided bet with the Fed / ECB/ BOJ.  There is limited price discovery. As such, credit value should remain driven by larger market forces.In terms of economic growth, the IMF projects 11.5% and 8.1% GDP growth this year for India and China, respectively. The near-term future is South Asian, but this may not apply to all. Most India-headquartered banks already price-in considerable recovery prospects. However, significant bank recapitalized in needed for the economic forecasts to materialize and for these banks spreads to be maintained.Eventually, it will be time to deliver real fundamental performance. In the meantime, monetary accommodation should remain the main driver of credit spreads while economic growth plays catch-up. Credit tourists are fickle and may vacate if either are delayed.

Real credit fundamentals have yet to catch-up with spreads in bonds which continue to outperform. True fundamentals have a considerable gap to close relative to spread compression. Global monetary accommodation is in large part responsible for recent outperformance. However, credit tourists may have booked too early.Deeply subordinated Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds led in terms of spread tightening during January in Asia. Increased risk tolerance and a reach for yield, possibly by credit tourists, drove results as global vaccination efforts raised economic growth expectations. As such, Hong Kong and Thai- based bank securities outperformed, albeit for differing reasons.As Asia-headquartered banks report earnings, the quality of disclosure varies considerably from bank-to-bank. Even where disclosure is adequate, asset quality indicators may greatly underestimate the level of troubled debt due to continued forbearance, restructuring efforts and early-stage aging. This is driving provisioning costs lower than would be expected in a more normal operating environment. The value of these reports is significantly diminished for credit investors. Financial repression creates a market, which in its nature, is always a one-sided bet with the Fed / ECB/ BOJ.  There is limited price discovery. As such, credit value should remain driven by larger market forces.In terms of economic growth, the IMF projects 11.5% and 8.1% GDP growth this year for India and China, respectively. The near-term future is South Asian, but this may not apply to all. Most India-headquartered banks already price-in considerable recovery prospects. However, significant bank recapitalized in needed for the economic forecasts to materialize and for these banks spreads to be maintained.Eventually, it will be time to deliver real fundamental performance. In the meantime, monetary accommodation should remain the main driver of credit spreads while economic growth plays catch-up. Credit tourists are fickle and may vacate if either are delayed.

Bank Credit Compass: Credit Tourist May Vacate if Real Fundamentals Do Not Catch-Up

A pack of small, but smart, investors in a free and open market caught hedge funds off guard this week. The hunter was hunted, and the resulting equity market volatility drove financial concerns more than financial conditions. The GameStop situation is noise and not a signal for risk assets. For a nasty global risk asset unwind, there needs to be a catalyst in the form of either an economic downturn or a material tightening in Fed policy. Neither is in play. Weakness in Asia High Yield this week may create opportunities.More importantly, for credit investors, short-term Libor levels hit record lows on Friday. This matters as investors that focus on high-quality short-term securities may be pushed into commercial paper or other very short-duration paper. The rate curve should bull steepening from the excess amount of cash in the market. The flood of cash could drive credit yields even lower.In this environment, U.S. CCC-rated and Asia High Yield index spreads widened.  More and more brokerage houses are recommending Asia High Yield as the place to be in 2021, despite property developer concerns in China. Our take is that fundamentals have yet to catch-up with spreads in the US CCC-rated area although we suspect that they may. However, US High Yield has a higher effective duration now, versus pre-Covid, and versus Asia High Yield. As such US High Yield credits have more limited upside in the reflation scenario. A delay in the reflation scenario should benefit Asia-headquartered risk assets.At the same time, ivory-tower syndrome has taken over the Fed. Chairman Powell’s comments this week that what is really driving asset prices is not monetary policy, suggests that the disconcerting disconnect between financial and economic conditions is not understood by senior policymakers. If the Chairman’s comments were true, then there would be no need to signal a tapering of asset purchases well in advance. Whether you call it price fixing or price guidance by the Fed and ECB policymakers, it does not matter as you cannot fight it. The Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) is real in the credit markets.Despite these challenges, Asia’s bank spreads continued to tighten during the week. Officials in India anticipate 11% GDP growth in ’21-’22 from April, following vaccination, in-line with the 11.5% and 8.1% projected for India and China, respectively, by the IMF. The near-term future is in South Asian, but this may not apply to all India-headquartered banks. We also note that significant bank recapitalized in needed for these forecasts to materialize. Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yes-bank-solvency-simulation-with-covid-19-coverage-scenarios" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47523" rel="noopener">YES Bank Solvency Simulation with Covid-19 Coverage Scenarios</a> for an example of the difficulties facing India-headquartered banks.Market Outlook: GameStop is noise and not a signal. Although weakening in some markets, economic growth and continued monetary accommodation remain the main drivers for credit markets. Credit fundamentals should catch-up with repressed credit spreads. Therefore, credit has limited upside in a fast reflation scenario. Reconciliation or negotiation may deliver the same stimulus result over the near term.  As such, a slower, more contained, reflation environment could be Emerging Market credit supportive.

A pack of small, but smart, investors in a free and open market caught hedge funds off guard this week. The hunter was hunted, and the resulting equity market volatility drove financial concerns more than financial conditions. The GameStop situation is noise and not a signal for risk assets. For a nasty global risk asset unwind, there needs to be a catalyst in the form of either an economic downturn or a material tightening in Fed policy. Neither is in play. Weakness in Asia High Yield this week may create opportunities.More importantly, for credit investors, short-term Libor levels hit record lows on Friday. This matters as investors that focus on high-quality short-term securities may be pushed into commercial paper or other very short-duration paper. The rate curve should bull steepening from the excess amount of cash in the market. The flood of cash could drive credit yields even lower.In this environment, U.S. CCC-rated and Asia High Yield index spreads widened.  More and more brokerage houses are recommending Asia High Yield as the place to be in 2021, despite property developer concerns in China. Our take is that fundamentals have yet to catch-up with spreads in the US CCC-rated area although we suspect that they may. However, US High Yield has a higher effective duration now, versus pre-Covid, and versus Asia High Yield. As such US High Yield credits have more limited upside in the reflation scenario. A delay in the reflation scenario should benefit Asia-headquartered risk assets.At the same time, ivory-tower syndrome has taken over the Fed. Chairman Powell’s comments this week that what is really driving asset prices is not monetary policy, suggests that the disconcerting disconnect between financial and economic conditions is not understood by senior policymakers. If the Chairman’s comments were true, then there would be no need to signal a tapering of asset purchases well in advance. Whether you call it price fixing or price guidance by the Fed and ECB policymakers, it does not matter as you cannot fight it. The Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) is real in the credit markets.Despite these challenges, Asia’s bank spreads continued to tighten during the week. Officials in India anticipate 11% GDP growth in ’21-’22 from April, following vaccination, in-line with the 11.5% and 8.1% projected for India and China, respectively, by the IMF. The near-term future is in South Asian, but this may not apply to all India-headquartered banks. We also note that significant bank recapitalized in needed for these forecasts to materialize. Please see YES Bank Solvency Simulation with Covid-19 Coverage Scenarios for an example of the difficulties facing India-headquartered banks.Market Outlook: GameStop is noise and not a signal. Although weakening in some markets, economic growth and continued monetary accommodation remain the main drivers for credit markets. Credit fundamentals should catch-up with repressed credit spreads. Therefore, credit has limited upside in a fast reflation scenario. Reconciliation or negotiation may deliver the same stimulus result over the near term.  As such, a slower, more contained, reflation environment could be Emerging Market credit supportive.

Bank Credit Weekly: GameStop Is Noise, Not a Signal, for Risk Assets

Ironically, a distracted and internally divided US Congress combined with an accommodative Fed could be bullish for risk assets and simultaneously reduce bearish fixed income pressures. For bond investors, it could be reassuring that the Goldilocks election outcome remains as political balances keep the US government from undertaking an even larger, more sustained, reflationary fiscal push. This could benefit Asia-headquartered risk assets.Some observers worry, rightly so, that the trial of former President Trump threatens to elongate the political divide in the U.S. This could make it more difficult for President Biden to effectively deliver on his fiscal spending plans in a timely manner while economic activity indicators soften. In addition, expectations that President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan may be materially watered-down, by almost one-half, raised expectations that Fed accommodation would be extended longer than anticipated when the stimulus plan was first announced. As such, the current distraction may be credit positive. Meanwhile, U.S. CCC-rated indexes compressed into uncharted territory as CCC-index yields hit all-time lows. Asia risk asset followed, although the credit spread relationship between these two geographies remains far from the norm.  We note that credits only have limited upside in the reflation scenario.  Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-credit-weekly-moving-the-goal-posts" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46889" rel="noopener">Bank Credit Weekly: Moving the Goal Posts</a> for more on this. A delay in the reflation scenario could also benefit Asia-headquartered risk assets.In addition, just as the US-dollar media narrative began to change from one of universal weakening to strengthening, US-dollar strengthening stopped. Declining odds on a large federal stimulus package likely arrested dollar strength. We present our US-dollar views inside and why it may be short-term Asia credit positive.Meanwhile, Fed officials are not reading from the same song sheet. Admonishing others to avoid asset purchase tapering discussions at the Fed is tantamount to a Say no Evil, Hear no Evil strategy. This is misguided as an open discussion could limit volatility once tapering begins. Please see last week’s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-credit-weekly-distractions-may-drive-markets-near-term" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47117" rel="noopener">Bank Credit Weekly: Distractions May Drive Markets Near Term</a> for more on this. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will discuss the FOMC’s decisions on Wednesday, 27 January.Against this backdrop, almost all of Asia’s bank debt tightened during the week. Improved risk sentiment, the arrest of a stronger US-dollar, EM inflows and country specific announcements drove these results. In particular, the Reserve Bank of India’s proposal to revise the regulatory framework for India’s non-bank finance companies likely had a positive impact on the US-dollar bonds of these institutions.Several Asia-headquartered banks reported earnings as the week ended and into the weekend. Asia bank earnings season is upon us. However, we note that asset quality indicators at many banks greatly underestimate the level of troubled debt within the institution as forbearance measures remain in place in several operating environments. This is driving provisioning costs lower than would be expected in a more normal operating environment. The value of these earnings reports is significantly diminished for credit investors. As such, credit value should remain driven by larger market forces.Market Outlook: The distraction of another set of impeachment proceedings could turn out to be market friendly if it results in more targeted stimulus. Outside of the Washington beltway, the real issue of how much is too much stimulus as the vaccine is rolled-out will lead to concerns on when the Fed begins to taper its asset purchases. Credit has limited upside in a fast reflation scenario. A slower, more contained, reflation environment could be Emerging Market credit supportive.

Ironically, a distracted and internally divided US Congress combined with an accommodative Fed could be bullish for risk assets and simultaneously reduce bearish fixed income pressures. For bond investors, it could be reassuring that the Goldilocks election outcome remains as political balances keep the US government from undertaking an even larger, more sustained, reflationary fiscal push. This could benefit Asia-headquartered risk assets.Some observers worry, rightly so, that the trial of former President Trump threatens to elongate the political divide in the U.S. This could make it more difficult for President Biden to effectively deliver on his fiscal spending plans in a timely manner while economic activity indicators soften. In addition, expectations that President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan may be materially watered-down, by almost one-half, raised expectations that Fed accommodation would be extended longer than anticipated when the stimulus plan was first announced. As such, the current distraction may be credit positive. Meanwhile, U.S. CCC-rated indexes compressed into uncharted territory as CCC-index yields hit all-time lows. Asia risk asset followed, although the credit spread relationship between these two geographies remains far from the norm.  We note that credits only have limited upside in the reflation scenario.  Please see Bank Credit Weekly: Moving the Goal Posts for more on this. A delay in the reflation scenario could also benefit Asia-headquartered risk assets.In addition, just as the US-dollar media narrative began to change from one of universal weakening to strengthening, US-dollar strengthening stopped. Declining odds on a large federal stimulus package likely arrested dollar strength. We present our US-dollar views inside and why it may be short-term Asia credit positive.Meanwhile, Fed officials are not reading from the same song sheet. Admonishing others to avoid asset purchase tapering discussions at the Fed is tantamount to a Say no Evil, Hear no Evil strategy. This is misguided as an open discussion could limit volatility once tapering begins. Please see last week’s Bank Credit Weekly: Distractions May Drive Markets Near Term for more on this. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will discuss the FOMC’s decisions on Wednesday, 27 January.Against this backdrop, almost all of Asia’s bank debt tightened during the week. Improved risk sentiment, the arrest of a stronger US-dollar, EM inflows and country specific announcements drove these results. In particular, the Reserve Bank of India’s proposal to revise the regulatory framework for India’s non-bank finance companies likely had a positive impact on the US-dollar bonds of these institutions.Several Asia-headquartered banks reported earnings as the week ended and into the weekend. Asia bank earnings season is upon us. However, we note that asset quality indicators at many banks greatly underestimate the level of troubled debt within the institution as forbearance measures remain in place in several operating environments. This is driving provisioning costs lower than would be expected in a more normal operating environment. The value of these earnings reports is significantly diminished for credit investors. As such, credit value should remain driven by larger market forces.Market Outlook: The distraction of another set of impeachment proceedings could turn out to be market friendly if it results in more targeted stimulus. Outside of the Washington beltway, the real issue of how much is too much stimulus as the vaccine is rolled-out will lead to concerns on when the Fed begins to taper its asset purchases. Credit has limited upside in a fast reflation scenario. A slower, more contained, reflation environment could be Emerging Market credit supportive.

Risk Assets Are Supported by a Distracted Congress and Accommodative Fed

Goldilocks may morph into a market wolf if the US Senate changes leadership while 100 mask wearing days haunts of Jimmy Carter-like sentiment. This is not priced in and these changes may limit the annual January bounce.Also, there is a risk that the market has gotten ahead of itself as bank management’s loss expectations are yet to be tested. US bank earnings announcements at mid-month will be watched for signs of management concern as well as dividend expectations. January’s top 10 performers could have distinctively lower risk profiles.Idiosyncratic plus vaccine impact expectations drove December performance. As such, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia (23 HK)</a> and Thai Bank Additional Tier 1 (AT1) securities outperformed in Asia, albeit for differing reasons.While Thai bank bonds rode the wave of enthusiasm following announcements of Coronavirus vaccines, Bank of East Asia’s notes gained on credit technical reasons. Similarly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vietnam-prosperity-jsc-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26914:1" rel="noopener">Vietnam Prosperity's (VPB VN)</a> bond rose on vaccine developments while Ardshindbank and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-minsheng-banking-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:655:1" rel="noopener">China Minsheng  (600016 CH)</a> gained as their respective credit situations improved.Bank of East Asia’s decision to retire its December callable Additional Tier 1 bonds woke the market to our insight several months earlier that this debt is inefficient capital. Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-of-east-asia-buy-the-inefficient-capital-securities" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42753" rel="noopener">Buy the Inefficient Capital Securities</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-of-east-asia-move-to-overweight-the-capital-inefficient-securities-from-buy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45652" rel="noopener">Move to Overweight the Capital Inefficient Securities from Buy</a> for more details.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yes-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:767:1" rel="noopener">YES Bank (YES IN)</a> led spread widening. Having hit par at one point during December, investors followed our recommendation to lighten exposure. Please see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yes-bank-par-is-plenty-move-to-underweight" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46120" rel="noopener">Par Is Plenty- Move to Underweight</a> for more details.In a positive sign from a vaccine momentum perspective, the positive spread movement amongst Thailand’s AT1 bonds continued throughout December. Nonetheless, we see this as a cognitive dissonance trade which ignores vaccine distribution and time extension risks. Rolling lockdowns do not improve consumer confidence and lower Q1 economic output in Europe and the US may ensue. This could impact Asia asset values and our preference would be to fade the rally in Thai bank AT1.

Goldilocks may morph into a market wolf if the US Senate changes leadership while 100 mask wearing days haunts of Jimmy Carter-like sentiment. This is not priced in and these changes may limit the annual January bounce.Also, there is a risk that the market has gotten ahead of itself as bank management’s loss expectations are yet to be tested. US bank earnings announcements at mid-month will be watched for signs of management concern as well as dividend expectations. January’s top 10 performers could have distinctively lower risk profiles.Idiosyncratic plus vaccine impact expectations drove December performance. As such, Bank of East Asia (23 HK) and Thai Bank Additional Tier 1 (AT1) securities outperformed in Asia, albeit for differing reasons.While Thai bank bonds rode the wave of enthusiasm following announcements of Coronavirus vaccines, Bank of East Asia’s notes gained on credit technical reasons. Similarly, Vietnam Prosperity's (VPB VN) bond rose on vaccine developments while Ardshindbank and China Minsheng  (600016 CH) gained as their respective credit situations improved.Bank of East Asia’s decision to retire its December callable Additional Tier 1 bonds woke the market to our insight several months earlier that this debt is inefficient capital. Please see Buy the Inefficient Capital Securities and Move to Overweight the Capital Inefficient Securities from Buy for more details.YES Bank (YES IN) led spread widening. Having hit par at one point during December, investors followed our recommendation to lighten exposure. Please see: Par Is Plenty- Move to Underweight for more details.In a positive sign from a vaccine momentum perspective, the positive spread movement amongst Thailand’s AT1 bonds continued throughout December. Nonetheless, we see this as a cognitive dissonance trade which ignores vaccine distribution and time extension risks. Rolling lockdowns do not improve consumer confidence and lower Q1 economic output in Europe and the US may ensue. This could impact Asia asset values and our preference would be to fade the rally in Thai bank AT1.

Bank Credit Compass: Regime Change May Limit the Annual January Bounce

The worse the economic news, the greater the expectation of US federal stimulus, the more the market rallies. Investors may be surprised to find that recent federal stimulus discussions are more appearance than substance. The balance of the US Senate is at stake and this posturing plays right into that election.Despite the overall improved risk tone, emerging market capital inflows flattened to remain at their highest levels since mid-February. This is surprising as almost everyone expects a weakening dollar next year. This is not a good sign. So long as yields are rising due to economic growth expectations, all is good; however, if yields are rising due to increasing inflation expectations, then a market correction is inevitable as investors re-assess policymaker’s commitment. Much depends on what and how the Fed communicates. Signs of wavering from overshooting inflation targets could spark a mini-taper tantrum.While global risk sentiment strengthened, Asia’s high yield markets outperformed the US indexes. Asia’s outperformance was likely due to more encouraging news from the region in terms of November’s PMIs which went down well with increased US federal stimulus expectations. Nonetheless, Asia’s HY index still has considerable room to catch-up with the US index. This difference was at its widest level in over 10-years recently and had hit a low of 1.45pp three months ago. This volatility seems overdone. We believe this to be due to US market irrational exuberance although increased concerns on the health of China’s debt issuers also played a part. Rising expectations for the Fed to take bond-supportive policy steps and the potential for another round of fiscal stimulus also play in the market dynamics. However, the Fed may not move before knowing the outcome of the Senate elections and federal stimulus discussions may be a false dawn. As such, we continue to suggest positioning for spread compression between the US and Asia HY indexes via the US Caa-rated index level.Within this environment, Asia’s High Yield bank bonds continued to outperform, although almost all bank bond prices rose on increased risk sentiment. Asia’s lowest rated bank bonds led in terms of spread outperformance. However, a Fed-influenced cap on US longer-term rates may not be bank friendly. We caution bank investors that Fed programs are forever, so be careful what you wish for. Remember when Quantitative Easing ended?Market Outlook: The question now is whether the federal stimulus discussion is about economic or political reality. We hope that our US federal stimulus cynicism is proven incorrect. Assuming we are incorrect, tension between longer-term optimism from vaccine driven economies and the shorter-term reality of increasing Coronavirus lockdowns may then weigh on the market. The recent surge in bullish sentiment raises the question of whether it is sustainable or if a correction may be around the corner, possibly due to the lack of Fed action in its asset purchase program. We are now more deeply set-up for buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact profit taking.

The worse the economic news, the greater the expectation of US federal stimulus, the more the market rallies. Investors may be surprised to find that recent federal stimulus discussions are more appearance than substance. The balance of the US Senate is at stake and this posturing plays right into that election.Despite the overall improved risk tone, emerging market capital inflows flattened to remain at their highest levels since mid-February. This is surprising as almost everyone expects a weakening dollar next year. This is not a good sign. So long as yields are rising due to economic growth expectations, all is good; however, if yields are rising due to increasing inflation expectations, then a market correction is inevitable as investors re-assess policymaker’s commitment. Much depends on what and how the Fed communicates. Signs of wavering from overshooting inflation targets could spark a mini-taper tantrum.While global risk sentiment strengthened, Asia’s high yield markets outperformed the US indexes. Asia’s outperformance was likely due to more encouraging news from the region in terms of November’s PMIs which went down well with increased US federal stimulus expectations. Nonetheless, Asia’s HY index still has considerable room to catch-up with the US index. This difference was at its widest level in over 10-years recently and had hit a low of 1.45pp three months ago. This volatility seems overdone. We believe this to be due to US market irrational exuberance although increased concerns on the health of China’s debt issuers also played a part. Rising expectations for the Fed to take bond-supportive policy steps and the potential for another round of fiscal stimulus also play in the market dynamics. However, the Fed may not move before knowing the outcome of the Senate elections and federal stimulus discussions may be a false dawn. As such, we continue to suggest positioning for spread compression between the US and Asia HY indexes via the US Caa-rated index level.Within this environment, Asia’s High Yield bank bonds continued to outperform, although almost all bank bond prices rose on increased risk sentiment. Asia’s lowest rated bank bonds led in terms of spread outperformance. However, a Fed-influenced cap on US longer-term rates may not be bank friendly. We caution bank investors that Fed programs are forever, so be careful what you wish for. Remember when Quantitative Easing ended?Market Outlook: The question now is whether the federal stimulus discussion is about economic or political reality. We hope that our US federal stimulus cynicism is proven incorrect. Assuming we are incorrect, tension between longer-term optimism from vaccine driven economies and the shorter-term reality of increasing Coronavirus lockdowns may then weigh on the market. The recent surge in bullish sentiment raises the question of whether it is sustainable or if a correction may be around the corner, possibly due to the lack of Fed action in its asset purchase program. We are now more deeply set-up for buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact profit taking.

Bank Credit Weekly: New Equation Is Bad News = Buy

Vietnam

Vietnam Prosperity Joint Stock Commercial Bank (VPBank) provides commercial banking services. The Bank offers domestic remittance services, savings account, personal loans, e-banking, trade financing, deposits, tax payment, foreign exchange, cash management, and other banking services. VPBank serves customers in Vietnam.

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Vietnam Prosperity Bank (VPB VN)

Bank Credit Compass: Credit Tourist May Vacate if Real Fundamentals Do Not Catch-Up

Credit tourists may vacate if economic growth and real credit fundaments are not delivered. The gap between credit spreads and fundamentals is...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Bank Credit Weekly: GameStop Is Noise, Not a Signal, for Risk Assets

GME is noise, not a signal. Economic growth and monetary policy remain the drivers for credit markets. Reconciliation or negotiation equal the same...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Risk Assets Are Supported by a Distracted Congress and Accommodative Fed

Declining odds on a large US federal stimulus package likely arrested US-dollar strength. A slower, more contained, reflation environment could...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Bank Credit Compass: Regime Change May Limit the Annual January Bounce

Goldilocks may morph into a market wolf if the US Senate changes hands while 100 mask wearing days haunts of Carter-like sentiment. This is not...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Bank Credit Weekly: New Equation Is Bad News = Buy

The worse the economic news, the greater the expectation of US federal stimulus, the more the market rallies. We are now more set-up for buy-the...

Hank Calenti, CFA

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