Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this review, we predict that Thai equities will rally in October and early November before another major correction in December with the Fed rate hike. In the short term, we expect Thai banks to do well, as they and Asian counterparts (eg. Singapore's DBS) benefit in terms of relative growth if the US banks are hampered by the regulator's decision to increase capital requirements of the largest banks. We also see two companies run by Thailand's second richest tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, namely BJC and Thai Beverage, outperforming companies run by the larger CP Group, primarily due to corporate action and a market's tilt towards consumers and retailing sectors. Needless to say, we will be tactically overweight on banks, retailers, and consumers over the next two months.We also discuss: 1) the overall upgrade of Thailand's growth expectations on the back of stronger domestic consumption; and 2) highight the government's five strategic sectors, named 'The 5 S-Curves'.

In this review, we predict that Thai equities will rally in October and early November before another major correction in December with the Fed rate hike. In the short term, we expect Thai banks to do well, as they and Asian counterparts (eg. Singapore's DBS) benefit in terms of relative growth if the US banks are hampered by the regulator's decision to increase capital requirements of the largest banks. We also see two companies run by Thailand's second richest tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, namely BJC and Thai Beverage, outperforming companies run by the larger CP Group, primarily due to corporate action and a market's tilt towards consumers and retailing sectors. Needless to say, we will be tactically overweight on banks, retailers, and consumers over the next two months.We also discuss: 1) the overall upgrade of Thailand's growth expectations on the back of stronger domestic consumption; and 2) highight the government's five strategic sectors, named 'The 5 S-Curves'.

American Capital Requirement Increase: Charoen and Thai Banks to Lead October Rally

Equity Bottom-Up

CP All, one of our top five stock picks, reached Bt60/sh yesterday, and we are switching to BTS, Thailand's skytrain monopoly. Both BTS and BEM have high valuations, but we prefer the thought process that went behind BTS's platform more than BEM. BEM combined a subway and expressway monopoly; we fail to see synergies between the two. On the other hand, BTS tries to capture value in all facets of the skytrain operation from transport/tickets to transit advertising (VGI and MACO) and property via joint ventures with Sansiri and GLAND. There is also a nice yield pickup compared to the more defensive choice of BTSGIF, its affiliated infrastructure fund.

CP All, one of our top five stock picks, reached Bt60/sh yesterday, and we are switching to BTS, Thailand's skytrain monopoly. Both BTS and BEM have high valuations, but we prefer the thought process that went behind BTS's platform more than BEM. BEM combined a subway and expressway monopoly; we fail to see synergies between the two. On the other hand, BTS tries to capture value in all facets of the skytrain operation from transport/tickets to transit advertising (VGI and MACO) and property via joint ventures with Sansiri and GLAND. There is also a nice yield pickup compared to the more defensive choice of BTSGIF, its affiliated infrastructure fund.

Thailand

VGI Public Company Limited operates as an advertising media company. The Company offers out of home advertising, campaign measurement, target advertising campaign, and offline-to-online solutions. VGI serves customers globally.

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VGI PCL (VGI TB)

American Capital Requirement Increase: Charoen and Thai Banks to Lead October Rally

In this review, we predict that Thai equities will rally in October and early November before another major correction in December with the Fed...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

BTS Vs BEM: Battle of the Train Boys

CP All, one of our top five stock picks, reached Bt60/sh yesterday, and we are switching to BTS, Thailand's skytrain monopoly. Both BTS and BEM...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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