Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We expect 5 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-100-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36051:1" rel="noopener">Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance. The review period ends on 31 January and the announcement should be late February.</li>
<li>The largest impact of passive trading will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/page-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4940:1" rel="noopener">Page Industries (PAG IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/biocon-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:398:1" rel="noopener">Biocon Ltd (BIOS IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mphasis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7672:1" rel="noopener">Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abb-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8703:1" rel="noopener">ABB India Ltd (ABB IN)</a>. </li>
<li>There are quite a few overlaps with the AMFI reclassification of stocks and there could be buying and selling from active fund managers over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


We expect 5 changes to the Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX) at the March rebalance. The review period ends on 31 January and the announcement should be late February.
The largest impact of passive trading will be on Page Industries (PAG IN), Biocon Ltd (BIOS IN), Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) and ABB India Ltd (ABB IN). 
There are quite a few overlaps with the AMFI reclassification of stocks and there could be buying and selling from active fund managers over the next few weeks.


NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Active Trading Before Passive Trading Kicks In

<ul>
<li>Near the end of the review period, we see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 from LargeCap to MidCap, 8 from SmallCap to MidCap and vice versa.</li>
<li>One spin-off should be added to the MidCap segment, while a bunch of recent listings will be added to the SmallCap segment.</li>
<li>Stock migrating upwards have outperformed stocks migrating downwards and we expect there could be some mean reversion from the middle of January.</li>
</ul>


Near the end of the review period, we see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 from LargeCap to MidCap, 8 from SmallCap to MidCap and vice versa.
One spin-off should be added to the MidCap segment, while a bunch of recent listings will be added to the SmallCap segment.
Stock migrating upwards have outperformed stocks migrating downwards and we expect there could be some mean reversion from the middle of January.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2022): A Bunch of Migrations

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Axis Top Picks basket delivered impressive returns of 18%/19% in the last 6M/1YR respectively, outperforming the benchmark Index NIFTY 50 by an encouraging margin.</li><li>In Nov’22, the basket inched up further by 1%.</li><li>Furthermore, It has delivered an impressive return of 153% since its inception (May'20), which stands significantly higher than the 102% returns delivered by NIFTY 50 over the same period.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Top Picks basket delivered impressive returns of 18%/19% in the last 6M/1YR respectively, outperforming the benchmark Index NIFTY 50 by an encouraging margin.In Nov’22, the basket inched up further by 1%.Furthermore, It has delivered an impressive return of 153% since its inception (May'20), which stands significantly higher than the 102% returns delivered by NIFTY 50 over the same period.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Top Picks for the Month of December 2022

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In Nov 2021, Sapphire Foods Limited (SFL), one of Yum Brand’s franchisees in the Indian subcontinent, raised around US$280m in its Indian IPO. </li>
<li>The lock-up on its shareholders will expire soon, with a number of PE funds on its register</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.</li>
</ul>


In Nov 2021, Sapphire Foods Limited (SFL), one of Yum Brand’s franchisees in the Indian subcontinent, raised around US$280m in its Indian IPO. 
The lock-up on its shareholders will expire soon, with a number of PE funds on its register
In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.


Sapphire Foods IPO - Smallish Stock with Big (US$550m) Multiple PE Lockup Expiry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Varun Beverages Limited (VBL) Q3CY22 result was robust and ahead of our and consensuses estimates.</li><li>The strong performance was led by a healthy revenue growth of ~32% YoY (~22% on a 3-Year CAGR), volume growth of 24% to 190 Mn cases, and realization growth of ~7% to Rs 167/case.</li><li>The management alluded to strong volume growth of 22% (India business) and 31% (international), coupled with strong growth in Sting led the overall topline growth.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Varun Beverages Limited (VBL) Q3CY22 result was robust and ahead of our and consensuses estimates.The strong performance was led by a healthy revenue growth of ~32% YoY (~22% on a 3-Year CAGR), volume growth of 24% to 190 Mn cases, and realization growth of ~7% to Rs 167/case.The management alluded to strong volume growth of 22% (India business) and 31% (international), coupled with strong growth in Sting led the overall topline growth.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Varun Beverages Ltd - Robust Performance; Beat in Expectations on All Fronts

India

Varun Beverages Limited produces and distributes beverages. The Company offers carbonated soft drinks and non-alcoholic beverages, as well as provides packaged drinking water. Varun Beverages serves customers worldwide.

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Varun Beverages (VBL IN)

NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Active Trading Before Passive Trading Kicks In

There should be 5 changes to the NIFTY100 in March. Quite a few names overlap with the potential AMFI reclassification of stocks which will result...

Brian Freitas

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2022): A Bunch of Migrations

Near the end of the review period, we see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 from LargeCap to MidCap, 8 from SmallCap to MidCap and vice...

Brian Freitas

Axis Top Picks for the Month of December 2022

Axis Top Picks basket delivered impressive returns of 18%/19% in the last 6M/1YR respectively, outperforming the benchmark Index NIFTY 50 by an...

Axis Direct

Sapphire Foods IPO - Smallish Stock with Big (US$550m) Multiple PE Lockup Expiry

In Nov 2021, Sapphire Foods Limited, one of Yum Brand’s franchisees in the Indian subcontinent, raised around US$280m in its Indian IPO. In this...

Sumeet Singh

Varun Beverages Ltd - Robust Performance; Beat in Expectations on All Fronts

The strong performance was led by a healthy revenue growth of ~32% YoY (~22% on a 3-Year CAGR), volume growth of 24% to 190 Mn cases, and...

Axis Direct

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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