Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

WK 23: Mon 6 Jun 2016. (As always thoughts/comments welcome…)Global Macro Take: WK 23 – RBA, RBNZ but really all about US Bonds<ul><li>Market will continue to digest the huge NFP miss 38k a vs. 160k e, with implications into the USD &amp; the Fed</li><li>Yellen’s round table today on Economic Outlook &amp; Monetary Policy will be heavily watched</li><li>Busy week on the central bank front with decisions due out from the like of RBA, RBI, RBNZ &amp; that’s just a taste…</li><li>US bonds, the consensus long trade it seems, what (if anything) are real rates telling us? Nobody seems to believe in US inflation</li></ul>

WK 23: Mon 6 Jun 2016. (As always thoughts/comments welcome…)Global Macro Take: WK 23 – RBA, RBNZ but really all about US BondsMarket will continue to digest the huge NFP miss 38k a vs. 160k e, with implications into the USD &amp; the FedYellen’s round table today on Economic Outlook &amp; Monetary Policy will be heavily watchedBusy week on the central bank front with decisions due out from the like of RBA, RBI, RBNZ &amp; that’s just a taste…US bonds, the consensus long trade it seems, what (if anything) are real rates telling us? Nobody seems to believe in US inflation

TGIM! @KVP_Macro - WK 23. Mon 6 Jun. The Global Macro Take: RBA, RBNZ but Really All About US Bonds

Global Macro Take: WK 22 – DXY is going back to 100<ul><li>Again its all about the US Dollar &amp; upcoming Fed hikes, nothing else matters…</li><li>DXY at 95.52 +0.20% for WK 21, is up 4 wks in a row – but you still ain’t seen nothing yet, we should be in the 96-97 range by now</li><li>As per the thesis from last week, Fed implied rate hike probabilities continue to grind up – yet year end expectations of one &amp; two hikes still too low at 74% &amp; 25%. Market is still asleep</li><li>Jun now has a 30% chance, whilst Jul (KVP’s pick) has now moved from c. 48% to 54% in the span of a week</li><li>WK ahead will be filled with Final PMIs, US ISM will be key as will NFP. ECB? Non-event</li></ul>

Global Macro Take: WK 22 – DXY is going back to 100Again its all about the US Dollar &amp; upcoming Fed hikes, nothing else matters…DXY at 95.52 +0.20% for WK 21, is up 4 wks in a row – but you still ain’t seen nothing yet, we should be in the 96-97 range by nowAs per the thesis from last week, Fed implied rate hike probabilities continue to grind up – yet year end expectations of one &amp; two hikes still too low at 74% &amp; 25%. Market is still asleepJun now has a 30% chance, whilst Jul (KVP’s pick) has now moved from c. 48% to 54% in the span of a weekWK ahead will be filled with Final PMIs, US ISM will be key as will NFP. ECB? Non-event

TGIM! @KVP_Macro - WK22. Mon 30 May 2016. The Global Macro Take: DXY Is Going Back to 100

Probably the next most important thing is actually not the Brexit, but the next few Fed hikes<ul><li>Whilst Jun is live, I think Jul or Sep are more likely with the second hike in Dec, those Fed minutes from last week left very little to the imagination. They were hawkish</li><li>Fed implied probability of two rate hikes by year end is too low at 25%, should be closer to 50. The street is behind the curve on this and/or does not believe it (ripples with 2015)</li><li>Where does the DXY go, given we got to 100.17 (Nov 30) going into just one rate hike in Dec last year? Where do US 10yrs go, given we are at 1.83% &amp; we were c. 2.30% in Dec last year?</li><li>Flash PMI themed week ahead, including key GDP readings out of Europe. UK will get 2nd GDP reading with mkt expecting +2.1% YoY</li></ul>

Probably the next most important thing is actually not the Brexit, but the next few Fed hikesWhilst Jun is live, I think Jul or Sep are more likely with the second hike in Dec, those Fed minutes from last week left very little to the imagination. They were hawkishFed implied probability of two rate hikes by year end is too low at 25%, should be closer to 50. The street is behind the curve on this and/or does not believe it (ripples with 2015)Where does the DXY go, given we got to 100.17 (Nov 30) going into just one rate hike in Dec last year? Where do US 10yrs go, given we are at 1.83% &amp; we were c. 2.30% in Dec last year?Flash PMI themed week ahead, including key GDP readings out of Europe. UK will get 2nd GDP reading with mkt expecting +2.1% YoY

Global Macro Take: WK 21 – The Fed To Hike Over The Next 3 Meetings [Jun 15, Jul 27, Sep 21]

<ul><li>Key close on DXY above 94.50 on a Friday, liquidating my thesis on a tactical USD liquidation phase. Seems like we’ve now had a very sharp V-shaped bounce from the pullback 2 wks back</li><li>If the strong USD trend continues, we’d expect risk-off to be the flavour of the moment with EM, Commodities &amp; equities in general set to decline</li><li>Check out the long NOKSEK SaxoStrats idea flagged by our Head of FX Strategy John Hardy – I like the thesis, it definitely worth doing some heavy lifting on this</li><li>Plus a few links to the Sohn Investment Conference where movers &amp; shakers such as Chanos &amp; Druckenmiller were talking their views </li></ul>

Key close on DXY above 94.50 on a Friday, liquidating my thesis on a tactical USD liquidation phase. Seems like we’ve now had a very sharp V-shaped bounce from the pullback 2 wks backIf the strong USD trend continues, we’d expect risk-off to be the flavour of the moment with EM, Commodities &amp; equities in general set to declineCheck out the long NOKSEK SaxoStrats idea flagged by our Head of FX Strategy John Hardy – I like the thesis, it definitely worth doing some heavy lifting on thisPlus a few links to the Sohn Investment Conference where movers &amp; shakers such as Chanos &amp; Druckenmiller were talking their views 

Global Macro Take: WK 20 – The US Dollar Just Won't Die

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

Global equities look tired and are exhibiting investor fears over diminishing capacity for and returns from further global monetary policy easing.  Policymakers are admitting problems and looking more impatiently to governments to step up efforts to stimulate growth with fiscal stimulus and structural reform.  However, significant progress on this front almost seems hopeless and central banks are being forced reluctantly to do more.  These same fears have returned in China with its capital markets displaying a lack of confidence in the sustainability of policies aimed at boosting growth, as rapid credit expansion yields little overall economic advance. In this environment we expect gold to continue its advance.  However, gold has been boosted recently by the surge in JPY and overall weakness in the USD.  These trends may be tired with Japanese policy makers stepping up their threats of intervention and further policy easing, while US rate hike expectations have been pushed further out and strength in US labor data this week may support the USD.  As such we now see long gold/short JPY as offering a better reward for risk.

Global equities look tired and are exhibiting investor fears over diminishing capacity for and returns from further global monetary policy easing.  Policymakers are admitting problems and looking more impatiently to governments to step up efforts to stimulate growth with fiscal stimulus and structural reform.  However, significant progress on this front almost seems hopeless and central banks are being forced reluctantly to do more.  These same fears have returned in China with its capital markets displaying a lack of confidence in the sustainability of policies aimed at boosting growth, as rapid credit expansion yields little overall economic advance. In this environment we expect gold to continue its advance.  However, gold has been boosted recently by the surge in JPY and overall weakness in the USD.  These trends may be tired with Japanese policy makers stepping up their threats of intervention and further policy easing, while US rate hike expectations have been pushed further out and strength in US labor data this week may support the USD.  As such we now see long gold/short JPY as offering a better reward for risk.

AmpGFX - Frustration, Despair and Case for Gold/JPY

United States

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the FTSE Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds large and mid-cap stocks in emerging markets around the world. Brazil, Russia, India, Taiwan, China, and South Africa are among the markets included. The ETF weights these holdings based on market capitalization.

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO US)

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO US)

TGIM! @KVP_Macro - WK 23. Mon 6 Jun. The Global Macro Take: RBA, RBNZ but Really All About US Bonds

WK 23: Mon 6 Jun 2016. (As always thoughts/comments welcome…)Global Macro Take: WK 23 – RBA, RBNZ but really all about US Bonds Market will...

Kay Van-Petersen

TGIM! @KVP_Macro - WK22. Mon 30 May 2016. The Global Macro Take: DXY Is Going Back to 100

Global Macro Take: WK 22 – DXY is going back to 100 Again its all about the US Dollar & upcoming Fed hikes, nothing else matters… DXY at 95.52...

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Take: WK 21 – The Fed To Hike Over The Next 3 Meetings [Jun 15, Jul 27, Sep 21]

Probably the next most important thing is actually not the Brexit, but the next few Fed hikes Whilst Jun is live, I think Jul or Sep are more...

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Take: WK 20 – The US Dollar Just Won't Die

Key close on DXY above 94.50 on a Friday, liquidating my thesis on a tactical USD liquidation phase. Seems like we’ve now had a very sharp...

Kay Van-Petersen

AmpGFX - Frustration, Despair and Case for Gold/JPY

Global equities look tired and are exhibiting investor fears over diminishing capacity for and returns from further global monetary policy easing. ...

Greg Gibbs