Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Australia Real estate / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>Global Macro Take: WK 22 – DXY is going back to 100</strong></p><ul><li>Again its all about the US Dollar &amp; upcoming Fed hikes, nothing else matters…</li><li>DXY at 95.52 +0.20% for WK 21, is up 4 wks in a row – but you still ain’t seen nothing yet, we should be in the 96-97 range by now</li><li>As per the thesis from last week, Fed implied rate hike probabilities continue to grind up – yet year end expectations of one &amp; two hikes still too low at 74% &amp; 25%. Market is still asleep</li><li>Jun now has a 30% chance, whilst Jul (KVP’s pick) has now moved from c. 48% to 54% in the span of a week</li><li>WK ahead will be filled with Final PMIs, US ISM will be key as will NFP. ECB? Non-event</li></ul>

Global Macro Take: WK 22 – DXY is going back to 100Again its all about the US Dollar &amp; upcoming Fed hikes, nothing else matters…DXY at 95.52 +0.20% for WK 21, is up 4 wks in a row – but you still ain’t seen nothing yet, we should be in the 96-97 range by nowAs per the thesis from last week, Fed implied rate hike probabilities continue to grind up – yet year end expectations of one &amp; two hikes still too low at 74% &amp; 25%. Market is still asleepJun now has a 30% chance, whilst Jul (KVP’s pick) has now moved from c. 48% to 54% in the span of a weekWK ahead will be filled with Final PMIs, US ISM will be key as will NFP. ECB? Non-event

Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties (1567411D HK)

Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A) (600837 CH)

Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. (600000 CH)

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO US)

China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co., (601601 CH)

TGIM! @KVP_Macro - WK22. Mon 30 May 2016. The Global Macro Take: DXY Is Going Back to 100