Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.</li>
<li>Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.</li>
<li>We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The SPX and QQQ still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
Even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). Anything above 4800 SPX is a buy.
We continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes/Sectors with long-term breakouts, the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes. Clearly risk-on behavior.


Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook initiated on November 7, 2023 remains intact; this intermediate-to-long-term outlook is likely to stay in place as long as 4800 support holds on the SPX (7-10% downside).</li>
<li>To be clear, we aren't calling for a pullback to 4800; we view it as a worst-case scenario for the S&amp;P 500, and we want to be prepared for anything.</li>
<li>Shorter-Term, we remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook initiated on November 7, 2023 remains intact; this intermediate-to-long-term outlook is likely to stay in place as long as 4800 support holds on the SPX (7-10% downside).
To be clear, we aren't calling for a pullback to 4800; we view it as a worst-case scenario for the S&amp;P 500, and we want to be prepared for anything.
Shorter-Term, we remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.


Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Broadening Participation

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tuhu-car" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36012:1" rel="noopener">Tuhu Car (2007986D HK)</a>, a leading integrated online and offline platform for automotive service in China, has launched its HKEx IPO at a price range of HK$28.00-31.00 per share.</li>
<li>In <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tuhu-car-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:112644" rel="noopener">TUHU Car IPO: The Investment Case</a></em></strong>, we highlighted the key elements of the investment case. In this note, we present our forecasts and discuss valuation.</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that Tuhu is reasonably priced at the IPO price range. We would participate in the IPO. </li>
</ul>



Tuhu Car (2007986D HK), a leading integrated online and offline platform for automotive service in China, has launched its HKEx IPO at a price range of HK$28.00-31.00 per share.
In TUHU Car IPO: The Investment Case, we highlighted the key elements of the investment case. In this note, we present our forecasts and discuss valuation.
Our valuation analysis suggests that Tuhu is reasonably priced at the IPO price range. We would participate in the IPO. 


High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Earnings Season Thus Far- Meanwhile Mixed Economic Messages Earnings season picks up this week with the technology heavyweights like Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are all set to report their results.</li><li>During the upcoming week, 180 S&amp;P 500 companies (including 14 Dow 30 components) are scheduled to report results for the first quarter.</li><li>Overall, 18% of the companies in the S&amp;P 500 have reported actual results for Q1 2023 to date.</li></ul>

Earnings Season Thus Far- Meanwhile Mixed Economic Messages Earnings season picks up this week with the technology heavyweights like Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are all set to report their results.During the upcoming week, 180 S&amp;P 500 companies (including 14 Dow 30 components) are scheduled to report results for the first quarter.Overall, 18% of the companies in the S&amp;P 500 have reported actual results for Q1 2023 to date.

United States

Valvoline Inc. manufactures and distributes automotive lubricants and chemicals. The Company offers motor oil, additives, antifreeze, brake fluid, and grease products. Valvoline also owns the oil change and express care chains of car repair centers.

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Valvoline (VVV US)

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging and Frontier Markets $EEM $FM; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ; Treasury Yields and Commodities Rising YTD has...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact; Broadening Participation

Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ $NDX $IWM $RTY $IJH $MDY $VXF; Broadening Participation (NYSE Net New...

Vermilion Research

TUHU Car IPO: Valuation Insights

Tuhu has launched its HKEx IPO at a price range of HK$28.00-31.00 per share. Our valuation analysis suggests that Tuhu is reasonably priced at the...

Arun George

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 4/24

During the upcoming week, 180 S&P 500 companies (including 14 Dow 30 components) are scheduled to report results for the first quarter.

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

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