Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Improvements in Japan are leading broad developed int’l indexes higher. The MSCI EAFE, local currency is bullishly inflecting above its downtrend and putting an end to the YTD pattern of lower highs. Both the TOPIX and Nikkei 225 have continued to improve, and now the TOPIX Small index is also bullishly inflecting. We provide a technical appraisal of major global markets, and highlight a number of actionable stocks within Japan, and across international markets.

Improvements in Japan are leading broad developed int’l indexes higher. The MSCI EAFE, local currency is bullishly inflecting above its downtrend and putting an end to the YTD pattern of lower highs. Both the TOPIX and Nikkei 225 have continued to improve, and now the TOPIX Small index is also bullishly inflecting. We provide a technical appraisal of major global markets, and highlight a number of actionable stocks within Japan, and across international markets.

MSCI EAFE Inflecting, Aided by Strength in Japan

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

INTRODUCTION - The final part of our Results and Forecast/Revision Scores review will look at the leading and lagging performers and forecasters among larger and middle capitalisation companies in Japan based on their most recent quarterly results and forecasts. The data series covers over 160,000 quarterly results and 120,000 initial forecasts or forecasts revisions. The scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of data for revenues, operating income and operating margin and measure for each metric the rate, degree and consistency of change. Each score ranges from a maximum of +30 to a minimum of -30 for each period. Please refer to Part 1 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-scoring-results-forecasts-earnings-momentum-slowing-weaker-required" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:20302">Japan: Scoring Results &amp; Forecasts</a> for more details on the scoring methodology. The tables below give the top and bottom five companies in each category.RESULTS SCORE TOP 5<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/053/547/original/2018-05-27_18-38-25.png?1527413921" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="53547"></figure>RESULTS SCORE BOTTOM 5<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/053/548/original/2018-05-27_18-41-29.png?1527414102" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="53548"></figure><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Legend: ▲ and ▼ arrows indicate Score changes in the top and bottom ten percent, respectively. The Relative Price Score measures the difference between the current relative price and the mean absolute deviation of relative prices since listing which allows for a comparison of all companies on the same absolute scale. We consider differences in the top or bottom percentiles of historical observations to be 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' and these states mark them "•" and "+", respectively.  Valuation 'QUADrants' group companies into the top and bottom 20% of TTM PER and PBR ranges and categorise companies that are outliers in both into four quadrants: "FP" = Fully Priced, "SP" = Speculative, "MT" = Mature and "DV" = Deep Value. Rows are colour-coded based on the sector to which each company belongs. </div>FORECAST/REVISION SCORE TOP 5<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/053/551/original/2018-05-27_18-47-10.png?1527414449" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="53551"></figure>FORECAST/REVISION SCORE BOTTOM 5<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/053/552/original/2018-05-27_18-47-59.png?1527414502" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="53552"></figure><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Forecasts older than 180 days are excluded. The Forecast Accuracy Score is a measure of a company’s forecast accuracy-very time and is derived from the cumulative deviations of the Revenue and Operating Income forecasts from the year-end results. 100 is a perfect score; there is no minimum score. The fewer and the more accurate the forecasts, the higher the score.  A score of over 70 indicates that the current forecast is likely to be achieved. Where there is insufficient data, or if the company has not made any forecasts in the last five years, the column entry will be blank. </div>FORECAST/REVISION SCORE &amp; RESULTS SCORE DIFFERENCE TOP 5<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/053/555/original/2018-05-27_18-53-42.png?1527414845" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="53555"></figure>FORECAST/REVISION SCORE &amp; RESULTS SCORE DIFFERENCE BOTTOM 5<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/053/556/original/2018-05-27_18-54-24.png?1527414885" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="53556"></figure><div class="content-caption">All tables &gt; Source: Japan Analytics</div>In addition, we provide five actionable longs and five actionable shorts where we see a significant divergence between the business performance and relative prices.

INTRODUCTION - The final part of our Results and Forecast/Revision Scores review will look at the leading and lagging performers and forecasters among larger and middle capitalisation companies in Japan based on their most recent quarterly results and forecasts. The data series covers over 160,000 quarterly results and 120,000 initial forecasts or forecasts revisions. The scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of data for revenues, operating income and operating margin and measure for each metric the rate, degree and consistency of change. Each score ranges from a maximum of +30 to a minimum of -30 for each period. Please refer to Part 1 Japan: Scoring Results &amp; Forecasts for more details on the scoring methodology. The tables below give the top and bottom five companies in each category.RESULTS SCORE TOP 5RESULTS SCORE BOTTOM 5Legend: ▲ and ▼ arrows indicate Score changes in the top and bottom ten percent, respectively. The Relative Price Score measures the difference between the current relative price and the mean absolute deviation of relative prices since listing which allows for a comparison of all companies on the same absolute scale. We consider differences in the top or bottom percentiles of historical observations to be 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' and these states mark them "•" and "+", respectively.  Valuation 'QUADrants' group companies into the top and bottom 20% of TTM PER and PBR ranges and categorise companies that are outliers in both into four quadrants: "FP" = Fully Priced, "SP" = Speculative, "MT" = Mature and "DV" = Deep Value. Rows are colour-coded based on the sector to which each company belongs. FORECAST/REVISION SCORE TOP 5FORECAST/REVISION SCORE BOTTOM 5Forecasts older than 180 days are excluded. The Forecast Accuracy Score is a measure of a company’s forecast accuracy-very time and is derived from the cumulative deviations of the Revenue and Operating Income forecasts from the year-end results. 100 is a perfect score; there is no minimum score. The fewer and the more accurate the forecasts, the higher the score.  A score of over 70 indicates that the current forecast is likely to be achieved. Where there is insufficient data, or if the company has not made any forecasts in the last five years, the column entry will be blank. FORECAST/REVISION SCORE &amp; RESULTS SCORE DIFFERENCE TOP 5FORECAST/REVISION SCORE &amp; RESULTS SCORE DIFFERENCE BOTTOM 5All tables &gt; Source: Japan AnalyticsIn addition, we provide five actionable longs and five actionable shorts where we see a significant divergence between the business performance and relative prices.

Japan: Scoring Results & Forecasts - Part 3 - Company Winners & Losers

Japan

ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. offers Internet marketing solutions through affiliate program management services.  The Company also provides SEM (Search Engine Marketing) and SEO (Search Engine Optimization) services.  ValueCommerce also provides consulting services.

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Valuecommerce (2491 JP)

MSCI EAFE Inflecting, Aided by Strength in Japan

Improvements in Japan are leading broad developed int’l indexes higher. The MSCI EAFE, local currency is bullishly inflecting above its downtrend...

Vermilion Research

Japan: Scoring Results & Forecasts - Part 3 - Company Winners & Losers

INTRODUCTION - The final part of our Results and Forecast/Revision Scores review will look at the leading and lagging performers and forecasters...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)