Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Iron ore continued to operate in its band from 95-130 USD/ton over the last few years, with a recent drop from 120 USD/ton to 105 USD/ton on tepid China data.</li>
<li>With incremental news on China's stimulus in the property and infrastructure sectors, we remain confident that iron ore will return to 120 USD/ton in the short term. </li>
<li>We also remain bullish on the 65-62 spread, which has expanded to the teens. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">Vale (VALE US)</a>  are good plays on the spread.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore continued to operate in its band from 95-130 USD/ton over the last few years, with a recent drop from 120 USD/ton to 105 USD/ton on tepid China data.
With incremental news on China's stimulus in the property and infrastructure sectors, we remain confident that iron ore will return to 120 USD/ton in the short term. 
We also remain bullish on the 65-62 spread, which has expanded to the teens. Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) and Vale (VALE US)  are good plays on the spread.


Iron Ore: Disappointing Data Pushed Price Down to 105, Bounce To 120 On Further Stimulus From China

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan remain key underweights.  Recovery in Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey, and South Africa, correction in Indonesia and Mexico. Developed Markets the largest overweight for EM investors.</li>
<li>Discretionary, Staples, and Industrials the key overweights, Materials and Energy the underweights. Rotation out of Tech moves positioning from overweight to underweight for the first time since 2019.</li>
<li>Ownership climbs for Meituan and SK Hynix, Baidu and Yum China see sharp declines. Downtrends persist in Vale, Telkom Indonesia.  Recovery in SK Telekom, Garanti Bank, highs in Emaar Properties. </li>
</ul>


China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan remain key underweights.  Recovery in Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey, and South Africa, correction in Indonesia and Mexico. Developed Markets the largest overweight for EM investors.
Discretionary, Staples, and Industrials the key overweights, Materials and Energy the underweights. Rotation out of Tech moves positioning from overweight to underweight for the first time since 2019.
Ownership climbs for Meituan and SK Hynix, Baidu and Yum China see sharp declines. Downtrends persist in Vale, Telkom Indonesia.  Recovery in SK Telekom, Garanti Bank, highs in Emaar Properties. 


<ul>
<li>After a brief spell of iron ore prices rising to 108 USD/ton, prices have retraced to 102 USD/ton (-3% WoW) but remain broadly in the 95-130 USD/ton band.</li>
<li>Investors were disappointed with China's announced stimulus measures, citing their vagueness and lack of a specific timetable, resulting in the positive sentiment waning over the last two weeks.</li>
<li>We update investors on <span>Vale's (VALE US) recent <a href="https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/53207d1c-63b4-48f1-96b7-19869fae19fe/f3e7e25d-31a1-8e6d-107d-e05c2eb8e08b?origin=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposal </a></span>to the government to settle the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariana_dam_disaster" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mariana Dam</a> disaster.</li>
</ul>


After a brief spell of iron ore prices rising to 108 USD/ton, prices have retraced to 102 USD/ton (-3% WoW) but remain broadly in the 95-130 USD/ton band.
Investors were disappointed with China's announced stimulus measures, citing their vagueness and lack of a specific timetable, resulting in the positive sentiment waning over the last two weeks.
We update investors on Vale's (VALE US) recent proposal to the government to settle the Mariana Dam disaster.


Iron Ore Tracker (21-Oct-2024): China Positive Sentiment Waning

<ul>
<li>A slew of policies announced by the Chinese government led to a short squeeze in the iron ore market, with prices moving up 20% from the lows to 108 USD/ton.</li>
<li>Mill margins inflected into positive territory, and iron ore, after gapping below its band of 95-130 USD/ton for the last 3.5 years, is now back in its normalized range. </li>
<li>While the current move was unexpected, we expect the euphoria to last a while as more clarity on the stimulus emerges and ore prices tick up short-term.</li>
</ul>


A slew of policies announced by the Chinese government led to a short squeeze in the iron ore market, with prices moving up 20% from the lows to 108 USD/ton.
Mill margins inflected into positive territory, and iron ore, after gapping below its band of 95-130 USD/ton for the last 3.5 years, is now back in its normalized range. 
While the current move was unexpected, we expect the euphoria to last a while as more clarity on the stimulus emerges and ore prices tick up short-term.


Iron Ore Tracker (7-Oct-2024): Sentiment Swing With China Stimulus

<ul>
<li>Iron ore broke out of its three-year band two weeks ago and, after a brief recovery, trended lower by 9% WoW. It is now within touching distance of 90 USD/ton. </li>
<li>Chinese steel margins showed no signs of improving, with the average mills losing 70-80 USD/ton. Iron ore inventories continued to climb at the ports, exceeding 150 million tons.</li>
<li>We would stay clear of iron ore names for the time being as we wait for iron ore to consolidate at some levels. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore broke out of its three-year band two weeks ago and, after a brief recovery, trended lower by 9% WoW. It is now within touching distance of 90 USD/ton. 
Chinese steel margins showed no signs of improving, with the average mills losing 70-80 USD/ton. Iron ore inventories continued to climb at the ports, exceeding 150 million tons.
We would stay clear of iron ore names for the time being as we wait for iron ore to consolidate at some levels. 


Iron Ore Tracker (9-Sep-2024): Short-Term Bearish Signals More Prominent

Brazil

Vale S.A. produces and sells iron ore, pellets, manganese, alloys, gold, nickel, copper, kaolin, bauxite, alumina, aluminum, and potash. The Company is based in Brazil, where it owns and operates railroads and maritime terminals.

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Vale (VALE US)

Iron Ore: Disappointing Data Pushed Price Down to 105, Bounce To 120 On Further Stimulus From China

We provide our take on the China data like TSF, auto sales and property that led to the sell-off in iron ore. We provide our rationale for an iron...

Sameer Taneja

Active GEM Funds: Positioning Chart Pack

In this chart pack, we highlight the key country, sector and stock exposures among active Emerging Markets equity funds.

Steven Holden

Iron Ore Tracker (21-Oct-2024): China Positive Sentiment Waning

The positive sentiment in iron ore lasted only two weeks as China disappointed investors with its announcements on the stimulus plan. This leaves...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Tracker (7-Oct-2024): Sentiment Swing With China Stimulus

We get more constructive in the short term, with China stimulus measures likely to result in a sizeable short squeeze for iron ore. Iron ore could...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Tracker (9-Sep-2024): Short-Term Bearish Signals More Prominent

With iron ore prices breaking below 95 USD/ton, we become more bearish in the short term. We track indicators like mill margins, inventories, and...

Sameer Taneja

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