Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Janus Analysis

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul class="">
<li>Iron Ore fallen &gt;27% in nine days, trader driven, as opposed to fundamentals</li>
<li>Chinese iron ore consumption growth &gt;4% over the pcp</li>
<li>Supply shortages structural, limited capacity for near-term iron ore expansion</li>
<li>Retain BUY recommendation on FMG, Rio Tinto, BHP</li>
<li>Change SELL recommendation on Vale to HOLD</li>
<li>China actively exploring demand-side solutions, increased infrastructure investment</li>
<li>Yuan devaluation unlikely to adversely impact domestic seaborne iron ore demand</li>
<li>Decline in the LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent) price accelerating</li>
<li>Re-iterate SELL on all Lithium Explorers</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">Vale SA (VALE US), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-billiton-ltd-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5424:1" rel="noopener">Bhp Billiton Ltd (Adr) (BHP US), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU, </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pensana-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2106:1" rel="noopener">Pensana Metals (PM8 AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peel-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4111:1" rel="noopener">Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azumah-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5124:1" rel="noopener">Azumah Resources (AZM AU), Ausmex (ASX: AMG), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/navarre-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2688:1" rel="noopener">Navarre Minerals (NML AU)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azumah-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5124:1" rel="noopener">, Ekorre Resources (ASX: ERX), Bardoc (ASX: BDC), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emerald-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17495:1" rel="noopener">Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vango-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19897:1" rel="noopener">Vango Mining (VAN AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emmerson-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18705:1" rel="noopener">Emmerson Resources (ERM AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/firestone-diamonds-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23522:1" rel="noopener">Firestone Diamonds (FDI LN), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7038:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Resources (AGS AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackstone-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28181:1" rel="noopener">Blackstone Minerals Ltd (BSX AU), Spectrum Metals (AS: SPX), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atrum-coal-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9553:1" rel="noopener">Atrum Coal Nl (ATU AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkane-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19111:1" rel="noopener">Alkane Resources (ALK AU), Blackcat (ASX: BC8), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cardinal-resources-ltd-9e1d58d4-8d9b-48dd-a059-3f04f896e3ee" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28182:1" rel="noopener">Cardinal Resources Ltd (CDV CN), Bellevue Gold (ASX: BGL), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/breaker-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19210:1" rel="noopener">Breaker Resources Nl (BRB AU)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cardinal-resources-ltd-9e1d58d4-8d9b-48dd-a059-3f04f896e3ee" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28182:1" rel="noopener"> </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azumah-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5124:1" rel="noopener">      </a>
</li>
</ul>


Iron Ore fallen &gt;27% in nine days, trader driven, as opposed to fundamentals
Chinese iron ore consumption growth &gt;4% over the pcp
Supply shortages structural, limited capacity for near-term iron ore expansion
Retain BUY recommendation on FMG, Rio Tinto, BHP
Change SELL recommendation on Vale to HOLD
China actively exploring demand-side solutions, increased infrastructure investment
Yuan devaluation unlikely to adversely impact domestic seaborne iron ore demand
Decline in the LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent) price accelerating
Re-iterate SELL on all Lithium Explorers

Fortescue Metals (FMG AU), Vale SA (VALE US), Bhp Billiton Ltd (Adr) (BHP US), Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU, Pensana Metals (PM8 AU), Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU), Azumah Resources (AZM AU), Ausmex (ASX: AMG), Navarre Minerals (NML AU), Ekorre Resources (ASX: ERX), Bardoc (ASX: BDC), Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU), Vango Mining (VAN AU), Emmerson Resources (ERM AU), Firestone Diamonds (FDI LN), Alliance Resources (AGS AU), Blackstone Minerals Ltd (BSX AU), Spectrum Metals (AS: SPX), Atrum Coal Nl (ATU AU), Alkane Resources (ALK AU), Blackcat (ASX: BC8), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Cardinal Resources Ltd (CDV CN), Bellevue Gold (ASX: BGL), Breaker Resources Nl (BRB AU)       



New J Hutton – Exploration Report Pt 1 (Weeks Ending 02/08/19)

<ul>
<li>Initiate on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20374" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)</a> as a BUY</li>
<li>Six Chinese SOEs control ~78% of global primary REE supply</li>
<li>Est. China processes &gt;90% of global REE concentrate</li>
<li>LYC is the only LREE producer outside China of any note</li>
<li>Current focus on environmental problems and future capex secondary concerns</li>
<li>Potential mine expansion at Mt Weld</li>
<li>MOU regarding strategic processing in the US</li>
<li>Future margin expansion following recent REE price rises (~33% in a week)</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2106" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2106:1">Pensana Metals (PM8 AU)</a> as a Speculative BUY</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4111" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4111:1">Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU)</a> focus on Mallee Bull a possible distraction</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6698" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27844" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27844:1">Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN)</a>, Black Cat Syndicate (ASX: BC8), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20488" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2971" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2971:1">Hawkstone Mining (HWK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/28006" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14062" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14062:1">Troy Resources (TRY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15518" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15518:1">Australian Vanadium (AVL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15374" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1">Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19897" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19897:1">Vango Mining (VAN AU)</a>, Carawine Resources (ASX: CWX)</li>
</ul>


Initiate on Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) as a BUY
Six Chinese SOEs control ~78% of global primary REE supply
Est. China processes &gt;90% of global REE concentrate
LYC is the only LREE producer outside China of any note
Current focus on environmental problems and future capex secondary concerns
Potential mine expansion at Mt Weld
MOU regarding strategic processing in the US
Future margin expansion following recent REE price rises (~33% in a week)
Pensana Metals (PM8 AU) as a Speculative BUY

Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU) focus on Mallee Bull a possible distraction

Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN), Black Cat Syndicate (ASX: BC8), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Hawkstone Mining (HWK AU), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Troy Resources (TRY AU), Australian Vanadium (AVL AU), Predictive Discovery (PDI AU), Vango Mining (VAN AU), Carawine Resources (ASX: CWX)


New J Hutton – Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 31/05/19)

<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23731" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1">Vale SA (VALE US)</a> woes continue, facing another dam collapse</li>
<li>Forecast seaborne iron ore market deficit &gt;100Mt CY19</li>
<li>Chinese house prices up 10% y-o-y</li>
<li>Chinese Government readying substantial investment stimulus</li>
<li>Continue to positively trade large IO miners</li>
<li>5-year gold price continues to be flat</li>
<li>Global Zinc inventories declining rapidly</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23731" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1">Vale SA (VALE US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5424" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5424:1">Bhp Billiton Ltd (Adr) (BHP US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/41" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5124" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5124:1">Azumah Resources (AZM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4111" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4111:1">Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19210" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19210:1">Breaker Resources Nl (BRB AU)</a>, Pensana Metals (ASX: PM8), Axion (ASX: AZQ), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19111" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19111:1">Alkane Resources (ALK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1365" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1365:1">Chesser Resources (CHZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2971" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2971:1">Hawkstone Mining (HWK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20488" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4650" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/28006" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11138" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11138:1">Hot Chili Ltd (HCH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12048" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12048:1">Newfield Resources (NWF AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7068" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7068:1">Lucapa Diamond (LOM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8807" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8807:1">Theta Gold Mines (TGM AU</a>), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16357" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16357:1">Emperor Range (ERX AU)</a>  </li>
</ul>


Vale SA (VALE US) woes continue, facing another dam collapse
Forecast seaborne iron ore market deficit &gt;100Mt CY19
Chinese house prices up 10% y-o-y
Chinese Government readying substantial investment stimulus
Continue to positively trade large IO miners
5-year gold price continues to be flat
Global Zinc inventories declining rapidly

Vale SA (VALE US), Bhp Billiton Ltd (Adr) (BHP US), Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU),Fortescue Metals (FMG AU), Azumah Resources (AZM AU), Peel Mining Ltd (PEX AU), Breaker Resources Nl (BRB AU), Pensana Metals (ASX: PM8), Axion (ASX: AZQ), Alkane Resources (ALK AU), Chesser Resources (CHZ AU), Hawkstone Mining (HWK AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Hot Chili Ltd (HCH AU), Newfield Resources (NWF AU), Lucapa Diamond (LOM AU), Theta Gold Mines (TGM AU), Emperor Range (ERX AU)  


New J Hutton – Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 17/05/19)

Over 25-yrs in Global Materials & Soft Commodities

Charles Spencer

Angang Steel Co Ltd (H) / Equity Bottom-Up

INVESTMENT VIEW:  The outlook for Angang’s profitability in 2019 is deteriorating quicker than consensus forecasts, we believe.  Chinese steel demand and pricing are forecast to be weak in 2019, yet raw material costs remain high.  We recommend staying short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/203" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:203:1">Angang Steel Co Ltd (H) (347 HK)</a> shares with a PT of HK$5.

INVESTMENT VIEW:  The outlook for Angang’s profitability in 2019 is deteriorating quicker than consensus forecasts, we believe.  Chinese steel demand and pricing are forecast to be weak in 2019, yet raw material costs remain high.  We recommend staying short Angang Steel Co Ltd (H) (347 HK) shares with a PT of HK$5.

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<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23731" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1">Vale SA (VALE US)</a> have had two major fatal dam-failures in three years</li>
<li>Possible (probable?) design flaw</li>
<li>Expect all Vale's iron ore operations to be technically audited</li>
<li>Substantial Management &amp; Board changes inevitable</li>
<li>Probability that a portion of Vale's existing operations will fail engineering inspection.</li>
<li>Forecast resultant capacity constraints</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/147" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1">Bhp Billiton (BHP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/41" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> to benefit from lost production</li>
</ul>



Vale SA (VALE US) have had two major fatal dam-failures in three years
Possible (probable?) design flaw
Expect all Vale's iron ore operations to be technically audited
Substantial Management &amp; Board changes inevitable
Probability that a portion of Vale's existing operations will fail engineering inspection.
Forecast resultant capacity constraints

Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU),  Bhp Billiton (BHP AU), Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) to benefit from lost production


Vale in Trouble - Expect Rio, BHP, FMG to Benefit (Flash Note)

Brazil

Vale S.A. produces and sells iron ore, pellets, manganese, alloys, gold, nickel, copper, kaolin, bauxite, alumina, aluminum, and potash. The Company is based in Brazil, where it owns and operates railroads and maritime terminals.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Vale (VALE US)

New J Hutton – Exploration Report Pt 1 (Weeks Ending 02/08/19)

Iron Ore fallen >27% in nine days, trader driven, as opposed to fundamentals Chinese iron ore consumption growth >4% over the pcp Supply...

Gaius King

New J Hutton – Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 31/05/19)

Initiate on Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) as a BUY Six Chinese SOEs control ~78% of global primary REE supply Est. China processes >90% of global REE...

Gaius King

New J Hutton – Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 17/05/19)

Vale SA (VALE US) woes continue, facing another dam collapse Forecast seaborne iron ore market deficit >100Mt CY19 Chinese house prices up 10%...

Gaius King

Angang Steel: Headwinds Intensify

INVESTMENT VIEW: The outlook for Angang’s profitability in 2019 is deteriorating quicker than consensus forecasts, we believe. Chinese steel...

Charles Spencer

Vale in Trouble - Expect Rio, BHP, FMG to Benefit (Flash Note)

Vale SA (VALE US) have had two major fatal dam-failures in three years Possible (probable?) design flaw Expect all Vale's iron ore operations to...

Boost Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)