Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

LR Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-highlight">1.  Catalonia's parliament voted for full independence - with the Spanish government about to apply Constitutional rule 155 and take over Catalonia's government and police force this declaration is no real surprise.  Catalonia cannot force through independence, therefore we just see uncertainty growing for the Spanish economy.  We are growing more and more concerned about certain governments in Europe and the EU's support.  There is a clear difference in the way the UK has dealt with the issue…</div>

1.  Catalonia's parliament voted for full independence - with the Spanish government about to apply Constitutional rule 155 and take over Catalonia's government and police force this declaration is no real surprise.  Catalonia cannot force through independence, therefore we just see uncertainty growing for the Spanish economy.  We are growing more and more concerned about certain governments in Europe and the EU's support.  There is a clear difference in the way the UK has dealt with the issue…

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Global technicals remain on a bullish footing. There’s a lot to like across global markets, chart-wise, particularly the catering-sized amount of base patterns. These patterns, which act as foundations for rallies, are visible throughout developed and emerging markets, pointing to another leg higher and endorsing our positive outlook.In our October Strategy (See attached), we highlight actionable themes in EM, Energy, and materials.  The attached document also contains links to an in-depth analysis of each of our 12 sectors.

Global technicals remain on a bullish footing. There’s a lot to like across global markets, chart-wise, particularly the catering-sized amount of base patterns. These patterns, which act as foundations for rallies, are visible throughout developed and emerging markets, pointing to another leg higher and endorsing our positive outlook.In our October Strategy (See attached), we highlight actionable themes in EM, Energy, and materials.  The attached document also contains links to an in-depth analysis of each of our 12 sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight EM, Japan Breaking Out, Europe in Recovery

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

• Pullback opportunities are prevalent in Europe and Japan. Both markets are testing key support levels, presenting attractive entry points. We see little reason to abandon our bullish outlooks for both markets... see page 2• Overweight Materials Sector. We highlight actionable names within the materials sector as global miners continue to emerge from base patterns, most of which still yield attractive entry points, including Vale (VALE) and Rio Tinto (RIO-GB)... see pages 3-5• Opportunities in China. This week we highlight attractive set-ups in China.  Highlighted charts range from Baidu (BIDU) and Bank of China (3988-HK) to Fosun (656-HK) and China Southern Airlines (1055-HK)... see pages 6-8

• Pullback opportunities are prevalent in Europe and Japan. Both markets are testing key support levels, presenting attractive entry points. We see little reason to abandon our bullish outlooks for both markets... see page 2• Overweight Materials Sector. We highlight actionable names within the materials sector as global miners continue to emerge from base patterns, most of which still yield attractive entry points, including Vale (VALE) and Rio Tinto (RIO-GB)... see pages 3-5• Opportunities in China. This week we highlight attractive set-ups in China.  Highlighted charts range from Baidu (BIDU) and Bank of China (3988-HK) to Fosun (656-HK) and China Southern Airlines (1055-HK)... see pages 6-8

EM Is Cementing Its Leadership Status; Buy Miners

A wave of breakouts is visible throughout the global mining industry, where stocks are responding to long-term trend reversals in base metals, including aluminum, copper, and zinc. This is one of our favorite themes, one that we have highlighted extensively over the past several months, especially in our weekly International Compass But is it too late to add exposure? No. Most names, including Alcoa (AA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Norsk Hydro (NHY-NO), are just beginning to break out this week.In today’s report we highlight a selection of actionable charts within this theme, sorted by market capitalization.

A wave of breakouts is visible throughout the global mining industry, where stocks are responding to long-term trend reversals in base metals, including aluminum, copper, and zinc. This is one of our favorite themes, one that we have highlighted extensively over the past several months, especially in our weekly International Compass  But is it too late to add exposure? No. Most names, including Alcoa (AA), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Norsk Hydro (NHY-NO), are just beginning to break out this week.In today’s report we highlight a selection of actionable charts within this theme, sorted by market capitalization.

Materials, IPO & Equity Analyst

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

Equity Bottom-Up

Initiating coverage of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24163" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24163:1">Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO LN)</a> with a target of £2.10/sh.<ol class=""><li>Markets are unduly concerned about the geopolitical risks and balance sheet risk. We do not anticipate any significant geopolitical or default risk to warrant the massive discount.</li><li>Balance sheet deleverage expected to continue in FY17, internal cash generation sufficient to repay debt, may require some refinancing at iron ore price &lt; US$50/t</li><li>New Projects and Brown field expansions expected to increase value by as much as 18% to base case </li><li>FXPO is valued at £2.73/share, an upside of ~60% to last close price.</li></ol>

Initiating coverage of Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO LN) with a target of £2.10/sh.Markets are unduly concerned about the geopolitical risks and balance sheet risk. We do not anticipate any significant geopolitical or default risk to warrant the massive discount.Balance sheet deleverage expected to continue in FY17, internal cash generation sufficient to repay debt, may require some refinancing at iron ore price &lt; US$50/tNew Projects and Brown field expansions expected to increase value by as much as 18% to base case FXPO is valued at £2.73/share, an upside of ~60% to last close price.

FXPO: Geopolitical & Balance Sheet Risks Overblown; Deep Discount Provides Buying Opportunity

Brazil

Vale S.A. produces and sells iron ore, pellets, manganese, alloys, gold, nickel, copper, kaolin, bauxite, alumina, aluminum, and potash. The Company is based in Brazil, where it owns and operates railroads and maritime terminals.

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Vale (VALE3 BZ)

21 Things Worth Knowing Today (Issue 2)

1. Catalonia's parliament voted for full independence - with the Spanish government about to apply Constitutional rule 155 and take over...

Mark Artherton

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight EM, Japan Breaking Out, Europe in Recovery

Global technicals remain on a bullish footing. There’s a lot to like across global markets, chart-wise, particularly the catering-sized amount of...

Vermilion Research

EM Is Cementing Its Leadership Status; Buy Miners

• Pullback opportunities are prevalent in Europe and Japan. Both markets are testing key support levels,presenting attractive entry points. We see...

Vermilion Research

Global Miners Are Breaking Out -- Buy

A wave of breakouts is visible throughout the global mining industry, where stocks are responding to long-term trend reversals in base metals,...

Vermilion Research

FXPO: Geopolitical & Balance Sheet Risks Overblown; Deep Discount Provides Buying Opportunity

Initiating coverage of Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO LN) with a target of £2.10/sh. Markets are unduly concerned about the geopolitical risks and balance...

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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