Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We still see signs suggesting a test of the lows or a break to new lows is increasingly likely on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>One of those signs is the fact that defensives (Utilities, Staples, pharma, Real Estate) remain at new RS highs.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, WTI crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.</li>
</ul>


We still see signs suggesting a test of the lows or a break to new lows is increasingly likely on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
One of those signs is the fact that defensives (Utilities, Staples, pharma, Real Estate) remain at new RS highs.
Meanwhile, WTI crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.


Sticking With Commodity and Defensive Sectors; Buying Coal, Steel, Gold Stocks

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bifurcation between large-cap growth and small-caps that we discussed last week has continued, where small-caps have generally not been participating in the rally.</li>
<li>As we said last week, this bifurcation can continue, but it is not the type of breadth that supports a sustainable new bull market.</li>
<li>We need to see the Russell 2000 (IWM) stay above $209 in order to have confidence that the bottom is in. Meanwhile, stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.</li>
</ul>


The bifurcation between large-cap growth and small-caps that we discussed last week has continued, where small-caps have generally not been participating in the rally.
As we said last week, this bifurcation can continue, but it is not the type of breadth that supports a sustainable new bull market.
We need to see the Russell 2000 (IWM) stay above $209 in order to have confidence that the bottom is in. Meanwhile, stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.


Bifurcation Continues; Banks, Semiconductors, Small-Caps, Homebuilders Remain Concerns

<ul>
<li>As we noted last week, $209 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) is arguably the most significant resistance level of all right now.</li>
<li>We would like the see a break above $209 on the IWM in order to have a sustainable new bull market.</li>
<li>4590-4600 is a significant resistance level on the S&amp;P 500 we are watching; if bears fail to show up there, next up would likely be a test of all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


As we noted last week, $209 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) is arguably the most significant resistance level of all right now.
We would like the see a break above $209 on the IWM in order to have a sustainable new bull market.
4590-4600 is a significant resistance level on the S&amp;P 500 we are watching; if bears fail to show up there, next up would likely be a test of all-time highs.


Russell 2000 (IWM) Still Testing $209 Resistance: Actionable Groups: Insurance, Shipping, Utilities

<ul>
<li>Our key "lines in the sand" were tested last week, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on QQQ, 33,250 on the DJIA, and $102.50 on the S&amp;P 600 (IJR).</li>
<li>After a brief dip below these levels, buyers immediately stepped up and reclaimed these supports. It was a clear win for the bulls (for now).</li>
<li>Attractive and actionable Groups highlighted include fertilizer (ag chemicals), aerospace/defense, and shipping.</li>
</ul>


Our key "lines in the sand" were tested last week, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on QQQ, 33,250 on the DJIA, and $102.50 on the S&amp;P 600 (IJR).
After a brief dip below these levels, buyers immediately stepped up and reclaimed these supports. It was a clear win for the bulls (for now).
Attractive and actionable Groups highlighted include fertilizer (ag chemicals), aerospace/defense, and shipping.


Volatility & Consolidation Continues; Buying Ag Chemicals, Aerospace/Defense, and Shipping Stocks

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes are approaching critical support levels, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and 33,250 on the DJIA. These are our "lines-in-the-sand" moving forward.</li>
<li>We expect for supports to hold, but breakdowns below these levels would not be surprising and would likely mean an additional 8-15% downside based on measured moves.</li>
<li>Charts Highlighted: S&amp;P 500, QQQ, DJIA, Bitcoin, XLP, XLU, IWM, IJR, BKNG, EXPE, SABR, DESP, NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, RGLD, GFI, SBSW, and AU.</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes are approaching critical support levels, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and 33,250 on the DJIA. These are our "lines-in-the-sand" moving forward.
We expect for supports to hold, but breakdowns below these levels would not be surprising and would likely mean an additional 8-15% downside based on measured moves.
Charts Highlighted: S&amp;P 500, QQQ, DJIA, Bitcoin, XLP, XLU, IWM, IJR, BKNG, EXPE, SABR, DESP, NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, RGLD, GFI, SBSW, and AU.


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA Testing Support; Buying Gold Miners and Online Travel

United States

Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The Fund's objective is to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of The Utilities Select Sector Index. The Index includes communication services, electrical power providers and natural gas distributors.

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Utilities Select Sector Spdr (XLU US)

Sticking With Commodity and Defensive Sectors; Buying Coal, Steel, Gold Stocks

Crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the...

Vermilion Research

Bifurcation Continues; Banks, Semiconductors, Small-Caps, Homebuilders Remain Concerns

Several indexes remain below key resistance, including 4600 on $SPX, $110 on $QQEW, $209 on $IWM, $111 on $IJR, $507 on the $SOX index $SOXX, $73...

Vermilion Research

Russell 2000 (IWM) Still Testing $209 Resistance: Actionable Groups: Insurance, Shipping, Utilities

$209 on the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is arguably the most significant resistance level of all right now, and we would like the see a break above $209 in...

Vermilion Research

Volatility & Consolidation Continues; Buying Ag Chemicals, Aerospace/Defense, and Shipping Stocks

Moving forward we continue to expect more volatility and consolidation between 4257 and 4590-4595 on the S&P 500, and between $334 and $367 on the...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA Testing Support; Buying Gold Miners and Online Travel

Large-cap indexes are approaching critical support levels of 4257 on S&P 500, $334 on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and 33,250 on DJIA. These are our "lines in...

Vermilion Research

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