Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We see near-term upside risk to inflation. The labor market is softening in tandem with growth in real wages (rising LCI)</li>
<li>Consumer sentiment is shifting and spending is showing weakening tendencies. A 2024 services payrolls recession has to be the base-case still.</li>
<li>We remain invested in sectors with a high sales relative to employees. The current tightening cycle would be the most expeditious in history not to cause a recession, if the hopes of a soft- / no landing hold true.</li>
</ul>


We see near-term upside risk to inflation. The labor market is softening in tandem with growth in real wages (rising LCI)
Consumer sentiment is shifting and spending is showing weakening tendencies. A 2024 services payrolls recession has to be the base-case still.
We remain invested in sectors with a high sales relative to employees. The current tightening cycle would be the most expeditious in history not to cause a recession, if the hopes of a soft- / no landing hold true.


US Economy Watch: The Recession That Never Came… Or?

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The awkward and conflicting statement of the ECB accompanying the tenth and likely final rate increase.</li>
<li>Chinese credit growth remains tepid at best, signaling downside risks for equities and the Euro.</li>
<li>Three ugly UK recession charts this week will put additional pressure on the British Pound. And our Fear &amp; Frenzy is agonizingly close to Frenzy territory, triggering a sell signal.</li>
</ul>


The awkward and conflicting statement of the ECB accompanying the tenth and likely final rate increase.
Chinese credit growth remains tepid at best, signaling downside risks for equities and the Euro.
Three ugly UK recession charts this week will put additional pressure on the British Pound. And our Fear &amp; Frenzy is agonizingly close to Frenzy territory, triggering a sell signal.


The Weekly Market Monitor – The ECB’s Unreasonable Hike While the UK Falls into Recession

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly portfolio watch! In this piece, we look at the developments in our portfolio and try to assess the risk/reward in current markets.</li><li>Earlier this week, we received the monthly fund manager survey, and it seems like Energy remains underweight relative to benchmarks despite the recent performance.</li><li>Managers are also underweight equities in both Europe and the UK relative to benchmark allocations, while they also expect the Chinese economy to weaken further.</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly portfolio watch! In this piece, we look at the developments in our portfolio and try to assess the risk/reward in current markets.Earlier this week, we received the monthly fund manager survey, and it seems like Energy remains underweight relative to benchmarks despite the recent performance.Managers are also underweight equities in both Europe and the UK relative to benchmark allocations, while they also expect the Chinese economy to weaken further.

Portfolio Watch: Any juice left in the anti-Europe bet?

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul>
<li>Energy is the main culprit behind the reacceleration but it is also starting to spill-over the various broader goods categories.</li>
<li>The cyclical inflation pressure is back in the US before the inflation reaches its target.</li>
<li>It will be tricky for the Fed to get CPI/PCE back to 2% with these cyclical trends.</li>
</ul>


Energy is the main culprit behind the reacceleration but it is also starting to spill-over the various broader goods categories.
The cyclical inflation pressure is back in the US before the inflation reaches its target.
It will be tricky for the Fed to get CPI/PCE back to 2% with these cyclical trends.


PPI Nugget: New Pressures On Producer Prices To Come?

<ul>
<li>The ECB hiked as we anticipated and the EUR weakened materially alongside a dovish re-pricing of EUR rates.</li>
<li>Smack dab at our forecast and positioning, but is the ECB outlook fair at this point?</li>
<li>We find the updated staff projections amusing to say the least and hence also struggle to understand current market pricing of the ECB relative to peers.</li>
</ul>


The ECB hiked as we anticipated and the EUR weakened materially alongside a dovish re-pricing of EUR rates.
Smack dab at our forecast and positioning, but is the ECB outlook fair at this point?
We find the updated staff projections amusing to say the least and hence also struggle to understand current market pricing of the ECB relative to peers.


EUR watch: Why the ECB outlook is 100% off in 4 charts

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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US Economy Watch: The Recession That Never Came… Or?

Key takeaways up front: We see near-term upside risk to inflationThe labor market is softening in tandem with growth in real wages (rising...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – The ECB’s Unreasonable Hike While the UK Falls into Recession

Markets got a dovish ECB hike but wrapped in a highly conflicting message, and one that will likely qualify as a policy mistake in hindsight.

Jeroen Blokland

Portfolio Watch: Any juice left in the anti-Europe bet?

Welcome to our weekly portfolio watch! In this piece, we look at the developments in our portfolio and try to assess the risk/reward in current...

Steno Research

PPI Nugget: New Pressures On Producer Prices To Come?

Energy is the main culprit behind the reacceleration but it is also starting to spill-over the various broader goods categories. The cyclical...

Steno Research

EUR watch: Why the ECB outlook is 100% off in 4 charts

The ECB hiked as we anticipated and the EUR weakened materially alongside a dovish re-pricing of EUR rates. Smack dab at our forecast and...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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