FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The broad fall in the USD and lack of rates market response to a somewhat less dovish FOMC statement is curious and suggests that the Fed is suffering a credibility problem.  The market appears to doubt that the Fed will walk the talk.  A combination of diminishing yield and caution in equities markets after the post-Brexit surge appears to be boosting gold and high yield currencies, while low conviction position squaring may be boosting JPY and EUR. There does not appear to be a consistent thematic in the market and clearer direction may not arise until after the BoJ policy meeting on Friday.  In our report today we look at the upward trend in USD money market rates and cross-currency USD funding costs in recent months.  This could become a factor that adds support to the USD, although clearly that received little consideration today.

The broad fall in the USD and lack of rates market response to a somewhat less dovish FOMC statement is curious and suggests that the Fed is suffering a credibility problem.  The market appears to doubt that the Fed will walk the talk.  A combination of diminishing yield and caution in equities markets after the post-Brexit surge appears to be boosting gold and high yield currencies, while low conviction position squaring may be boosting JPY and EUR. There does not appear to be a consistent thematic in the market and clearer direction may not arise until after the BoJ policy meeting on Friday.  In our report today we look at the upward trend in USD money market rates and cross-currency USD funding costs in recent months.  This could become a factor that adds support to the USD, although clearly that received little consideration today.

AmpGFX - Fed Credibility Gap and Rising USD Borrowing Costs

The USD has been weak this year as the Fed has allowed global economic and financial market uncertainty to put its rate hikes on ice.  Domestic economic conditions have been resilient to global developments, but not strong enough to demand Fed action.  The rebound in US payrolls in June did more to boost US and global equities than to restore US rate hike expectations or boost the USD.  The Fed will probably upgrade its view on the economy, but this will do little to support the USD if the rest…

The USD has been weak this year as the Fed has allowed global economic and financial market uncertainty to put its rate hikes on ice.  Domestic economic conditions have been resilient to global developments, but not strong enough to demand Fed action.  The rebound in US payrolls in June did more to boost US and global equities than to restore US rate hike expectations or boost the USD.  The Fed will probably upgrade its view on the economy, but this will do little to support the USD if the rest…

AmpGFX - FOMC May Still Be Waiting for Clear Air from Abroad

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Counter trend rally call in the global cycle is now coming through after some heart wrenching support tests Thursday. We are targeting S&amp;P 1,918 with scope of reaching for 1,950 thus the most probable target comes in at 1,938.We touted putting on some risk and reducing shorts last week in anticipation of a risk on bounce sequence to re cycle shorts into.WTI called for rise from 28 was off the mark with a low at 26.19; rally target is pattern resistance at 34 but will have immediate trouble above 32. Upside from here will be harder. MT bear target in the 25 region.USD was due for profit taking versus the CAD in particular (slipping below our 1.42 dip target) but also versus some EM FX but our strategic bullish USD view remains firm against EM FX and commodity currencies. Euro is losing ground on stimulus jawboning while the GBP is oversold with sell resistance now at 1.45; our macro 1.35 target is in sight. USD/JPY to see rally to 119.40 if not 120 for a key turn lower again.EEM kissed our 27.50 major target to cover some shorts and the break above resistance on Friday triggered another reduce point for shorts with a 31-32 target to re cycle shorts for test on 26. Asian FX - Lock in gains in THB and MYR shorts. KRW and SGD shorts re cycle/add on chart dips. INR hit 68 in line with a Nifty low.Cycles – The current snap back rally cycle will see price swings moderate and expected to last into early February when a turn is very probable around the 5th.

Counter trend rally call in the global cycle is now coming through after some heart wrenching support tests Thursday. We are targeting S&amp;P 1,918 with scope of reaching for 1,950 thus the most probable target comes in at 1,938.We touted putting on some risk and reducing shorts last week in anticipation of a risk on bounce sequence to re cycle shorts into.WTI called for rise from 28 was off the mark with a low at 26.19; rally target is pattern resistance at 34 but will have immediate trouble above 32. Upside from here will be harder. MT bear target in the 25 region.USD was due for profit taking versus the CAD in particular (slipping below our 1.42 dip target) but also versus some EM FX but our strategic bullish USD view remains firm against EM FX and commodity currencies. Euro is losing ground on stimulus jawboning while the GBP is oversold with sell resistance now at 1.45; our macro 1.35 target is in sight. USD/JPY to see rally to 119.40 if not 120 for a key turn lower again.EEM kissed our 27.50 major target to cover some shorts and the break above resistance on Friday triggered another reduce point for shorts with a 31-32 target to re cycle shorts for test on 26. Asian FX - Lock in gains in THB and MYR shorts. KRW and SGD shorts re cycle/add on chart dips. INR hit 68 in line with a Nifty low.Cycles – The current snap back rally cycle will see price swings moderate and expected to last into early February when a turn is very probable around the 5th.

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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AmpGFX - Fed Credibility Gap and Rising USD Borrowing Costs

The broad fall in the USD and lack of rates market response to a somewhat less dovish FOMC statement is curious and suggests that the Fed is...

Greg Gibbs

AmpGFX - FOMC May Still Be Waiting for Clear Air from Abroad

The USD has been weak this year as the Fed has allowed global economic and financial market uncertainty to put its rate hikes on ice. Domestic...

Greg Gibbs

Measuring Rally Caps

Counter trend rally call in the global cycle is now coming through after some heart wrenching support tests Thursday. We are targeting S&P...

Thomas Schroeder

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