Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

FX & Rates

<p>This week brought important updates on Federal Reserve balance sheet policy from the New York Fed's annual report on open market operations, the FOMC minutes, and an interview with San Francisco Fed President John Williams.  These updates suggests primary dealers and market participants are under-estimating the likelihood that the Fed begins winding down its balance sheet this year by not reinvesting all of the Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities that mature.</p><p>The Federal Reserve Bank of New…</p>

This week brought important updates on Federal Reserve balance sheet policy from the New York Fed's annual report on open market operations, the FOMC minutes, and an interview with San Francisco Fed President John Williams.  These updates suggests primary dealers and market participants are under-estimating the likelihood that the Fed begins winding down its balance sheet this year by not reinvesting all of the Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities that mature.The Federal Reserve Bank of New…

An Update on the Fed's Balance Sheet Wind Down

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

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<strong>Chartonics FX webcast </strong>Thursday 6 April 2017</div><div><strong>DXY 100.60 inflection</strong></div><p>To view click on this link: <strong><a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/P1a202lrmb4" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.screencast.com/t/P1a202lrmb4&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1491538412295000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE5f9gzfrKC1a21Lx45xEa0qALNhg">https://www.screencast.com/t/P1a202lrmb4</a> </strong>11:16 min.</p><div>
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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/023/730/original/CPG%20INSERT.png?1491452125" data-smartkarma-image-id="23730"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div>
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<p><strong>DXY </strong>– DXY recovery off of 99 support is constructive as is upside pressure on 100.60 pivot resistance. Hugging this resistance does increase odds of clearing this hurdle which would be reason to increase USD long positioning. Only a break below DXY 99 would turn the bias bearish for the USD. US yields are at the bottom end of the range which…</p>
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Chartonics FX webcast Thursday 6 April 2017DXY 100.60 inflectionTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/P1a202lrmb4 11:16 min.

FX webcast

DXY – DXY recovery off of 99 support is constructive as is upside pressure on 100.60 pivot resistance. Hugging this resistance does increase odds of clearing this hurdle which would be reason to increase USD long positioning. Only a break below DXY 99 would turn the bias bearish for the USD. US yields are at the bottom end of the range which…


FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

<p><em>It is surprising to see US yields fall and the bond curve at its flattest point since December after the FOMC minutes where the Fed firmed up expectations it would begin its asset run-off later this year, after one or two more rate hikes. The fall in equities in recent weeks and lower bond yields may reflect the Trump administration’s setbacks and falling confidence that it can deliver tax reform. Additionally, there may be some worries over geopolitical risks as gas attacks in Syria and ballistic missile tests in North Korea add pressure on the Trump administration. As yet there is also no smoking gun on inflation in the USA and some mixed economic reports recently.  Lower equities and yields continue to support JPY and gold.  However, the Trump/Xi meeting has the potential to deliver soothing rhetoric for the equity market, and the ADP employment report was again much stronger than expected, raising the odds of a strong payrolls report.  This may lift US yields, and support the USD/JPY from the low end of its current range.  Much may depend on the wages data and indicators of tightness in labor market.</em></p>

It is surprising to see US yields fall and the bond curve at its flattest point since December after the FOMC minutes where the Fed firmed up expectations it would begin its asset run-off later this year, after one or two more rate hikes. The fall in equities in recent weeks and lower bond yields may reflect the Trump administration’s setbacks and falling confidence that it can deliver tax reform. Additionally, there may be some worries over geopolitical risks as gas attacks in Syria and ballistic missile tests in North Korea add pressure on the Trump administration. As yet there is also no smoking gun on inflation in the USA and some mixed economic reports recently.  Lower equities and yields continue to support JPY and gold.  However, the Trump/Xi meeting has the potential to deliver soothing rhetoric for the equity market, and the ADP employment report was again much stronger than expected, raising the odds of a strong payrolls report.  This may lift US yields, and support the USD/JPY from the low end of its current range.  Much may depend on the wages data and indicators of tightness in labor market.

Market yet to React to Approaching Fed Asset Run-Off

<p>The February report on personal income, consumer spending and PCE (personal consumption expenditure) prices for the U.S. was published on Friday.  Personal income rose 0.4% in February and real disposable income increased 0.2% in the month.  Nominal consumer spending rose 0.1% in February but declined 0.1% in inflation-adjusted terms.  Overall PCE prices rose 0.1% in February, raising the year-over-year headline inflation rate to 2.1% from 1.9%.  Core PCE prices (excluding food and energy) rose…</p>

The February report on personal income, consumer spending and PCE (personal consumption expenditure) prices for the U.S. was published on Friday.  Personal income rose 0.4% in February and real disposable income increased 0.2% in the month.  Nominal consumer spending rose 0.1% in February but declined 0.1% in inflation-adjusted terms.  Overall PCE prices rose 0.1% in February, raising the year-over-year headline inflation rate to 2.1% from 1.9%.  Core PCE prices (excluding food and energy) rose…

Rebutting Conventional Wisdom Takes on the U.S. Consumer, Inflation and the Fed from the Latest Data

<p><em>There are ongoing high levels of global uncertainty related to Brexit, uncertain US government policy direction, modest policy tightening in China, and central banks that are sending mixed signals.  There are contradictions in the market with very high consumer confidence in the USA, but a deteriorating approval rating for President Trump. Strong surveys, but modest economic activity readings. Ongoing optimism for tax reform in the US equity markets, but doubts apparent in somewhat lower US bond yields.  We continue to see risks of the Trump aura in equities fading on the tough road to tax reform.  This could undermine the USD further in coming months.  The EUR may benefit as evidence of recovery builds and French political risks fade. </em></p>

There are ongoing high levels of global uncertainty related to Brexit, uncertain US government policy direction, modest policy tightening in China, and central banks that are sending mixed signals.  There are contradictions in the market with very high consumer confidence in the USA, but a deteriorating approval rating for President Trump. Strong surveys, but modest economic activity readings. Ongoing optimism for tax reform in the US equity markets, but doubts apparent in somewhat lower US bond yields.  We continue to see risks of the Trump aura in equities fading on the tough road to tax reform.  This could undermine the USD further in coming months.  The EUR may benefit as evidence of recovery builds and French political risks fade. 

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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An Update on the Fed's Balance Sheet Wind Down

This week brought important updates on Federal Reserve balance sheet policy from the New York Fed's annual report on open market operations, the...

RDQ Economics

DXY 100.60 Inflection

Chartonics FX webcast Thursday 6 April 2017DXY 100.60 inflectionTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/P1a202lrmb4 11:16...

Thomas Schroeder

Market yet to React to Approaching Fed Asset Run-Off

It is surprising to see US yields fall and the bond curve at its flattest point since December after the FOMC minutes where the Fed firmed up...

Greg Gibbs

Rebutting Conventional Wisdom Takes on the U.S. Consumer, Inflation and the Fed from the Latest Data

The February report on personal income, consumer spending and PCE (personal consumption expenditure) prices for the U.S. was published on Friday....

RDQ Economics

Uncertainty and Contradictions

There are ongoing high levels of global uncertainty related to Brexit, uncertain US government policy direction, modest policy tightening in China,...

Greg Gibbs

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