Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

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<p>As Paul Newman famously quipped after bluffing his way to success in a poker game in the classic movie Cool Hand Luke, 'sometimes nothing is a real cool hand!'. It is doubtful whether Xi Jingping is big Paul Newman fan (although you never know!) but recent events suggest that the Chinese authorities may have been catching up on their old movies during the holiday season. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bonds-china/china-officials-recommend-slowing-or-halting-u-s-bond-purchases-bloomberg-idUSL8N1P52Q3" target="_blank">China's reported threat to the US that it may stop buying US Treasuries</a> looks a classic 'Cool Hand' strategy for the simple…</p>
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As Paul Newman famously quipped after bluffing his way to success in a poker game in the classic movie Cool Hand Luke, 'sometimes nothing is a real cool hand!'. It is doubtful whether Xi Jingping is big Paul Newman fan (although you never know!) but recent events suggest that the Chinese authorities may have been catching up on their old movies during the holiday season. 
China's reported threat to the US that it may stop buying US Treasuries looks a classic 'Cool Hand' strategy for the simple…


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p>We have held a resounding USD bear stance from DXY 101 which is still very supportive for emerging markets and Asian equities in Q1, within our melt up call. Increasing evidence points to the USD reaching a terminal low at some point in late Q1 that will produce initial headwinds for Asian and EM equities but will mount into the summer months. Weaker EM FX is the most vulnerable in Q2 (TRY, BRL, PHP, SGD and even a USD/THB low).</p><p>DXY cycle overlap with a pending exhaustive equity cycle lays out a…</p>

We have held a resounding USD bear stance from DXY 101 which is still very supportive for emerging markets and Asian equities in Q1, within our melt up call. Increasing evidence points to the USD reaching a terminal low at some point in late Q1 that will produce initial headwinds for Asian and EM equities but will mount into the summer months. Weaker EM FX is the most vulnerable in Q2 (TRY, BRL, PHP, SGD and even a USD/THB low).DXY cycle overlap with a pending exhaustive equity cycle lays out a…

Q1 USD Low to Front Run Q2 EEM Correction

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

FX & Rates

<p><strong>Exchange Rates: Determined By Numerous Forms of Capital Flows</strong></p><p>Current account balances necessitate a one-way offsetting capital flow of equal magnitude to prevent exchange rate fluctuations. The components of capital flows are, however, not homogenous in their behaviour. Consequently, the financial media often falls into the trap of solely stressing the perceived power of interest rate differentials in driving aggregate capital flows and, therefore, exchange rates.<em> The reality is, however, that</em>…</p>

Exchange Rates: Determined By Numerous Forms of Capital FlowsCurrent account balances necessitate a one-way offsetting capital flow of equal magnitude to prevent exchange rate fluctuations. The components of capital flows are, however, not homogenous in their behaviour. Consequently, the financial media often falls into the trap of solely stressing the perceived power of interest rate differentials in driving aggregate capital flows and, therefore, exchange rates. The reality is, however, that…

US/Euro Exchange Rate: When "Hot Money" Becomes Over-Hyped

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<p>How long can the US's extraordinary manufacturing boom, which we have been in the vanguard of highlighting, continue? The answer will, in turn, determine how long can global risk in general and cyclical stocks in particular continue to charge ahead as they done in the first few days of 2018?</p>
<p>Both in terms of duration and amplitude the US economy's surge is already approaching historical limits. ISM's near 40-year high reached back in September is almost certainly the cyclical peak, reached 21…</p>
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How long can the US's extraordinary manufacturing boom, which we have been in the vanguard of highlighting, continue? The answer will, in turn, determine how long can global risk in general and cyclical stocks in particular continue to charge ahead as they done in the first few days of 2018?
Both in terms of duration and amplitude the US economy's surge is already approaching historical limits. ISM's near 40-year high reached back in September is almost certainly the cyclical peak, reached 21…


<div class="content-highlight"><p>2018 promises to be another fascinating, but almost certainly more challenging year for global investors. We have identified a number of non-consensus calls - 18 of them for '18 - to help navigate the minefield.</p><p>Our first five are: </p><ul><li>global growth momentum has already peaked and will slow through the year;</li><li>the US's growth-inflation mix will deteriorate and the Philipps curve should flicker back to life;</li><li>The Federal Reserve will hike more than expected, lifting the Fed Funds rate at least three times;</li><li>the UST curve will keep flattening but 'bond market conundrum 2.0' will continue to cap longer yields;</li><li> risks to oil are heavily to the downside. A slump back below $50 per barrel could be THE story of 2018.</li></ul><p>Another 5 to follow soon. </p></div>

2018 promises to be another fascinating, but almost certainly more challenging year for global investors. We have identified a number of non-consensus calls - 18 of them for '18 - to help navigate the minefield.Our first five are: global growth momentum has already peaked and will slow through the year;the US's growth-inflation mix will deteriorate and the Philipps curve should flicker back to life;The Federal Reserve will hike more than expected, lifting the Fed Funds rate at least three times;the UST curve will keep flattening but 'bond market conundrum 2.0' will continue to cap longer yields; risks to oil are heavily to the downside. A slump back below $50 per barrel could be THE story of 2018.Another 5 to follow soon. 

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Chart of the Day: Cool Hand Xi?

As Paul Newman famously quipped after bluffing his way to success in a poker game in the classic movie Cool Hand Luke, 'sometimes nothing is a...

Richard Iley

Q1 USD Low to Front Run Q2 EEM Correction

We have held a resounding USD bear stance from DXY 101 which is still very supportive for emerging markets and Asian equities in Q1, within our...

Thomas Schroeder

US/Euro Exchange Rate: When "Hot Money" Becomes Over-Hyped

Exchange Rates: Determined By Numerous Forms of Capital FlowsCurrent account balances necessitate a one-way offsetting capital flow of equal...

DeSaque Macro Research

Chart of the Day: BOOM! 2018 Edition

How long can the US's extraordinary manufacturing boom, which we have been in the vanguard of highlighting, continue? The answer will, in turn,...

Richard Iley

Global: 18 For '18 - Part 1

2018 promises to be another fascinating, but almost certainly more challenging year for global investors. We have identified a number...

Richard Iley

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