FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The USD has managed to shake-off increased political risk, although this remains a threat.  The prospect of a more upbeat FOMC may be supporting the USD. The market is looking for some upward revision to the dot-plot.  Eurozone confidence and inflation expectations have eased.  EUR yield spreads deteriorate to new lows.  AUD may have been undermined by weaker metals prices and risks to Chinese growth; including from the US protectionist threats.  The Australian employment report this week and improving prospects for corporate tax cuts may help support the AUD, but the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, and Financial Services Industry, and slowing housing market may be undermining investor demand for the AUD.

The USD has managed to shake-off increased political risk, although this remains a threat.  The prospect of a more upbeat FOMC may be supporting the USD. The market is looking for some upward revision to the dot-plot.  Eurozone confidence and inflation expectations have eased.  EUR yield spreads deteriorate to new lows.  AUD may have been undermined by weaker metals prices and risks to Chinese growth; including from the US protectionist threats.  The Australian employment report this week and improving prospects for corporate tax cuts may help support the AUD, but the Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, and Financial Services Industry, and slowing housing market may be undermining investor demand for the AUD.

USD Shrugging-Off Political Risk, AUD Headwinds and EUR Cracks

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Worried by the jump in LIBOR spreads? (see chart: note TED is LIBOR less US TBills) Is the US dollar about to surge? And, are global markets short of liquidity and again on the brink of a 2008 meltdown? Many investors fear so, and as evidence they cite the recent breakdown of CIP (covered interest rate parity) or what fx traders dub the appearance of a negative cross-currency basis swap (CCBS). It is widely-believed that this implicit premium on foreign exchange borrowing indicates USD scarcity…

Worried by the jump in LIBOR spreads? (see chart: note TED is LIBOR less US TBills) Is the US dollar about to surge? And, are global markets short of liquidity and again on the brink of a 2008 meltdown? Many investors fear so, and as evidence they cite the recent breakdown of CIP (covered interest rate parity) or what fx traders dub the appearance of a negative cross-currency basis swap (CCBS). It is widely-believed that this implicit premium on foreign exchange borrowing indicates USD scarcity…

On The Brink of A Meltdown? USD About to Surge?

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

As I suggested in the 2018 Outlook report published in December (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/global-equities-china-technology-and-politics-to-dominate-2018" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15961">Global Equities: China, Technology and Politics to Dominate 2018</a>), the escalation of tension between the US and China could represent a watershed moment for expectations of global growth and the future of emerging markets, as the post-1991 settlement which facilitated the globalisation of trade and investment flows and kick-started the peace dividend, begins to partially unravel. Against this backdrop, none of the major emerging equity markets offers a combination of attractive valuations together with good or improving sovereign and/or corporate governance factors. This leaves me once again clinging to those markets, such as Thailand, Mexico, Qatar, Taiwan, the Philippines and possibly India, which appear to have defensive qualities, including a relatively low exposure to the direct or indirect effects of the ‘Cold War II’, as the best way to generate relative outperformance.

As I suggested in the 2018 Outlook report published in December (Global Equities: China, Technology and Politics to Dominate 2018), the escalation of tension between the US and China could represent a watershed moment for expectations of global growth and the future of emerging markets, as the post-1991 settlement which facilitated the globalisation of trade and investment flows and kick-started the peace dividend, begins to partially unravel. Against this backdrop, none of the major emerging equity markets offers a combination of attractive valuations together with good or improving sovereign and/or corporate governance factors. This leaves me once again clinging to those markets, such as Thailand, Mexico, Qatar, Taiwan, the Philippines and possibly India, which appear to have defensive qualities, including a relatively low exposure to the direct or indirect effects of the ‘Cold War II’, as the best way to generate relative outperformance.

Emerging Markets Have the Most to Lose from the New ‘Cool War’

Political risk in the US is elevated and likely to rise further as the market contemplates the possibility of Democrats taking control of one or both houses of Congress in the mid-term elections.  The close outcome of the special election in Pennsylvania on Tuesday points to Democratic momentum.  US political risk over the last year has appeared to contribute to a broad USD decline.  However, there are reasons to be less sure that EM and commodity currencies will benefit going forward; Trump is pursuing protectionist trade policies, and equity markets have become more volatile.  Draghi was upbeat but warned on risks to the inflation outlook from a possible trade war and a strong EUR that cannot be fully explained by stronger Eurozone economic growth.

Political risk in the US is elevated and likely to rise further as the market contemplates the possibility of Democrats taking control of one or both houses of Congress in the mid-term elections.  The close outcome of the special election in Pennsylvania on Tuesday points to Democratic momentum.  US political risk over the last year has appeared to contribute to a broad USD decline.  However, there are reasons to be less sure that EM and commodity currencies will benefit going forward; Trump is pursuing protectionist trade policies, and equity markets have become more volatile.  Draghi was upbeat but warned on risks to the inflation outlook from a possible trade war and a strong EUR that cannot be fully explained by stronger Eurozone economic growth.

US Political Risk Threatening the USD and More

Trump trade policy confuses an already muddled FX market. The loud howls from near and far decrying the Trump tariffs may be contributing to an already negative global investor view of the USD.  However, most ways you slice it, Trump’s tariffs and broader economic nationalist policies should support the USD, particularly against EM and commodity currencies.  In Trump’s view of the world, the USA has been taken advantage of by pursuing the high ground of free trade orthodoxy.  If he is right, it makes sense to respond with trade protection even if that generates risks for growth.  Most agree that there is global over-production of steel.  If so, the US, as the largest steel importer, has the market clout to help address that problem with tariffs.  Fears for a negative fallout to other US industries is probably over-blown.  Threats of retaliation against the USA may be just that, as most of its trade partners have more to lose than gain if Trump plays hardball and responds in kind.

Trump trade policy confuses an already muddled FX market. The loud howls from near and far decrying the Trump tariffs may be contributing to an already negative global investor view of the USD.  However, most ways you slice it, Trump’s tariffs and broader economic nationalist policies should support the USD, particularly against EM and commodity currencies.  In Trump’s view of the world, the USA has been taken advantage of by pursuing the high ground of free trade orthodoxy.  If he is right, it makes sense to respond with trade protection even if that generates risks for growth.  Most agree that there is global over-production of steel.  If so, the US, as the largest steel importer, has the market clout to help address that problem with tariffs.  Fears for a negative fallout to other US industries is probably over-blown.  Threats of retaliation against the USA may be just that, as most of its trade partners have more to lose than gain if Trump plays hardball and responds in kind. 

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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USD Shrugging-Off Political Risk, AUD Headwinds and EUR Cracks

The USD has managed to shake-off increased political risk, although this remains a threat. The prospect of a more upbeat FOMC may be supporting...

Greg Gibbs

On The Brink of A Meltdown? USD About to Surge?

Worried by the jump in LIBOR spreads? (see chart: note TED is LIBOR less US TBills) Is the US dollar about to surge? And, are global markets short...

Michael J. Howell

Emerging Markets Have the Most to Lose from the New ‘Cool War’

As I suggested in the 2018 Outlook report published in December (Global Equities: China, Technology and Politics to Dominate 2018), the escalation...

John-Paul Smith

US Political Risk Threatening the USD and More

Political risk in the US is elevated and likely to rise further as the market contemplates the possibility of Democrats taking control of one or...

Greg Gibbs

Trump Vs. Free Trade Orthodoxy

Trump trade policy confuses an already muddled FX market. The loud howls from near and far decrying the Trump tariffs may be contributing to an...

Greg Gibbs

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