Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

FX & Rates

Non-Japan Asian (NJA) central banks’ foreign currency (FX) reserves have gradually increased since end-March 2020, arguably the peak in global risk aversion.We estimate that the aggregate US Dollar-value of FX reserves in China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand increased by about $514bn or 10% in the eleven months to end-February 2021 to about $5.66 trillion. This was just $122bn short of all the all-time high recorded in June-2014.Adjusting for currency-valuation effects – the appreciation of other major reserve currencies versus the US Dollar – we estimate that these NJA central banks’ FX reserves increased by about $342bn or 6.4%. As a percentage of GDP, this increase amounted to about 1.5% for NJA, ranging from only 0.3% in China to nearly 28% in Singapore. While realised investment gains on these central banks’ holdings and other official transactions may have inflated this increase in FX reserves, it was at least partly the result of central banks’ intervention in the FX market (i.e. buying foreign currency), in our view. Importantly, NJA central banks rightly attach greater importance to their currencies’ more relevant Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs), when setting their exchange rate and interest rate policies, than to their currency’s bilateral exchange rates, in our view.In the past 11 months NJA central banks have continued to show an ability and willingness to both limit daily FX volatility and influence their NEERs’ medium-term directionality.FX reserve accumulation has either capped the pace of appreciation (CNY, IDR, KRW, THB, TWD) or contributed to (albeit modest in most cases) NEER depreciation (INR, MYR, PHP) with NJA central banks seemingly intent on maintaining export competitiveness and limiting imported deflation. The Singapore Dollar NEER was unchanged over this period.Of course the past and future performance of individual currencies is conditioned by both the magnitude of central bank FX intervention AND current account and capital account flows (and the underlying factors behind these policies and FX flows) – the topic of Part Two of this FIRMS report.

Non-Japan Asian (NJA) central banks’ foreign currency (FX) reserves have gradually increased since end-March 2020, arguably the peak in global risk aversion.We estimate that the aggregate US Dollar-value of FX reserves in China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand increased by about $514bn or 10% in the eleven months to end-February 2021 to about $5.66 trillion. This was just $122bn short of all the all-time high recorded in June-2014.Adjusting for currency-valuation effects – the appreciation of other major reserve currencies versus the US Dollar – we estimate that these NJA central banks’ FX reserves increased by about $342bn or 6.4%. As a percentage of GDP, this increase amounted to about 1.5% for NJA, ranging from only 0.3% in China to nearly 28% in Singapore. While realised investment gains on these central banks’ holdings and other official transactions may have inflated this increase in FX reserves, it was at least partly the result of central banks’ intervention in the FX market (i.e. buying foreign currency), in our view. Importantly, NJA central banks rightly attach greater importance to their currencies’ more relevant Nominal Effective Exchange Rates (NEERs), when setting their exchange rate and interest rate policies, than to their currency’s bilateral exchange rates, in our view.In the past 11 months NJA central banks have continued to show an ability and willingness to both limit daily FX volatility and influence their NEERs’ medium-term directionality.FX reserve accumulation has either capped the pace of appreciation (CNY, IDR, KRW, THB, TWD) or contributed to (albeit modest in most cases) NEER depreciation (INR, MYR, PHP) with NJA central banks seemingly intent on maintaining export competitiveness and limiting imported deflation. The Singapore Dollar NEER was unchanged over this period.Of course the past and future performance of individual currencies is conditioned by both the magnitude of central bank FX intervention AND current account and capital account flows (and the underlying factors behind these policies and FX flows) – the topic of Part Two of this FIRMS report. 

Non-Japan Asia: NEERs and FX Intervention

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Whichever commodity index we look at, there are decent long term levels that are now limiting gains. While a major trend change is unlikely, a near term meaningful correction down is certainly the risk. Consequently, commodity currencies are also vulnerable in the short term.This all lines up with indications that financial markets as a whole are going through a notable bump as we enter Q2.

Whichever commodity index we look at, there are decent long term levels that are now limiting gains. While a major trend change is unlikely, a near term meaningful correction down is certainly the risk. Consequently, commodity currencies are also vulnerable in the short term.This all lines up with indications that financial markets as a whole are going through a notable bump as we enter Q2.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

The announcement of 2020 full year results is bringing some certainty to the HSCEI 2021 dividend index points. With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-communications-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:659:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ind-comm-bk-of-china-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a> announcing results (and dividends) today, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/postal-savings-bank-of-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22848:1" rel="noopener">Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agricultural-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1120:1" rel="noopener">Agricultural Bank Of China (1288 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a> announcing on Monday and Tuesday next week, over 85% of the 2021 dividend index points will be known by end of the month.With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a> included in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> at the close of trading on 8 April, potential changes to the index at the June review that will be implemented at the close on 4 June, and capping changes that will be implemented at 8% of the index weight for all stocks at the June review, the dividend ex-date for the stocks (and banks in particular) will play a big role in determining the fair value of the 2021 dividend futures.With the SEC pushing forward with the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, US listed Chinese stocks could look to bring forward their plans to Secondary List on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc-83a27302-cd7d-4e6a-a1de-bcf93eb022c3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32215:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (9626 HK)</a> lists on Monday and media indicates that other Chinese companies are evaluating listing in Hong Kong. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (JDL HK)</a> has already filed papers to list in Hong Kong. Then there are companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (1284375D CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bytedance-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27936:1" rel="noopener">ByteDance (1460967D CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK)</a> that could primary list in Hong Kong in the near future. While this will have minimal impact on the 2021 dividends, the impact on the 2022 and later dividend futures would be a lot higher.We see little downside from the current market on the HSCEI 2021 dividend futures, but believe that the HSCEI 2021/22 dividend steepener is trading too high. Potential changes to the index constituents should put downward pressure on the 2022 dividends with low dividend yield or zero dividend paying companies joining the index at high index weights, and high dividend paying companies being deleted from the index.

The announcement of 2020 full year results is bringing some certainty to the HSCEI 2021 dividend index points. With Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK), ICBC (H) (1398 HK) and China Construction Bank H (939 HK) announcing results (and dividends) today, and Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK), Agricultural Bank Of China (1288 HK) and Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) announcing on Monday and Tuesday next week, over 85% of the 2021 dividend index points will be known by end of the month.With Baidu (9888 HK) included in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the close of trading on 8 April, potential changes to the index at the June review that will be implemented at the close on 4 June, and capping changes that will be implemented at 8% of the index weight for all stocks at the June review, the dividend ex-date for the stocks (and banks in particular) will play a big role in determining the fair value of the 2021 dividend futures.With the SEC pushing forward with the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, US listed Chinese stocks could look to bring forward their plans to Secondary List on the HKEX (388 HK). Bilibili Inc (9626 HK) lists on Monday and media indicates that other Chinese companies are evaluating listing in Hong Kong. JD Logistics (JDL HK) has already filed papers to list in Hong Kong. Then there are companies like DiDi Chuxing (1284375D CH), ByteDance (1460967D CH) and Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK) that could primary list in Hong Kong in the near future. While this will have minimal impact on the 2021 dividends, the impact on the 2022 and later dividend futures would be a lot higher.We see little downside from the current market on the HSCEI 2021 dividend futures, but believe that the HSCEI 2021/22 dividend steepener is trading too high. Potential changes to the index constituents should put downward pressure on the 2022 dividends with low dividend yield or zero dividend paying companies joining the index at high index weights, and high dividend paying companies being deleted from the index.

HSCEI Dividend Futures: June Index Review, Bank Divs, HFCAA - Sell the 2021/22 Steepener

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

Dividend yields for the S&amp;P 500 are 1.5%; the only time they were lower in the past 150 years was in 2000 (1% before the "dot-com crash" of 2000). We expect the S&amp;P 500 earnings yield to rebound from its low of 2.5% through a combination of stronger EPS growth and falling stock prices. The 14% of GDP fiscal stimulus will strengthen the recovery; already the end of the SLR-relaxation amounts to a slight tightening of monetary conditions from April 2021. The pledge of US$120 billion of monthly bond purchases will need to be relaxed after May 2021, and further tightening is likely at the FOMC meeting at the end of June, via either a 12.5bp rise in Fed Funds rate or an increase in the 0.1% interest rate paid on banks' reserves. The US$ will strengthen.Over the past 3 months (starting 27 December 2020), the US has legislated an aggregate fiscal stimulus of US$2.8 trillion (14% of GDP), of which the first part (US$0.9 trillion) has been almost entirely disbursed in the current quarter. Unsurprisingly, FOMC members expect US real GDP to rebound to a spectacular 6.5% growth in 2021. The unemployment rate has already declined to 6.2% in February 2021 (from 6.7% in Nov-Dec 2020, and 10.2% in July 2020); although much higher than February 2020 (3.5%), the current unemployment rate is not far above the traditional 5-6% rate considered the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), which is estimated to have fallen to 4-5% for the 2005-30 period. Given that jobs in the pandemic-hit hospitality sector are unlikely to come back for awhile, we estimate that NAIRU this year is close to 5%, a level of unemployment that is likely to be reached before 4Q 2021. Manufacturing is leading the US recovery: the ISM's manufacturing PMI was equal to a 3-year high (last exceeded 17 years ago) in February 2021 despite inclement weather. The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing outlook reached a 48-year high this month. Inflation is likely to edge up as unemployment declines toward the NAIRU, making it untenable for the Fed to keep to its pledge of buying US$120 billion of bonds monthly without countervailing actions to reduce the money-multiplier. The first such step removes the SLR relaxations from the beginning of next month. The second is likely to be an increase in the interest rate paid on banks' reserves (from their 0.1% current level) or an outright increase in the Fed Funds rate (to 0.25%) at the June FOMC meeting. We are bearish on risk assets (equities and EMs) over the next half year, and would recommend continuing to rotate away from technology stocks to cyclicals, consumer cyclicals and banks.

Dividend yields for the S&amp;P 500 are 1.5%; the only time they were lower in the past 150 years was in 2000 (1% before the "dot-com crash" of 2000). We expect the S&amp;P 500 earnings yield to rebound from its low of 2.5% through a combination of stronger EPS growth and falling stock prices. The 14% of GDP fiscal stimulus will strengthen the recovery; already the end of the SLR-relaxation amounts to a slight tightening of monetary conditions from April 2021. The pledge of US$120 billion of monthly bond purchases will need to be relaxed after May 2021, and further tightening is likely at the FOMC meeting at the end of June, via either a 12.5bp rise in Fed Funds rate or an increase in the 0.1% interest rate paid on banks' reserves. The US$ will strengthen.Over the past 3 months (starting 27 December 2020), the US has legislated an aggregate fiscal stimulus of US$2.8 trillion (14% of GDP), of which the first part (US$0.9 trillion) has been almost entirely disbursed in the current quarter. Unsurprisingly, FOMC members expect US real GDP to rebound to a spectacular 6.5% growth in 2021. The unemployment rate has already declined to 6.2% in February 2021 (from 6.7% in Nov-Dec 2020, and 10.2% in July 2020); although much higher than February 2020 (3.5%), the current unemployment rate is not far above the traditional 5-6% rate considered the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), which is estimated to have fallen to 4-5% for the 2005-30 period. Given that jobs in the pandemic-hit hospitality sector are unlikely to come back for awhile, we estimate that NAIRU this year is close to 5%, a level of unemployment that is likely to be reached before 4Q 2021. Manufacturing is leading the US recovery: the ISM's manufacturing PMI was equal to a 3-year high (last exceeded 17 years ago) in February 2021 despite inclement weather. The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing outlook reached a 48-year high this month. Inflation is likely to edge up as unemployment declines toward the NAIRU, making it untenable for the Fed to keep to its pledge of buying US$120 billion of bonds monthly without countervailing actions to reduce the money-multiplier. The first such step removes the SLR relaxations from the beginning of next month. The second is likely to be an increase in the interest rate paid on banks' reserves (from their 0.1% current level) or an outright increase in the Fed Funds rate (to 0.25%) at the June FOMC meeting. We are bearish on risk assets (equities and EMs) over the next half year, and would recommend continuing to rotate away from technology stocks to cyclicals, consumer cyclicals and banks. 

Biden's Huge Stimulus Is Obliging the Fed to Edge Away from Unlimited QE

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

DXY rally call from sub 90 to 92 is in line and we are a tactical seller in the 92+ area for a pullback sequence amid an expected 10yr yield pullback. With the USD such a crowded short trade in a rising yield trajectory, we now find compelling evidence that the dollar may shift gears toward a more bullish stance after a pullback sequence. DXY weekly bull divergence and a price bottom pattern mirroring that in 2018 has our attention.The USD is a crowded short and would take little to spark a short covering reaction higher as witnessed in the USD/JPY above 107 (impulsive rise has legs). NZD above 0.74 shows risk of a macro top as does the AUD back near 0.81.

DXY rally call from sub 90 to 92 is in line and we are a tactical seller in the 92+ area for a pullback sequence amid an expected 10yr yield pullback. With the USD such a crowded short trade in a rising yield trajectory, we now find compelling evidence that the dollar may shift gears toward a more bullish stance after a pullback sequence. DXY weekly bull divergence and a price bottom pattern mirroring that in 2018 has our attention.The USD is a crowded short and would take little to spark a short covering reaction higher as witnessed in the USD/JPY above 107 (impulsive rise has legs). NZD above 0.74 shows risk of a macro top as does the AUD back near 0.81.

A Dollar Macro Low Would Surprise Crowded Shorts

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Non-Japan Asia: NEERs and FX Intervention

Non-Japan Asian central banks have in past year intervened in FX market to cap FX volatility, protect export competitiveness and limit imported...

Olivier Desbarres

Commodity Currencies and Their Warnings

Every major commodities index is hitting key long term levels and showing signs of stalling. It is no surprise then that bearish indications and...

Shyam Devani

HSCEI Dividend Futures: June Index Review, Bank Divs, HFCAA - Sell the 2021/22 Steepener

While the HSCEI 2021 dividend futures are trading near our estimated fair, the HSCEI 2021/22 div steepener is not. We recommend selling the...

Brian Freitas

Biden's Huge Stimulus Is Obliging the Fed to Edge Away from Unlimited QE

The 14% of GDP stimulus will oblige the Fed to tighten policy by mid-year, strengthening the US$.S&P500 dividend yield (1.5%) has been lower only...

Prasenjit K. Basu

A Dollar Macro Low Would Surprise Crowded Shorts

USD is a crowded short trade in a rising yield trajectory, we now find compelling evidence that the dollar will shift gears (more bullish) after a...

Thomas Schroeder

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