Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Markets are showing signs of weakening at logical resistance as we anticipated in last week’s Int’l Compass - we recommend being selective in new purchases. At the same time we are seeing a number of indicators that are giving signals conducive to higher equity prices, meaning global equities may be gearing up for an eventual breakout topside resistance. In this report we highlight some attractive and actionable themes (Miners, consumer staples, and several attractive individual set ups in Thailand) along with indicators that support our overall constructive outlook.

Markets are showing signs of weakening at logical resistance as we anticipated in last week’s Int’l Compass - we recommend being selective in new purchases. At the same time we are seeing a number of indicators that are giving signals conducive to higher equity prices, meaning global equities may be gearing up for an eventual breakout topside resistance. In this report we highlight some attractive and actionable themes (Miners, consumer staples, and several attractive individual set ups in Thailand) along with indicators that support our overall constructive outlook.

U.S.Dollar Weakness A Tailwind For International Markets

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

It appears central banks have pivoted towards delivering more policy easing to bolster inflation expectations that have plumbed new lows this year.  The Fed has the greatest scope to ease policy, and the prospect of deep rate cuts has undermined the USD.  However, the Fed is struggling to gain the initiative and appears to be reacting to market pressure and outside criticism rather than setting its own agenda. Gold has broken the range highs over the last six years and may have further to run as central bank policy easing sends investors in search of alternatives to fiat currencies.  Trump's attacks on the Fed’s independence and threats against other countries alleged attempts to devalue their currencies cannot be helping the dollar and adds support to gold.  A range of geopolitical risks driven by unprecedented US administration aggression may further support gold.  A G20 attempt to restart US-China trade negotiations may provide a reprieve for the USD and US yields, and provide a dip in gold. Facebook’s Libra represents yet another threat to the USD. Its announcement in the same week as Trump stomps on the institutional underpinnings for the USD is a foreboding sign.

It appears central banks have pivoted towards delivering more policy easing to bolster inflation expectations that have plumbed new lows this year.  The Fed has the greatest scope to ease policy, and the prospect of deep rate cuts has undermined the USD.  However, the Fed is struggling to gain the initiative and appears to be reacting to market pressure and outside criticism rather than setting its own agenda. Gold has broken the range highs over the last six years and may have further to run as central bank policy easing sends investors in search of alternatives to fiat currencies.  Trump's attacks on the Fed’s independence and threats against other countries alleged attempts to devalue their currencies cannot be helping the dollar and adds support to gold.  A range of geopolitical risks driven by unprecedented US administration aggression may further support gold.  A G20 attempt to restart US-China trade negotiations may provide a reprieve for the USD and US yields, and provide a dip in gold. Facebook’s Libra represents yet another threat to the USD. Its announcement in the same week as Trump stomps on the institutional underpinnings for the USD is a foreboding sign.

Which Currency Do You Want to Hold – Gold, Crypto or Fiat?

Despite negative recent developments, we have remained steadfast in our belief that weakness in May has presented an attractive time to add exposure. In our June International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to this belief, along with areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities within our favorite Groups, spanning the Consumer Staples, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Services, Health Care, and Financial Sectors.

Despite negative recent developments, we have remained steadfast in our belief that weakness in May has presented an attractive time to add exposure. In our June International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to this belief, along with areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities within our favorite Groups, spanning the Consumer Staples, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Services, Health Care, and Financial Sectors.

Global Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy: Cautiously Optimistic Outlook Intact

FX & Rates

With a small break in the onslaught of bad news on trade barriers and talk of anti-trust investigations, US equities rebound from their recent sharp falls.  US yields are also off the deck, but the market is sending out invitations for a rate cut party, and waiting for the Fed to turn-up.  Fed Chair gave just enough hint that he might turn up, but he is still reluctant to acknowledge that risks to growth have increased. Lower US yields and hopes of rate cuts have shifted the tone from a strong dollar to a weak dollar, and this may continue for the time being. PMI data for the US from Markit have fallen sharply already pointing to weak US growth, running now below the Eurozone.  With some mixed messages from US data, payrolls data on Friday may take on even more significance.

With a small break in the onslaught of bad news on trade barriers and talk of anti-trust investigations, US equities rebound from their recent sharp falls.  US yields are also off the deck, but the market is sending out invitations for a rate cut party, and waiting for the Fed to turn-up.  Fed Chair gave just enough hint that he might turn up, but he is still reluctant to acknowledge that risks to growth have increased. Lower US yields and hopes of rate cuts have shifted the tone from a strong dollar to a weak dollar, and this may continue for the time being. PMI data for the US from Markit have fallen sharply already pointing to weak US growth, running now below the Eurozone.  With some mixed messages from US data, payrolls data on Friday may take on even more significance.

US equities couldn’t muster an end of month consolidation.  They attempted to stabilise on Thursday but closed near their lows on Friday. The weight of the news was too much – Trump expanding tariffs threats to one of its biggest and most integrated trading partners, Mexico, and trade relations hardened between China and the US. Trump plans to convince the UK to avoid Huawei, China started its own “Entity” list to potential ban US companies, and it is preparing to halt rare earth mineral exports to the US.  Optimists are giving up on a global economic recovery, and Chinese PMI data confirm its manufacturing sector is struggling already from the trade war.   The tide may be turning against the USD as the market prices in significant Fed rate cuts, its yields fall sharply, and its equity market leads recent falls.  The USA is starting to look like one of the biggest potential losers in a trade war.  Its economic data are not revealing many problems yet, but this only suggests it has further to fall.  The market is likely to dismiss stronger US economic data and panic at the first sign of weakness (raising risks around the ISM and payrolls reports next week).

US equities couldn’t muster an end of month consolidation.  They attempted to stabilise on Thursday but closed near their lows on Friday. The weight of the news was too much – Trump expanding tariffs threats to one of its biggest and most integrated trading partners, Mexico, and trade relations hardened between China and the US. Trump plans to convince the UK to avoid Huawei, China started its own “Entity” list to potential ban US companies, and it is preparing to halt rare earth mineral exports to the US.  Optimists are giving up on a global economic recovery, and Chinese PMI data confirm its manufacturing sector is struggling already from the trade war.   The tide may be turning against the USD as the market prices in significant Fed rate cuts, its yields fall sharply, and its equity market leads recent falls.  The USA is starting to look like one of the biggest potential losers in a trade war.  Its economic data are not revealing many problems yet, but this only suggests it has further to fall.  The market is likely to dismiss stronger US economic data and panic at the first sign of weakness (raising risks around the ISM and payrolls reports next week). 

Safe Haven Status of the USD Starting to Crumble Under the Weight of Trump’s Trade Wars

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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U.S.Dollar Weakness A Tailwind For International Markets

Markets are showing signs of weakening at logical resistance as we anticipated in last week’s Int’l Compass - we recommend being selective in new...

Vermilion Research

Which Currency Do You Want to Hold – Gold, Crypto or Fiat?

It appears central banks have pivoted towards delivering more policy easing to bolster inflation expectations that have plumbed new lows this...

Greg Gibbs

Global Ex-U.S. Equity Strategy: Cautiously Optimistic Outlook Intact

Despite negative recent developments, we have remained steadfast in our belief that weakness in May has presented an attractive time to add...

Vermilion Research

Will Powell Come to the Party?

With a small break in the onslaught of bad news on trade barriers and talk of anti-trust investigations, US equities rebound from their recent...

Greg Gibbs

Safe Haven Status of the USD Starting to Crumble Under the Weight of Trump’s Trade Wars

US equities couldn’t muster an end of month consolidation. They attempted to stabilise on Thursday but closed near their lows on Friday. The...

Greg Gibbs

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