Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

FX & Rates

US financial markets have had to contend with three “hawkish surprises” so far this month and on each occasion price action has been broadly the same. Initially the Dollar rallied, the S&amp;P 500 sold off and US Treasury yields rose but these (modest) moves were very quickly reversed. Volatility and directionality have thus remained limited, although the Dollar NEER has slowly weakened to within touching distance of a 3-year low – in line with our bearish Dollar outlook (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dollar-and-the-three-bears" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dollar and the three bears</a>, 19th April 2021).Price action suggests that markets are still seemingly not convinced, rightly in our view, that US inflation will remain materially above target medium-term and that the Federal Reserve will have to tighten monetary policy any time soon. The question is whether US financial markets will follow the same pattern following today’s release (at 13.30 London time) of US PCE-inflation data for April. The consensus forecast is that core PCE-inflation – the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation – rose from 1.8% yoy in March to 2.9% yoy, a 29-year high and well above the Federal Reserve’s medium-term target of 2%.Our view is that the scope for core PCE-inflation to surprise materially to the upside in April is limited, with the risk to the Dollar based on recent precedent biased to the downside in coming sessions. Medium-term we think the case for US CPI-inflation to remain well above the Fed’s target is far from water tight. Moreover, the Fed has form when it comes to keeping monetary policy very loose despite decent US GDP growth and an improving domestic labour market.Our core scenario at present is that the Federal Reserve will only start tapering its monthly asset purchases in 2022 and only start hiking its policy rate in 2023. We therefore remain bearish the US Dollar – a theme we will develop in future FIRMS reports.

US financial markets have had to contend with three “hawkish surprises” so far this month and on each occasion price action has been broadly the same. Initially the Dollar rallied, the S&amp;P 500 sold off and US Treasury yields rose but these (modest) moves were very quickly reversed. Volatility and directionality have thus remained limited, although the Dollar NEER has slowly weakened to within touching distance of a 3-year low – in line with our bearish Dollar outlook (see Dollar and the three bears, 19th April 2021).Price action suggests that markets are still seemingly not convinced, rightly in our view, that US inflation will remain materially above target medium-term and that the Federal Reserve will have to tighten monetary policy any time soon. The question is whether US financial markets will follow the same pattern following today’s release (at 13.30 London time) of US PCE-inflation data for April. The consensus forecast is that core PCE-inflation – the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation – rose from 1.8% yoy in March to 2.9% yoy, a 29-year high and well above the Federal Reserve’s medium-term target of 2%.Our view is that the scope for core PCE-inflation to surprise materially to the upside in April is limited, with the risk to the Dollar based on recent precedent biased to the downside in coming sessions. Medium-term we think the case for US CPI-inflation to remain well above the Fed’s target is far from water tight. Moreover, the Fed has form when it comes to keeping monetary policy very loose despite decent US GDP growth and an improving domestic labour market.Our core scenario at present is that the Federal Reserve will only start tapering its monthly asset purchases in 2022 and only start hiking its policy rate in 2023. We therefore remain bearish the US Dollar – a theme we will develop in future FIRMS reports.

Tantrum “lite” Won’t Help US Dollar

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Latest data show large withdrawals of US Liquidity thru May by the US Fed</li>
<li>This may be technical, but it echoes concerns expressed at the last FOMC</li>
<li>A taper may be coming. This could trigger another tantrum</li>
<li>Longer-term Fed must operate a ‘put’ and expand its balance sheet at close to 10% per annum to support debt roll-overs and fiscal spending plans</li>
</ul>


Latest data show large withdrawals of US Liquidity thru May by the US Fed
This may be technical, but it echoes concerns expressed at the last FOMC
A taper may be coming. This could trigger another tantrum
Longer-term Fed must operate a ‘put’ and expand its balance sheet at close to 10% per annum to support debt roll-overs and fiscal spending plans


Global QE: Is The US Fed About to Tighten?

The past week has seen a short-lived flurry of market price action, with daily volatility in the US Dollar and equities edging higher on 30th April and again on 4th May. However, volatility overall has remained subdued, particularly in the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield. Moreover, the Dollar NEER and US 10-year yields – increasingly a bellwether for financial markets – remain firmly within their multi-week ranges while the S&amp;P 500 yesterday closed in the middle of a narrow 3-week range of just 1.8%. US markets are seemingly sitting on the fence at this juncture, unwilling to take material directional positions given the uncertain outlook for US and global inflation and central banks’ reaction functions.  However, the gradual 6bp fall in the US benchmark 10-year Treasury yield between 29th April and 5th May to about 1.58% and the flattening of the 2s5s and 2s10s yield curves alongside a 0.4% gain in the Dollar NEER is noteworthy.Our take is that markets may have become marginally less worried that the Fed will have no choice but to tighten monetary policy sooner than it has indicated despite expectations that year-on-year US CPI-inflation will rise further in coming months. Moreover, the inverse relationship between the “safe-haven” Dollar and riskier assets has remained strong. US macro data released in the past week have been strong enough to put a floor under the S&amp;P 500 but not strong enough to push it to new highs. Finally we think that markets, in particular real-money funds, have once again been paying greater attention to valuations, including the relative cheapness of the Dollar.Notably most of the other major NEERs have also traded in narrow ranges since early March and few have moved much in the past month. Central banks, particularly in Asia, have been willing and able to keep their currencies on a short leash in order to maintain export competitiveness and minimise inflationary or deflationary pressures.Within Asia, the Taiwan Dollar is looking expensive relative to the Korean Won, in our view.

The past week has seen a short-lived flurry of market price action, with daily volatility in the US Dollar and equities edging higher on 30th April and again on 4th May. However, volatility overall has remained subdued, particularly in the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield. Moreover, the Dollar NEER and US 10-year yields – increasingly a bellwether for financial markets – remain firmly within their multi-week ranges while the S&amp;P 500 yesterday closed in the middle of a narrow 3-week range of just 1.8%. US markets are seemingly sitting on the fence at this juncture, unwilling to take material directional positions given the uncertain outlook for US and global inflation and central banks’ reaction functions.  However, the gradual 6bp fall in the US benchmark 10-year Treasury yield between 29th April and 5th May to about 1.58% and the flattening of the 2s5s and 2s10s yield curves alongside a 0.4% gain in the Dollar NEER is noteworthy.Our take is that markets may have become marginally less worried that the Fed will have no choice but to tighten monetary policy sooner than it has indicated despite expectations that year-on-year US CPI-inflation will rise further in coming months. Moreover, the inverse relationship between the “safe-haven” Dollar and riskier assets has remained strong. US macro data released in the past week have been strong enough to put a floor under the S&amp;P 500 but not strong enough to push it to new highs. Finally we think that markets, in particular real-money funds, have once again been paying greater attention to valuations, including the relative cheapness of the Dollar.Notably most of the other major NEERs have also traded in narrow ranges since early March and few have moved much in the past month. Central banks, particularly in Asia, have been willing and able to keep their currencies on a short leash in order to maintain export competitiveness and minimise inflationary or deflationary pressures.Within Asia, the Taiwan Dollar is looking expensive relative to the Korean Won, in our view.

Sitting on Range-Trade Fence: Complacent Comfort

The Federal Reserve has in the past six weeks diligently stuck to its “patience until substantial further progress is seen” monetary policy mantra. Its “reward” has been range-bound US Treasury yields, a slowly depreciating Dollar and a metronomic rise in US equity indices, with all three financial markets exhibiting only modest volatility.Since 19th April the Dollar NEER has depreciated a further 0.6% to within striking distance of a 14-week low, in line with “our core scenario that the Dollar will indeed lose further ground”. We remain bearish the US Dollar, a theme we will explore in greater detail in forthcoming FIRMS reports.Fed Chairperson Powell would argue that keeping US Treasury yields in check has been a worthy achievement given the backdrop of President Biden’s ambitious fiscal stimulus plans and accelerating US economic growth and rising domestic and global inflation. A GDP-weighted measure of headline CPI-inflation in 32 major economies rose to 2.1% yoy in March from 1.4% yoy in February, the largest monthly increase since December 2009. But core CPI-inflation in developed economies rose only marginally in Q1 2021, with the rate of inflation in March of 1.2% yoy below its 10-year average of 1.5% yoy.While backward looking these data they may explain in part why developed central banks, with the exception of Bank of Canada, have so far felt justified in keeping their policy rates on hold and the modalities of their asset-purchase programs broadly unchanged. In the past month currencies in Emerging Europe, Africa and Latin America have been main beneficiaries of still reasonably low US yields, weakening Dollar, burgeoning global growth and robust risk appetite. The timing of this EM rebound has coincided with our forecasts.Non-Japan Asian currencies have lagged, which we attribute in part to portfolio outflows and NJA central banks keeping a close eye on a flat-lining Chinese Renminbi.This differentiated EM currency rally will extend near-term, in our view, but high-yielding EM currencies in particular remain vulnerable to any spikes in US and other developed market government bond yields and more generally market volatility.

The Federal Reserve has in the past six weeks diligently stuck to its “patience until substantial further progress is seen” monetary policy mantra. Its “reward” has been range-bound US Treasury yields, a slowly depreciating Dollar and a metronomic rise in US equity indices, with all three financial markets exhibiting only modest volatility.Since 19th April the Dollar NEER has depreciated a further 0.6% to within striking distance of a 14-week low, in line with “our core scenario that the Dollar will indeed lose further ground”. We remain bearish the US Dollar, a theme we will explore in greater detail in forthcoming FIRMS reports.Fed Chairperson Powell would argue that keeping US Treasury yields in check has been a worthy achievement given the backdrop of President Biden’s ambitious fiscal stimulus plans and accelerating US economic growth and rising domestic and global inflation. A GDP-weighted measure of headline CPI-inflation in 32 major economies rose to 2.1% yoy in March from 1.4% yoy in February, the largest monthly increase since December 2009. But core CPI-inflation in developed economies rose only marginally in Q1 2021, with the rate of inflation in March of 1.2% yoy below its 10-year average of 1.5% yoy.While backward looking these data they may explain in part why developed central banks, with the exception of Bank of Canada, have so far felt justified in keeping their policy rates on hold and the modalities of their asset-purchase programs broadly unchanged. In the past month currencies in Emerging Europe, Africa and Latin America have been main beneficiaries of still reasonably low US yields, weakening Dollar, burgeoning global growth and robust risk appetite. The timing of this EM rebound has coincided with our forecasts.Non-Japan Asian currencies have lagged, which we attribute in part to portfolio outflows and NJA central banks keeping a close eye on a flat-lining Chinese Renminbi.This differentiated EM currency rally will extend near-term, in our view, but high-yielding EM currencies in particular remain vulnerable to any spikes in US and other developed market government bond yields and more generally market volatility. 

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Buy DXY 91 to 90.50 overshoot to a align with the SPX top of the rising wedge near 4,180 for a peak in risk. Late April is the ideal timeline for a USD low base to form as a rally platform for a risk off cycle in May/June.Expect some key lows for the USD in EM to pressure EM equities in coming months. USD in Asia bearish tactically into targeted lows to reverse positioning to long the USD.

Buy DXY 91 to 90.50 overshoot to a align with the SPX top of the rising wedge near 4,180 for a peak in risk. Late April is the ideal timeline for a USD low base to form as a rally platform for a risk off cycle in May/June.Expect some key lows for the USD in EM to pressure EM equities in coming months. USD in Asia bearish tactically into targeted lows to reverse positioning to long the USD.

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

USD (USD CURNCY)

Tantrum “lite” Won’t Help US Dollar

Price action in equities, USD and Treasuries suggests markets not buying into US inflation scare or that Fed will have to tighten monetary policy...

Olivier Desbarres

Global QE: Is The US Fed About to Tighten?

Do latest liquidity data thru May and recent statements from FOMC point to a change in direction of US Federal Reserve policy towards tightness?

Michael J. Howell

Sitting on Range-Trade Fence: Complacent Comfort

Vol & directionality in Dollar, Treasuries and S&P 500 modest in past week and most EM currencies remain rangebound. Markets sitting on fence, but...

Olivier Desbarres

Something Has Got to Give

Treasury yields have been range-bound despite global backdrop of stronger growth and rising inflation. USD weaker, equities and (most) EM...

Olivier Desbarres

USD Buy Levels to Sync with Peak in Risk

Buy DXY 91 to 90.50 overshoot to a align with the SPX top of the rising wedge near 4,180 for a peak in risk. Late April is the ideal timeline for a...

Thomas Schroeder

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)