Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>If earlier charts are correct in suggesting lower US long end yields in the short term then USDJPY is vulnerable</li>
<li>So far it has failed twice at 116.35 thereby creating the possibility of a double top</li>
<li>Support is seen at 113.47 followed by a range of levels between 112.14 and 112.53</li>
</ul>


If earlier charts are correct in suggesting lower US long end yields in the short term then USDJPY is vulnerable
So far it has failed twice at 116.35 thereby creating the possibility of a double top
Support is seen at 113.47 followed by a range of levels between 112.14 and 112.53


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The quick rise in Oil now shows a market that is running out of steam in the short term and is at risk of correcting down</li>
<li>This is unlikely to change the underlying trend of higher prices but instead create an opportunity down the line to establish longs</li>
<li>Similarly, the rise in yields is likely to see a pullback before higher yields later. The trade idea at the end of related to this.</li>
</ul>


The quick rise in Oil now shows a market that is running out of steam in the short term and is at risk of correcting down
This is unlikely to change the underlying trend of higher prices but instead create an opportunity down the line to establish longs
Similarly, the rise in yields is likely to see a pullback before higher yields later. The trade idea at the end of related to this.


<ul>
<li>The rally in Oil has taken us through the key levels that were in focus up to $89.58</li>
<li>The weekly close is particularly constructive as we posted a bullish outside week</li>
<li>This should open the way for further gains to the tune of some 20%-25% over the coming weeks / months</li>
</ul>


The rally in Oil has taken us through the key levels that were in focus up to $89.58
The weekly close is particularly constructive as we posted a bullish outside week
This should open the way for further gains to the tune of some 20%-25% over the coming weeks / months


The Crude Awakening – Oil’s Break Higher

<ul>
<li>This is a quick note to highlight some of the support levels on US 10 year and 30 year yields</li>
<li>As we go into the FOMC meeting, obviously anything is possible. These references may prove useful IF we are to see any corrections lower or even breaks to the downside </li>
<li>The recent price action on the daily chart however, for whatever it may be work, seems to indicate that we might actually rise in yields</li>
</ul>


This is a quick note to highlight some of the support levels on US 10 year and 30 year yields
As we go into the FOMC meeting, obviously anything is possible. These references may prove useful IF we are to see any corrections lower or even breaks to the downside 
The recent price action on the daily chart however, for whatever it may be work, seems to indicate that we might actually rise in yields


Short Term Levels on US Yields Going into the Fed

<ul>
<li>The rise in Oil and US Yields has come at a time when the equity market is struggling to maintain recent highs</li>
<li>These dynamics are probably linked as a hawkish Fed &amp; rising yields across the curve question one of the major supports for US equity markets - cheap money</li>
<li>The chart below shows that we saw something similar a few months ago</li>
</ul>


The rise in Oil and US Yields has come at a time when the equity market is struggling to maintain recent highs
These dynamics are probably linked as a hawkish Fed &amp; rising yields across the curve question one of the major supports for US equity markets - cheap money
The chart below shows that we saw something similar a few months ago


US 10Y (USGG10YR INDEX)

USDJPY at Risk

The latest developments in US fixed income markets are also pointing to a lower USDJPY which has failed twice already at 116.35. Lower levels in...

Shyam Devani

Oil & Yields – Time to Correct

the trend up in Oil and on US yields is tired and should see a corrective phase in the near term before the underlying trends resume again over time

Shyam Devani

The Crude Awakening – Oil’s Break Higher

The break higher n Crude has come with strong bullish price action. Further gains towards $115+ are likely over the coming weeks and months

Shyam Devani

Short Term Levels on US Yields Going into the Fed

A quick look at the support zone on US 30Y and 10Y yields as we prepare for the FOMC. If anything, a big if, we might be seeing signs of a rise in...

Shyam Devani

US Equities with Rising Yields and Oil

The rise in yields and Oil seem to be having a negative impact on equities...again. This was also seen a few months ago which is being compared to...

Shyam Devani