Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>This is a quick note to highlight some of the support levels on US 10 year and 30 year yields</li>
<li>As we go into the FOMC meeting, obviously anything is possible. These references may prove useful IF we are to see any corrections lower or even breaks to the downside </li>
<li>The recent price action on the daily chart however, for whatever it may be work, seems to indicate that we might actually rise in yields</li>
</ul>


This is a quick note to highlight some of the support levels on US 10 year and 30 year yields
As we go into the FOMC meeting, obviously anything is possible. These references may prove useful IF we are to see any corrections lower or even breaks to the downside 
The recent price action on the daily chart however, for whatever it may be work, seems to indicate that we might actually rise in yields


Short Term Levels on US Yields Going into the Fed

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The rise in Oil and US Yields has come at a time when the equity market is struggling to maintain recent highs</li>
<li>These dynamics are probably linked as a hawkish Fed &amp; rising yields across the curve question one of the major supports for US equity markets - cheap money</li>
<li>The chart below shows that we saw something similar a few months ago</li>
</ul>


The rise in Oil and US Yields has come at a time when the equity market is struggling to maintain recent highs
These dynamics are probably linked as a hawkish Fed &amp; rising yields across the curve question one of the major supports for US equity markets - cheap money
The chart below shows that we saw something similar a few months ago


<ul>
<li>The break in US 10 year yield has opened the way for a move to at least 2% in the near term</li>
<li>It has arrived as Oil rallied and makes new trend highs</li>
<li>Given the long-term setup on Oil, a refreshed long term chart of US 10 year yield suggests much more aggressive targets for the course of this year</li>
</ul>


The break in US 10 year yield has opened the way for a move to at least 2% in the near term
It has arrived as Oil rallied and makes new trend highs
Given the long-term setup on Oil, a refreshed long term chart of US 10 year yield suggests much more aggressive targets for the course of this year


<ul>
<li>Price action across different markets warn of some short term trouble</li>
<li>This includes developments in Gold, Oil, USDJPY and US Treasuries</li>
<li>Continue to watch the Dow Jones closely as a short term wobble may soon arrive</li>
</ul>


Price action across different markets warn of some short term trouble
This includes developments in Gold, Oil, USDJPY and US Treasuries
Continue to watch the Dow Jones closely as a short term wobble may soon arrive


Equities - A Small Negative Wave Arriving?

This note takes a thorough look, through a technical lens, of major JPY crosses as nearly all show bullish breakouts across the board.When seen in conjunction with rising yields, higher commodity prices, and stable stocks, we get a fuller picture of the reflationary trends that have re-emerged across markets except in Japan where deflationary concerns (even in the face of rising wholesale prices) are never far away. This keeps the JPY the favoured funding currency, as usual.Keep in mind that US yields are likely to continue higher still – the target for US 5-year yield is 1.80% which will probably take a few months to achieve. Such a development would most likely put US 10-year yield well above 2.00%.The only trend, at this juncture, that is beginning to look mature is the rally in Brent Crude, which has effectively met the $85 target area that has been in place for over a month. That does not mean we will reverse but instead could slow down or consolidate ahead of big levels just below $90.

This note takes a thorough look, through a technical lens, of major JPY crosses as nearly all show bullish breakouts across the board.When seen in conjunction with rising yields, higher commodity prices, and stable stocks, we get a fuller picture of the reflationary trends that have re-emerged across markets except in Japan where deflationary concerns (even in the face of rising wholesale prices) are never far away. This keeps the JPY the favoured funding currency, as usual.Keep in mind that US yields are likely to continue higher still – the target for US 5-year yield is 1.80% which will probably take a few months to achieve. Such a development would most likely put US 10-year yield well above 2.00%.The only trend, at this juncture, that is beginning to look mature is the rally in Brent Crude, which has effectively met the $85 target area that has been in place for over a month. That does not mean we will reverse but instead could slow down or consolidate ahead of big levels just below $90.

US 10Y (USGG10YR INDEX)

Short Term Levels on US Yields Going into the Fed

A quick look at the support zone on US 30Y and 10Y yields as we prepare for the FOMC. If anything, a big if, we might be seeing signs of a rise in...

Shyam Devani

US Equities with Rising Yields and Oil

The rise in yields and Oil seem to be having a negative impact on equities...again. This was also seen a few months ago which is being compared to...

Shyam Devani

US Yields – Onwards and Upwards

The rise in US 10 year yield has arrived as Oil makes new trend highs. Both markets look to trend further and this note looks at both short term...

Shyam Devani

Equities - A Small Negative Wave Arriving?

Price action developments across various markets - from Gold & FX to Commodities & Fixed Income - are warning of a potential negative wave ahead...

Shyam Devani

JPY Crosses Continue to Trend

JPY weakness continues to come through as reflationary trends re-emerge while Japanese yields remain extremely low thus making the Yen the chosen...

Shyam Devani