Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The risk premium of equity asset classes has further declined. The risk premium on US Equities is now just 3.1%, which is very unattractive.</li>
<li>The risk premium of equity asset classes has further declined. The risk premium on US Equities is now just 3.1%, which is very unattractive.</li>
<li>Our ‘Bellwether EPS indicator’ points to a year-on-year earnings-per-share decline of nearly 22%, leaving little room for earnings growth to remain positive.</li>
</ul>


The risk premium of equity asset classes has further declined. The risk premium on US Equities is now just 3.1%, which is very unattractive.
The risk premium of equity asset classes has further declined. The risk premium on US Equities is now just 3.1%, which is very unattractive.
Our ‘Bellwether EPS indicator’ points to a year-on-year earnings-per-share decline of nearly 22%, leaving little room for earnings growth to remain positive.


Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>US 10yr Yield broke above its 4 decade downtrend at 2.70 in 2022, confirming a positive multi-year outlook and target towards 6.24 (38.2% retracement of the LT downtrend).</li>
<li>Last week's weekly close confirmed a renewal of the MT uptrend bias after a multi-month period of consolidation finally produced a definitive positive breakout above 3.57/3.64. Interim target at 3.90/3.95.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
US 10yr Yield broke above its 4 decade downtrend at 2.70 in 2022, confirming a positive multi-year outlook and target towards 6.24 (38.2% retracement of the LT downtrend).
Last week's weekly close confirmed a renewal of the MT uptrend bias after a multi-month period of consolidation finally produced a definitive positive breakout above 3.57/3.64. Interim target at 3.90/3.95.


US 10YR Yield (USGG10YR) - Weekly Close Confirms a Renewed MT Uptrend - Target 3.90/3.95

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>USGG10YR traded in a perfectly structured downtrend from 1981 to 2020. This downtrend was clearly broken in Q2 2022, confirming a dominant multi-year uptrend.</li>
<li>A mere 38.2% retracement of the 1981/2020 downtrend targets 6.24 in the coming 1-2 years. This is our big picture outlook. February may confirm the next leg in this uptrend.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
USGG10YR traded in a perfectly structured downtrend from 1981 to 2020. This downtrend was clearly broken in Q2 2022, confirming a dominant multi-year uptrend.
A mere 38.2% retracement of the 1981/2020 downtrend targets 6.24 in the coming 1-2 years. This is our big picture outlook. February may confirm the next leg in this uptrend.


US 10yr Yield (USGG10YR): We Have to Focus on the Big Picture (Multi-Year Uptrend)

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>We were transitioning to short USD at DXY 114 and 113 ahead of the touted break below trendline support that is now unfolding. Our pullback target is DXY 103.</li>
<li>A weaker USD is acting as a key risk turn for EM and Asian equities (EEM bull from 34).</li>
<li>The USD breakdown is accompanied by a clear yield support break that is perhaps the higher conviction bet into a recession.</li>
</ul>


We were transitioning to short USD at DXY 114 and 113 ahead of the touted break below trendline support that is now unfolding. Our pullback target is DXY 103.
A weaker USD is acting as a key risk turn for EM and Asian equities (EEM bull from 34).
The USD breakdown is accompanied by a clear yield support break that is perhaps the higher conviction bet into a recession.


<ul>
<li>US 10yr yield pivot support at 3.50% will determine if we reach for the 4.19% blow off projection. Macro breakout points, pullback and forward targets the focus.</li>
<li>5 wave rise is noted with retracement synergy that sets the stage for a yield pullback as deflationary forces surface in 2023.</li>
<li>Long term yield breakouts are noted for a yield retreat in 2023 ahead of higher inflation and yield projections in 2024 and a probable credit event.</li>
</ul>


US 10yr yield pivot support at 3.50% will determine if we reach for the 4.19% blow off projection. Macro breakout points, pullback and forward targets the focus.
5 wave rise is noted with retracement synergy that sets the stage for a yield pullback as deflationary forces surface in 2023.
Long term yield breakouts are noted for a yield retreat in 2023 ahead of higher inflation and yield projections in 2024 and a probable credit event.


US Yield Tactical Tops and Forward Higher Yield Trajectory

US 10Y (USGG10YR INDEX)

Markets Better Not Focus on Valuation

Valuation measures reveal pricy equities and cheaper Treasuries. A comprehensive overview of valuation across asset classes.

Jeroen Blokland

US 10YR Yield (USGG10YR) - Weekly Close Confirms a Renewed MT Uptrend - Target 3.90/3.95

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

US 10yr Yield (USGG10YR): We Have to Focus on the Big Picture (Multi-Year Uptrend)

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

USD Breakdown a Tailwind for Asia

We were transitioning to short USD at DXY 114 and 113 ahead of the touted break below trendline support that is now unfolding. Our pullback target...

Thomas Schroeder

US Yield Tactical Tops and Forward Higher Yield Trajectory

US 10yr yield pivot support at 3.50% will determine if we reach for the 4.19% blow off projection. Macro breakout points, pullback and forward...

Thomas Schroeder