Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Credit

Heading into the November U.S. CPI report, there were some rumblings on the inflation front.  For example, finished goods PPI prices continued to pick up in November and the share of small firms reporting that they were raising prices rose to the highest net percentage in over three years.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/040/429/original/121317acht1.png?1513174299" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="40429"></figure><div class="content-remarks">Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Federation of Independent Business</div>However, core CPI prices (i.e., excluding food and energy) rose only 0.1% in November, which lowered the year-over-year core CPI…

Heading into the November U.S. CPI report, there were some rumblings on the inflation front.  For example, finished goods PPI prices continued to pick up in November and the share of small firms reporting that they were raising prices rose to the highest net percentage in over three years.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Federation of Independent BusinessHowever, core CPI prices (i.e., excluding food and energy) rose only 0.1% in November, which lowered the year-over-year core CPI…

November U.S. Core CPI Fails To Follow Through

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

US Breakeven 10 Year / Technical Analysis

A series of charts on US growth and inflation numbers that we are planning will shed some light on our bullish yield scenario for 2018 and one that could surprise markets. A sharp move higher in bond yields will have a profound impact on emerging markets and European equities but will it lift the USD out of the doldrums?Here we look at US core CPI ex food and energy and note a cycle low is at hand with a tilt to drive higher toward the highs in 2012 and 2016 with a bigger pattern resistance at…

A series of charts on US growth and inflation numbers that we are planning will shed some light on our bullish yield scenario for 2018 and one that could surprise markets. A sharp move higher in bond yields will have a profound impact on emerging markets and European equities but will it lift the USD out of the doldrums?Here we look at US core CPI ex food and energy and note a cycle low is at hand with a tilt to drive higher toward the highs in 2012 and 2016 with a bigger pattern resistance at…

US Inflation Brewing to Spur Our Bullish Yield Thesis

This week brought reports on the U.S. producer and consumer price indexes for October.  Following a methodological change in 2014, the Bureau of Labor Statistics now reports headline PPI as "final-demand" prices rather than "finished goods" prices—finished goods PPI prices are still published, but have been demoted.  We find little use for final-demand PPI prices as these include PPI services prices, which have a large relative importance (64%) but no relationship to CPI services prices, which…

This week brought reports on the U.S. producer and consumer price indexes for October.  Following a methodological change in 2014, the Bureau of Labor Statistics now reports headline PPI as "final-demand" prices rather than "finished goods" prices—finished goods PPI prices are still published, but have been demoted.  We find little use for final-demand PPI prices as these include PPI services prices, which have a large relative importance (64%) but no relationship to CPI services prices, which…

It is no secret that the Trump Administration intends to rein in post-financial crisis regulation and there have been some stirrings on this front in recent weeks (for example, last week’s Senate passage of legislation that overturned the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau arbitration rule, a day after a Treasury Department report recommended this action).  Of particular interest to us are regulatory changes that might affect banks’ willingness to lend.Earlier this month, the Treasury…

It is no secret that the Trump Administration intends to rein in post-financial crisis regulation and there have been some stirrings on this front in recent weeks (for example, last week’s Senate passage of legislation that overturned the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau arbitration rule, a day after a Treasury Department report recommended this action).  Of particular interest to us are regulatory changes that might affect banks’ willingness to lend.Earlier this month, the Treasury…

Financial Regulation Stirrings Might Influence Inflation Trends

The Nobel prize for economics was on Monday awarded to Richard Thaler, who documented how people frequently behave in a manner inconsistent with the rational expectations incorporated in many mainstream economic models.  This week also saw present and former policymakers discuss the merits of central banks shifting from current inflation-targeting regimes to price-level targeting, which is dependent on rational expectations.  Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered a paper on Thursday…

The Nobel prize for economics was on Monday awarded to Richard Thaler, who documented how people frequently behave in a manner inconsistent with the rational expectations incorporated in many mainstream economic models.  This week also saw present and former policymakers discuss the merits of central banks shifting from current inflation-targeting regimes to price-level targeting, which is dependent on rational expectations.  Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered a paper on Thursday…

Central Bankers Rethinking Policy Frameworks

US Breakeven 10 Year (USGGBE10 INDEX)

November U.S. Core CPI Fails To Follow Through

Heading into the November U.S. CPI report, there were some rumblings on the inflation front. For example, finished goods PPI prices continued to...

RDQ Economics

US Inflation Brewing to Spur Our Bullish Yield Thesis

A series of charts on US growth and inflation numbers that we are planning will shed some light on our bullish yield scenario for 2018 and one that...

Thomas Schroeder

Trends in U.S. Inflation

This week brought reports on the U.S. producer and consumer price indexes for October. Following a methodological change in 2014, the Bureau of...

RDQ Economics

Financial Regulation Stirrings Might Influence Inflation Trends

It is no secret that the Trump Administration intends to rein in post-financial crisis regulation and there have been some stirrings on this front...

RDQ Economics

Central Bankers Rethinking Policy Frameworks

The Nobel prize for economics was on Monday awarded to Richard Thaler, who documented how people frequently behave in a manner inconsistent with...

RDQ Economics