Underlying U.S. Inflation Is Not Slowing (The Core Is Rotten)
Core CPI inflation unexpectedly moderated to 2.0% in March from 2.1% in February (this implies that core PCE inflation will remain below the Fed's...
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The Fed's Inflation Makeup Model Problem
The treatment of expectations has a large impact on the policy predictions derived from economic models. The Federal Open Market Committee reached...
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Fed Sees No Hikes in 2019 and Announces Balance Sheet Wind Down Will End in 2019
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the fed funds rate target range unchanged today, as expected. However, many other aspects of today’s...
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No Slowing in Core CPI In December; 2019 U.S. Inflation Outlook
With the second in our series of insights outlining various aspects of our U.S. macro projections for 2019, we discuss the outlook for inflation...
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October CPI Review: Core Inflation Held Near 2%, Overall Inflation Picked Up But Is Headed Lower
The October inflation report was pretty much as expected and contained no change in underlying inflation trends. The report showed core inflation...
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