Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Large US banks saw loans down USD22bn from 28 Jun to 16 Aug vs 5bn decline preceding</li>
<li>Weekly data in preceding several weeks shows combined USD18bn decline: it's worsening</li>
<li>Large time deposits, at large US banks, up 76% YoY at 16 Aug - growth is 'off the charts' </li>
</ul>


Large US banks saw loans down USD22bn from 28 Jun to 16 Aug vs 5bn decline preceding
Weekly data in preceding several weeks shows combined USD18bn decline: it's worsening
Large time deposits, at large US banks, up 76% YoY at 16 Aug - growth is 'off the charts' 


US Banks - New HFD Shows Loans Down $22bn From 28 Jun To 16 Aug & Large Time Deposits up 76% YoY

<ul>
<li>High-Frequency data for balance sheets of US banks is just released</li>
<li>Contra-Asset account, loan loss reserves, rapid rise suggests far worse credit metrics </li>
<li>US banks can see hits on all fronts: volume, funding, credit costs, regulatory capital</li>
</ul>


High-Frequency data for balance sheets of US banks is just released
Contra-Asset account, loan loss reserves, rapid rise suggests far worse credit metrics 
US banks can see hits on all fronts: volume, funding, credit costs, regulatory capital


US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheet Data Suggests Rapid Growth Of Credit Costs

<ul>
<li>US banks face more than just Silicon Valley risk, namely with net interest income</li>
<li>Credit costs are also running substantially higher in January monthly data</li>
<li>Bank loan data suggests a strong economy, not overly positive for rates</li>
</ul>


US banks face more than just Silicon Valley risk, namely with net interest income
Credit costs are also running substantially higher in January monthly data
Bank loan data suggests a strong economy, not overly positive for rates


<ul>
<li>Weekly HFD for large US banks are turning positive in several areas, making the mosaic even stronger than if just as single series were improving</li>
<li>Loan growth for the largest US banks is now positive even if low, but moving from a negative rate of growth, the trajectory is a steady improvement</li>
<li>Loan loss reserves growth is lowering, suggesting bettering LGD and PD while large time deposit growth is down substantially, improving liquidity risk (which can impact credit)</li>
</ul>


Weekly HFD for large US banks are turning positive in several areas, making the mosaic even stronger than if just as single series were improving
Loan growth for the largest US banks is now positive even if low, but moving from a negative rate of growth, the trajectory is a steady improvement
Loan loss reserves growth is lowering, suggesting bettering LGD and PD while large time deposit growth is down substantially, improving liquidity risk (which can impact credit)


US Banks - Strong Weekly Balance Sheet Figures for Loans, Loan Loss Reserves and Time Deposits

<ul>
<li>While maybe deflation may not be a concern right now, we believe that high real rates will be a consideration of the Fed</li>
<li>With average lending rates at 8.5% in August and the All Urban CPI Index recording 2.5% inflation in the August, real lending rates are high at 5.97%</li>
<li>When figures were similar, it was July/August 2007 - rarely has there been a time in recent years, where real loan rates have been so high, without Fed reaction</li>
</ul>


While maybe deflation may not be a concern right now, we believe that high real rates will be a consideration of the Fed
With average lending rates at 8.5% in August and the All Urban CPI Index recording 2.5% inflation in the August, real lending rates are high at 5.97%
When figures were similar, it was July/August 2007 - rarely has there been a time in recent years, where real loan rates have been so high, without Fed reaction


Fed Rate Cut - Real Lending Rates at 5.97% Near Where Peaking In August 2007

United States

U.S. Bancorp is a diversified financial services company that provides lending and depository services, cash management, foreign exchange and trust and investment management services.  The Company also provides credit card services, mortgage banking, insurance, brokerage, and leasing.  U.S Bancorp operates in the Midwest and Western United States.

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US Bancorp (USB US)

US Banks - New HFD Shows Loans Down $22bn From 28 Jun To 16 Aug & Large Time Deposits up 76% YoY

US banks' HFD data shows loans down $22bn in recent weeks - a major worsening - and 76% growth in the latest week YoY for large time deposits. B/S...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly Balance Sheet Data Suggests Rapid Growth Of Credit Costs

Weekly balance sheet data for US banks is released every Saturday and the data through 14 June suggests major worsening in credit metrics at large...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Not Just Silicon Risk

US banks face more than just Silicon Valley risk, namely with respect to rising deposit rates, worsening net interest income, and rising credit costs.

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Strong Weekly Balance Sheet Figures for Loans, Loan Loss Reserves and Time Deposits

The largest US banks by assets are showing HFD that is increasingly positive for loan growth, loan loss reserves growth and large time deposits...

Daniel Tabbush

Fed Rate Cut - Real Lending Rates at 5.97% Near Where Peaking In August 2007

Real rates are too high in the US and they have been rising sharply. This is likely where the the Fed will need to focus when considering rate...

Daniel Tabbush

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