Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Despite the record highs for US indices, most EM currencies have regained USD levels seen pre-election as volatility subsides and carry trades resume.
</li>
<li>Even the Turkish Lira and Mexican Peso have found support since late January while speculative long USD positioning has reversed to levels last seen in October.</li>
<li>Corporate credit spreads have tightened further as retail funds flood into the sector YTD - EM high yield spreads are just 2.7% currently from over 5% a year ago.</li>
<li>
That backdrop underpins the…</li>
</ul>



Despite the record highs for US indices, most EM currencies have regained USD levels seen pre-election as volatility subsides and carry trades resume.

Even the Turkish Lira and Mexican Peso have found support since late January while speculative long USD positioning has reversed to levels last seen in October.
Corporate credit spreads have tightened further as retail funds flood into the sector YTD - EM high yield spreads are just 2.7% currently from over 5% a year ago.

That backdrop underpins the…


US Earnings Momentum Weak as Greek Saga Resumes

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of February, groundhog day is suppose to portend the arrival of spring but since the 1993 film of the same name has come to mean that feeling of being caught in a repeating time-loop. And so we find that in February 2017, the German Finance Minister, the Greek Prime Minister, the board of the IMF and Greece's Eurozone partners are arguing about the…

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of February, groundhog day is suppose to portend the arrival of spring but since the 1993 film of the same name has come to mean that feeling of being caught in a repeating time-loop. And so we find that in February 2017, the German Finance Minister, the Greek Prime Minister, the board of the IMF and Greece's Eurozone partners are arguing about the…

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

This topic has nagged me for some time. Two months ago when the Case-Shiller Home Price Index “made a new high” and after new highs again this week, I’ve been doing back of the envelope calculations based on my property portfolio to show how screwed tracking prices in property investments can be.I believe such coverage of property price performance is wholly misleading and misrepresents real returns for investors and home buyers.A  home and a home price  that was transacted even 10 years ago was a substantially different home to today’s home. A recognized stock price (not DRYS!)  over 10 years has a much better chance of reflecting price movements that correspond to positive and negative returns to the investor directly.The distortion in property prices comes from a slew of adjustments we need to make, and which can shave several percent off a value per year! I’ve used my own property transaction data to work out the adjustments that should be made. There are two main categories which need to be made (with many sub-categories).

This topic has nagged me for some time. Two months ago when the Case-Shiller Home Price Index “made a new high” and after new highs again this week, I’ve been doing back of the envelope calculations based on my property portfolio to show how screwed tracking prices in property investments can be.I believe such coverage of property price performance is wholly misleading and misrepresents real returns for investors and home buyers.A  home and a home price  that was transacted even 10 years ago was a substantially different home to today’s home. A recognized stock price (not DRYS!)  over 10 years has a much better chance of reflecting price movements that correspond to positive and negative returns to the investor directly.The distortion in property prices comes from a slew of adjustments we need to make, and which can shave several percent off a value per year! I’ve used my own property transaction data to work out the adjustments that should be made. There are two main categories which need to be made (with many sub-categories).

Case-Shiller Property Indices Hugely Misleading...and Different from Stocks (LT Invst Windows Tight)

<ul>
<li>The consensus expected a rampant USD this year, but this wasn’t consistent with the Trump trade agenda – the dollar has had its worst January in over a decade.</li>
<li>That has helped the US tech sector rebound strongly from the post-election selloff, as have the leading Chinese web names – secular growth is back in fashion.</li>
<li>The Q4 results from Microsoft, Intel and Alphabet indicated that cloud computing is the most significant near-term driver of tech sector revenues but AI will follow soon.</li>
<li>Alibaba is…</li>
</ul>


The consensus expected a rampant USD this year, but this wasn’t consistent with the Trump trade agenda – the dollar has had its worst January in over a decade.
That has helped the US tech sector rebound strongly from the post-election selloff, as have the leading Chinese web names – secular growth is back in fashion.
The Q4 results from Microsoft, Intel and Alphabet indicated that cloud computing is the most significant near-term driver of tech sector revenues but AI will follow soon.
Alibaba is…


Tech Rebounds as USD Reverses, Macau Recovery Continues...

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

The new US administration is heading towards a stand-off with China over trade by eschewing the incremental approach of Obama’s administration in favour of more specific targets, to be pursued by bilateral negotiations/ultimatums in addition to the usual multilateral channels. The Trump team is targeting four distinct areas to help reduce the bilateral trade imbalance, all of which touch on what the Chinese authorities perceive as vital national interests, so it is difficult to identify any…

The new US administration is heading towards a stand-off with China over trade by eschewing the incremental approach of Obama’s administration in favour of more specific targets, to be pursued by bilateral negotiations/ultimatums in addition to the usual multilateral channels. The Trump team is targeting four distinct areas to help reduce the bilateral trade imbalance, all of which touch on what the Chinese authorities perceive as vital national interests, so it is difficult to identify any…

Trump and China; the Calm Before the Storm?

United States

U.S. Bancorp is a diversified financial services company that provides lending and depository services, cash management, foreign exchange and trust and investment management services.  The Company also provides credit card services, mortgage banking, insurance, brokerage, and leasing.  U.S Bancorp operates in the Midwest and Western United States.

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US Bancorp (USB US)

US Earnings Momentum Weak as Greek Saga Resumes

Despite the record highs for US indices, most EM currencies have regained USD levels seen pre-election as volatility subsides and carry trades...

Sean Maher

Money Matters: I Mera Tis Marmotas

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of...

Stewart Paterson

Case-Shiller Property Indices Hugely Misleading...and Different from Stocks (LT Invst Windows Tight)

This topic has nagged me for some time. Two months ago when the Case-Shiller Home Price Index “made a new high” and after new highs again this...

Charles De Trenck

Tech Rebounds as USD Reverses, Macau Recovery Continues...

The consensus expected a rampant USD this year, but this wasn’t consistent with the Trump trade agenda – the dollar has had its worst January in...

Sean Maher

Trump and China; the Calm Before the Storm?

The new US administration is heading towards a stand-off with China over trade by eschewing the incremental approach of Obama’s administration in...

John-Paul Smith

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