Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for a global index and a bunch of local indices ended last week. The announcement of the changes will be made in 1 week to 4 weeks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 8 February.</li>
<li>The inflows to mainland China ETFs continue for another week. There were big inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-india-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:282:1" rel="noopener">iShares India ETF (INDA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-india-small-cap" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32064:1" rel="noopener">Ishares India Small-Cap (SMIN US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review period for a global index and a bunch of local indices ended last week. The announcement of the changes will be made in 1 week to 4 weeks.

Strike Energy (STX AU) will replace Costa Group Holdings (CGC AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 8 February.
The inflows to mainland China ETFs continue for another week. There were big inflows to iShares India ETF (INDA US) and Ishares India Small-Cap (SMIN US). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: N225, ASX, STAR50, NIFTY50, KRX New Deal, UOL SP, Korea Passive

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The MSCI revised the Adani Group weighting after reviewing FF. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a>affected. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green (ADANIGR IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:247:1" rel="noopener">Adani Power (ADANI IN)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-ports-special-economic-zone-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:246:1" rel="noopener">Adani Ports (ADSEZ IN)</a> not affected. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hongkong-land-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15465:1" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land (HKL SP)</a> is dirt cheap at 0.3x P/B. It is a China re-opening play. Plus the company is buying back shares. </li>
<li>The Nikkei didn't write an article on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a> when everyone else did. They waited another day, with what appears to be a zinger on price at "about ¥2trln". </li>
</ul>


The MSCI revised the Adani Group weighting after reviewing FF. Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)affected. Adani Green (ADANIGR IN), Adani Power (ADANI IN), and Adani Ports (ADSEZ IN) not affected. 

Hongkong Land (HKL SP) is dirt cheap at 0.3x P/B. It is a China re-opening play. Plus the company is buying back shares. 
The Nikkei didn't write an article on Toshiba (6502 JP) when everyone else did. They waited another day, with what appears to be a zinger on price at "about ¥2trln". 


Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Hongkong Land, Toshiba, Haw Par, Renault/Nissan

<ul>
<li>Last November I highlighted <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haw-par-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9898:1" rel="noopener">Haw Par Corp (HPAR SP)</a>'s multi-year trough levels on an implied stub valuation, and on an HPAR/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-overseas-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:113:1" rel="noopener">UOB (UOB SP)</a> ratio.</li>
<li>That trade has panned out well as the ratio steadily increased. But it remains below the 200 MDA.</li>
<li>A recovery in Tiger Balm sales is expected in Haw Par's full-year results later this month.  UOB's financials, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uol-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:142:1" rel="noopener">UOL (UOL SP)</a>'s, are also due out this month.</li>
</ul>


Last November I highlighted Haw Par Corp (HPAR SP)'s multi-year trough levels on an implied stub valuation, and on an HPAR/UOB (UOB SP) ratio.
That trade has panned out well as the ratio steadily increased. But it remains below the 200 MDA.
A recovery in Tiger Balm sales is expected in Haw Par's full-year results later this month.  UOB's financials, and UOL (UOL SP)'s, are also due out this month.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sm-investments-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20015:1" rel="noopener">SM Investments (SM PM)</a>, the leading Filipino conglomerate, recently announced strong 9M22 earnings, buoyed by increased economic activity and strong consumer sentiment.</li>
<li>The standout was the unlisted SM Retail segment which recorded net income of PHP 11.5bn, exceeding 2019 pre-pandemic levels. </li>
<li>The implied stub/share - net of all listcos - of PHP 208/share compares to the five-year average of PHP 273/share, and the two-year average of PHP 252 preceding Covid. </li>
</ul>



SM Investments (SM PM), the leading Filipino conglomerate, recently announced strong 9M22 earnings, buoyed by increased economic activity and strong consumer sentiment.
The standout was the unlisted SM Retail segment which recorded net income of PHP 11.5bn, exceeding 2019 pre-pandemic levels. 
The implied stub/share - net of all listcos - of PHP 208/share compares to the five-year average of PHP 273/share, and the two-year average of PHP 252 preceding Covid. 


SM Investments (SM PM): Retail Income Now Exceeds Pre-Covid Levels

<ul>
<li>The in-specie distribution is basically a forward block sale of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>. You know it's coming. You don't know how large it is. It is not unlike a lockup situation. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hainan-rubber-industry-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10551:1" rel="noopener">China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH)</a> will start with 36% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/halcyon-agri-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18191:1" rel="noopener">Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)</a>. Founders and friends have ~10%. Getting to 50%+ will be easy.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23726:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (B)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A)</a> ratio is near a 19-year low. The last time it dipped to 6% under its 3mo average, it bounced back in 4 weeks. </li>
</ul>


The in-specie distribution is basically a forward block sale of Meituan (3690 HK). You know it's coming. You don't know how large it is. It is not unlike a lockup situation. 

China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH) will start with 36% in Halcyon Agri (HACL SP). Founders and friends have ~10%. Getting to 50%+ will be easy.
The Swire Pacific (B) / Swire Pacific (A) ratio is near a 19-year low. The last time it dipped to 6% under its 3mo average, it bounced back in 4 weeks. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Tencent/Meituan, Halcyon Agri, Swire Pac, Perpetual/Pendal, OZ Minerals

Singapore

City Developments Limited is a property developer and owner. The Company, through its subsidiaries, are principally engaged in the investment of properties and shares, property management, project management and the provision of consultancy services, hospitality-related information technology, and procurement services. City Developments has a global presence.

Frasers Property Limited provides real estate ownership and development services. The Company engages in the development of land, housing projects, apartments, as well as commercial, industrial, and retail properties. Frasers Property serves customers globally.

Singapore Land Group Limited operates as a real estate company. The Company develops and invests in properties, and provides property management, information technology, development management and consultancy services, as well as trades in computers and related products, and invests in hotels and retail centers. Singapore Land Group serves clients in Singapore.

Ascendas India Trust is a business trust that invests in real estate. The trust acquires, owns, and develops land for business use.

GuocoLand Limited is a regional property company with operations in Singapore, China, Malaysia and Vietnam. Headquartered in Singapore, the principal business activities of GuocoLand and its subsidiaries (“the Group”) are property development, property investment, hotel operations and property management.

Ho Bee Land Limited develops and invests in real estate properties in Singapore and United Kingdom.  The Company also operates hotels.

Wing Tai Holdings Limited is an investment holding company whose subsidiaries invest in and develop properties, manufacture woven labels, and trade garments and architectural products and accessories.  The Company also provides management services and operates restaurants.

First Sponsor Group Limited, an investment holding company, is engaged in the property development and investment activities primarily in the People's Republic of China. Its properties include residential and commercial properties.

Yanlord Land Group Ltd is a real estate development company. The Company develops high-end residential property projects in the Peoples Republic of China.

Bukit Sembawang Estates Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, property mortgage financing, and the holding of properties and investments. The Company provides residential property development throughout Singapore.

AEON Mall Co., Ltd. develops, manages, and maintains large-scale shopping malls throughout Japan. The Company develops shopping malls, rent the space, manages and maintains the shopping malls.

Highwealth Construction Corp. develops and sells residential and commercial buildings which are constructed by independent construction contractors.

Brigade Enterprises Limited operates as a real estate development company. The Company focuses on the development of residential, commercial, and hospitality properties.

China World Trade Center Co., Ltd. provides real estate services. The Company operates office building leasing business, shopping mall leasing business, apartment leasing business, hotel management business, and other related businesses. China World Trade Center offers services in China.

Tokyo Tatemono Co., Ltd. develops, sells, and leases commercial buildings, condominiums, and houses.   The Company also develops and manages hotels, vacation houses, leisure facilities, and resort places.

Lendlease Group designs, develops, and manages property and infrastructure assets. The Company constructs apartments, commercial buildings, government offices, retirement living, and educational facilities. Lendlease serves customers worldwide.

I-Sunny Construction & Development Co., Ltd. develops and sells real estate properties.

Isunny Construction&Development (2540 TT)

C&D International Investment Group Limited is a green building property development and management company based in Hong Kong.

Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. develops and sells real estate properties. The Company also manages and operates hotels.

Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Grp (002244 CH)

Open House Co.,Ltd. provides real estate services. The Company offers services including renting, buying, selling and appraising real estate.

UOL Group Limited is a property company. The Company has a diversified portfolio of development and investment properties, hotels, and serviced suites. UOL Group, through its subsidiary owns a portfolio of commercial assets and hotels. UOL Group operates in Asia, Oceania, and North America.

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UOL Group (UOL SP)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: N225, ASX, STAR50, NIFTY50, KRX New Deal, UOL SP, Korea Passive

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in SPACE: Adani Group, Hongkong Land, Toshiba, Haw Par, Renault/Nissan

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Haw Par Corp Is Still Trading Cheap

I still like Haw Par here, and recommend going long outright or hedging against UOB (~58% of its NAV, 90% of its market cap).

David Blennerhassett

SM Investments (SM PM): Retail Income Now Exceeds Pre-Covid Levels

SMIC is benefitting from increased economic activity and buoyant consumer sentiment. Go outright long or hedge out SM Prime and BDO, in which the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tencent/Meituan, Halcyon Agri, Swire Pac, Perpetual/Pendal, OZ Minerals

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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