Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

Our base case call for the 10yr yield touted a rise to the 3.08%-3.176% projection range with a  fade due above 3.10% and attempting to tie in with our DXY 94.20 fade sequence back to 92.60 if not the 92 support area before we resume the USD rise. Concern lies with the USD not responding in line with the yield fade. We are monitoring gold and base metals for a response to weaker yields and a USD fade sequence.Yield/price charts outlined last week showed a clear 5 wave up move, near or at a…

Our base case call for the 10yr yield touted a rise to the 3.08%-3.176% projection range with a  fade due above 3.10% and attempting to tie in with our DXY 94.20 fade sequence back to 92.60 if not the 92 support area before we resume the USD rise. Concern lies with the USD not responding in line with the yield fade. We are monitoring gold and base metals for a response to weaker yields and a USD fade sequence.Yield/price charts outlined last week showed a clear 5 wave up move, near or at a…

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


FX & Rates

This note summarises recent CrossBorder Capital bond research. In it we introduce a new predictive yield curve parameter and show how liquidity factors dominate the term structure. Together they suggest that the US economy is set to slow over the next 6-12 months, because of weak liquidity, and that Federal Reserve policy-makers will consequently struggle to force through the seven rate rises slated in their “forward guidance” to end-2020. In short, we foresee US policy rates peaking at 2½%, not…

This note summarises recent CrossBorder Capital bond research. In it we introduce a new predictive yield curve parameter and show how liquidity factors dominate the term structure. Together they suggest that the US economy is set to slow over the next 6-12 months, because of weak liquidity, and that Federal Reserve policy-makers will consequently struggle to force through the seven rate rises slated in their “forward guidance” to end-2020. In short, we foresee US policy rates peaking at 2½%, not…

Fewer US Interest Rate Hikes Ahead? Economy Pointing Down, Bond Prices Could Soon Rally

Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.” If we had a dollar for every time we have read these words in the last few months we would be very rich. The OIS-Libor spread, the gold/silver ratio, the 10-year Treasury yield, volatility indices, debt ratios, valuations – everything, it seems, points to a massive market correction. However, we warn against the trap of looking for historical ‘rhymes’. There has been no historical precedent to today’s markets and, as a result, some of the market-charting devices used of old may well be worthless. Economic growth and market performance do not coincide all that much but it is unusual for markets to collapse when economic growth is healthy, debt servicing ability is sound and the banking sector is without obvious weak points - subprime lending being the obvious factor in 2007. Our recession indicators are not flashing warning signals, the US is not a threat to global financial markets and the US economy shows no trouble ahead this year.

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.” If we had a dollar for every time we have read these words in the last few months we would be very rich. The OIS-Libor spread, the gold/silver ratio, the 10-year Treasury yield, volatility indices, debt ratios, valuations – everything, it seems, points to a massive market correction. However, we warn against the trap of looking for historical ‘rhymes’. There has been no historical precedent to today’s markets and, as a result, some of the market-charting devices used of old may well be worthless. Economic growth and market performance do not coincide all that much but it is unusual for markets to collapse when economic growth is healthy, debt servicing ability is sound and the banking sector is without obvious weak points - subprime lending being the obvious factor in 2007. Our recession indicators are not flashing warning signals, the US is not a threat to global financial markets and the US economy shows no trouble ahead this year.

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

A temporary top and the beginning of a bear market rally are likely on a two-month view. The next target at 3.12% (wave v = iii) has just been hit; the only other short-term target in this area is 3.34% (v = i+iii).  However, the rally pattern from last September finally looks more complete, although it could easily produce a minor correction and then a further high prior to a larger correction (i.e. 50 b.p.+).Divergence has appeared in daily momentum as well as the 8-week RSI , and 21-week…

A temporary top and the beginning of a bear market rally are likely on a two-month view. The next target at 3.12% (wave v = iii) has just been hit; the only other short-term target in this area is 3.34% (v = i+iii).  However, the rally pattern from last September finally looks more complete, although it could easily produce a minor correction and then a further high prior to a larger correction (i.e. 50 b.p.+).Divergence has appeared in daily momentum as well as the 8-week RSI , and 21-week…

US 10-Year:  Due to Pause in Its Bear Market

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

We see higher US and global yields developing.  Global equity market confidence may be returning, supported by conciliatory moves on US trade relationships with China, stability returning to the USD after a recent rebound, and a likely rebound in global economic reports in Q2.  Oil and broader commodity prices remain elevated and are indicative of higher demand.  They may further boost global inflation expectations.  Wage growth is rising more clearly in the major economies experiencing tightening labour markets.

We see higher US and global yields developing.  Global equity market confidence may be returning, supported by conciliatory moves on US trade relationships with China, stability returning to the USD after a recent rebound, and a likely rebound in global economic reports in Q2.  Oil and broader commodity prices remain elevated and are indicative of higher demand.  They may further boost global inflation expectations.  Wage growth is rising more clearly in the major economies experiencing tightening labour markets.

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

10yr and 5yr Yield Fade Call and Targets

Our base case call for the 10yr yield touted a rise to the 3.08%-3.176% projection range with a fade due above 3.10% and attempting to tie in with...

Thomas Schroeder

Fewer US Interest Rate Hikes Ahead? Economy Pointing Down, Bond Prices Could Soon Rally

This note summarises recent CrossBorder Capital bond research. In it we introduce a new predictive yield curve parameter and show how liquidity...

Michael J. Howell

A Fruitless Game: What History?

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes.” If we had a dollar for every time we have read these words in the last few months we would be very...

Dr. Jim Walker

US 10-Year: Due to Pause in Its Bear Market

A temporary top and the beginning of a bear market rally are likely on a two-month view. The next target at 3.12% (wave v = iii) has just been hit;...

Peter Beuttell

Global Bond Yields Set to Rise Further

We see higher US and global yields developing. Global equity market confidence may be returning, supported by conciliatory moves on US trade...

Greg Gibbs

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