Fewer US Interest Rate Hikes Ahead? Economy Pointing Down, Bond Prices Could Soon Rally

US 10-Year:  Due to Pause in Its Bear Market

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

A top is still being signalled, and divergence in weekly momentum  is more consistent with a large bear market rally into the 2.00-2.45% zone. All of our near-term targets have been hit (or as good as) apart from 3.34% (where wave v = i+iii), and there is still the possibility of a brief spike upwards, but it should be quickly retraced.  However, what has not been clear is which of two equally good wave counts is ending.Divergence remains in place in daily momentum as well as the 8-week RSI, and…

A top is still being signalled, and divergence in weekly momentum  is more consistent with a large bear market rally into the 2.00-2.45% zone. All of our near-term targets have been hit (or as good as) apart from 3.34% (where wave v = i+iii), and there is still the possibility of a brief spike upwards, but it should be quickly retraced.  However, what has not been clear is which of two equally good wave counts is ending.Divergence remains in place in daily momentum as well as the 8-week RSI, and…

US 10-Year Yield:  Deeper Correction Ahead