Political analyst

Aaron Timms

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

With 80 days to go until the midterm elections, the picture is looking good but not great for the Democrats. The focus of attention is squarely on the race for the House: all 435 seats are up for grabs, with the Democrats needing to gain an additional 23 from their present total to flip the House. (Only 33 Senate seats are up for election; since most of them are held by Democrats, the likelihood of the Republicans losing the upper house is remote.)
Several factors suggest the Democrats may not…

With 80 days to go until the midterm elections, the picture is looking good but not great for the Democrats. The focus of attention is squarely on the race for the House: all 435 seats are up for grabs, with the Democrats needing to gain an additional 23 from their present total to flip the House. (Only 33 Senate seats are up for election; since most of them are held by Democrats, the likelihood of the Republicans losing the upper house is remote.)
Several factors suggest the Democrats may not…

Don’t Hold Your Breath for a “Blue Wave” in the Midterms

Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

Credit

As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 1.75%–2.0% today (the vote was unanimous, even as the hawkish Kansas City Fed President Esther George joined the voting rotation due to the vacancy created by the move to the New York Fed by John Williams).  The policy statement noted that “the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in…

As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 1.75%–2.0% today (the vote was unanimous, even as the hawkish Kansas City Fed President Esther George joined the voting rotation due to the vacancy created by the move to the New York Fed by John Williams).  The policy statement noted that “the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in…

Fed Chairman Powell delivered the first leg of his semiannual testimony on monetary policy and the economy before the Senate Banking Committee this morning.Powell was upbeat on the labor market saying “the job market has continued to strengthen … An average of 215,000 net new jobs were created each month in the first half of this year. That number is somewhat higher than the monthly average for 2017. It is also a good deal higher than the average number of people who enter the work force each…

Fed Chairman Powell delivered the first leg of his semiannual testimony on monetary policy and the economy before the Senate Banking Committee this morning.Powell was upbeat on the labor market saying “the job market has continued to strengthen … An average of 215,000 net new jobs were created each month in the first half of this year. That number is somewhat higher than the monthly average for 2017. It is also a good deal higher than the average number of people who enter the work force each…

Fed Chairman Powell’s Semiannual Testimony Before Congress

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


FX & Rates

This old Wall Street adage should be writ large across traders screens and read in plurals, because its not just the US Federal Reserve that is tightening monetary policy – many other policy-makers are too. Across the eighty-odd Central Banks we regularly monitor each month, a whopping two-thirds are now running tight liquidity policies. This high figure, which in practice rarely gets much higher, is shown in the first chart. In fact, in the Developed World the proportion jumps to a huge…

This old Wall Street adage should be writ large across traders screens and read in plurals, because its not just the US Federal Reserve that is tightening monetary policy – many other policy-makers are too. Across the eighty-odd Central Banks we regularly monitor each month, a whopping two-thirds are now running tight liquidity policies. This high figure, which in practice rarely gets much higher, is shown in the first chart. In fact, in the Developed World the proportion jumps to a huge…

Don’t Fight The Fedsssssssss….World Money Is Too Tight

Core CPI prices rose 0.2% in June, as expected, and the year-over-year core CPI inflation rate picked up to 2.3% from 2.2%.  Both owners’ equivalent rent and rent of primary residence rose 0.3%; however, shelter prices rose only 0.1% as hotel prices posted their largest monthly decline on record (data back to 1967).  Medical care prices rose 0.4%, new vehicle prices increased 0.4%, used vehicle prices rose 0.7%, while airfares dropped a further 0.9% and apparel prices also fell 0.9%.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/057/565/original/071218acht1.png?1531402021" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="57565"></figure><div class="content-remarks">Source…</div>

Core CPI prices rose 0.2% in June, as expected, and the year-over-year core CPI inflation rate picked up to 2.3% from 2.2%.  Both owners’ equivalent rent and rent of primary residence rose 0.3%; however, shelter prices rose only 0.1% as hotel prices posted their largest monthly decline on record (data back to 1967).  Medical care prices rose 0.4%, new vehicle prices increased 0.4%, used vehicle prices rose 0.7%, while airfares dropped a further 0.9% and apparel prices also fell 0.9%.Source…

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Don’t Hold Your Breath for a “Blue Wave” in the Midterms

With 80 days to go until the midterm elections, the picture is looking good but not great for the Democrats. The focus of attention is squarely on...

Aaron Timms

Status Quo Fed Policy Statement

As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 1.75%–2.0% today (the vote was...

RDQ Economics

Fed Chairman Powell’s Semiannual Testimony Before Congress

Fed Chairman Powell delivered the first leg of his semiannual testimony on monetary policy and the economy before the Senate Banking Committee this...

RDQ Economics

Don’t Fight The Fedsssssssss….World Money Is Too Tight

This old Wall Street adage should be writ large across traders screens and read in plurals, because its not just the US Federal Reserve that is...

Michael J. Howell

U.S. Inflation Continues to Grind Higher

Core CPI prices rose 0.2% in June, as expected, and the year-over-year core CPI inflation rate picked up to 2.3% from 2.2%. Both owners’...

RDQ Economics

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