Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have discussed our expectations for rising rates for quite some time, but the 10-year yield is now testing 40-year downtrend resistance which comes in at 2.80-2.82%.</li>
<li>If there was ever a time for interest rates to move lower, this is where it needs to happen -- and it would be fitting, considering extremely bearish bond sentiment.</li>
<li>On the other hand, if the 10-year Treasury is above 2.82% we see a secular reversal where rising rates would be the new normal</li>
</ul>


We have discussed our expectations for rising rates for quite some time, but the 10-year yield is now testing 40-year downtrend resistance which comes in at 2.80-2.82%.
If there was ever a time for interest rates to move lower, this is where it needs to happen -- and it would be fitting, considering extremely bearish bond sentiment.
On the other hand, if the 10-year Treasury is above 2.82% we see a secular reversal where rising rates would be the new normal


10-Year Treasury Yield Testing 40-Year Resistance; Upgrading Health Care to Overweight

Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>I am not sure everybody has grasped yet how important was the message Jerome Powell sent yesterday during the FOMC press conference.</li>
<li>While market commentators are focusing mostly on the mere 25 bps hike and the lack of details on Quantitative Tightening, I believe they are missing the point: the forward guidance was very hawkish, and very clearly so.</li>
<li>
Powell is becoming more and more hawkish as time goes by. I identified 4 key hawkish messages he conveyed
</li>
</ul>


I am not sure everybody has grasped yet how important was the message Jerome Powell sent yesterday during the FOMC press conference.
While market commentators are focusing mostly on the mere 25 bps hike and the lack of details on Quantitative Tightening, I believe they are missing the point: the forward guidance was very hawkish, and very clearly so.

Powell is becoming more and more hawkish as time goes by. I identified 4 key hawkish messages he conveyed



The Fed is Hitting The Brakes: Are You Wearing your Seatbelt?

Technology Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bearish at the index level considering we have yet to see any developments that suggest a bottom is in. </li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), and Russell Micro Cap (IWC) indexes remain in downtrends.</li>
<li>In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials, Manufacturing,  Services, and Utilities: MA-14 Fertilizer, MF-15 Railroad Equipment &amp; Products, SV-13 Construction &amp; Engineering, Large-Cap, UT-04 Electric, Mid-Atlantic</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bearish at the index level considering we have yet to see any developments that suggest a bottom is in. 
The S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), and Russell Micro Cap (IWC) indexes remain in downtrends.
In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials, Manufacturing,  Services, and Utilities: MA-14 Fertilizer, MF-15 Railroad Equipment &amp; Products, SV-13 Construction &amp; Engineering, Large-Cap, UT-04 Electric, Mid-Atlantic


Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>US rates are trapped between inflationary pressures on one hand, and risk aversion and growth uncertainty on the other, with the latter dominating for now.</li>
<li>The previous strong correlation of EM rates with the US has now flipped as they continue to rise even with US rates rallying.</li>
<li>The spread of EM rates to the US is at its widest in a decade but it should remain that way as long as rates volatility remains high.</li>
</ul>


US rates are trapped between inflationary pressures on one hand, and risk aversion and growth uncertainty on the other, with the latter dominating for now.
The previous strong correlation of EM rates with the US has now flipped as they continue to rise even with US rates rallying.
The spread of EM rates to the US is at its widest in a decade but it should remain that way as long as rates volatility remains high.


EM Rates Detach from the US Amid Russian Contagion

<ul>
<li>We are at important global macro crossroads: Central Banks are trying to remove accommodation from markets to tame inflationary pressures right at a point when the impulse of global growth has lost momentum</li>
<li>Over the last few weeks, bond yields have dropped and yield curves continued to flatten across the board</li>
<li>But the most interesting moves are visible once you decompose nominal yields into inflation break-evens and real yields, and focus on forward looking metrics and probability distributions</li>
</ul>


We are at important global macro crossroads: Central Banks are trying to remove accommodation from markets to tame inflationary pressures right at a point when the impulse of global growth has lost momentum
Over the last few weeks, bond yields have dropped and yield curves continued to flatten across the board
But the most interesting moves are visible once you decompose nominal yields into inflation break-evens and real yields, and focus on forward looking metrics and probability distributions


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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

10-Year Treasury Yield Testing 40-Year Resistance; Upgrading Health Care to Overweight

10-year Treas yield $TNX is now testing 40-year downtrend resistance at 2.8-2.82%. If interest rates are to move lower, now would be the time,...

Vermilion Research

The Fed is Hitting The Brakes: Are You Wearing your Seatbelt?

I am not sure everybody has grasped yet how important was the message Jerome Powell sent yesterday during the FOMC press conference.

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Downgrading Technology To Underweight

Downgrading Technology to underweight. Attractive and actionable stocks highlighted: Fertilizer, Railroad Equipment & Products, Construction &...

Vermilion Research

EM Rates Detach from the US Amid Russian Contagion

The spread of EM rates to the US is at its widest in a decade but it should remain that way as long as rates volatility remains high, given the...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

The Bears are Knocking at The Door

We are at important global macro crossroads: Central Banks are trying to remove accommodation from markets to tame inflationary pressures right at...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)