Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Recently the MOVE and 10 year yield 3m rolling correlation went back to its 2022 levels, so is it time for a cocktail of a rates volatility wrecking ball ala summer 2022 again?</li><li>Then just short the long end of the curve given the resilient US economy, BoJ’s YCC hikes and a procyclical fiscal policy in the US.</li><li>We see this scenario as one in which high duration generation Y &amp; Z assets get hammered and the boomer trade is en vogue.</li></ul>

Recently the MOVE and 10 year yield 3m rolling correlation went back to its 2022 levels, so is it time for a cocktail of a rates volatility wrecking ball ala summer 2022 again?Then just short the long end of the curve given the resilient US economy, BoJ’s YCC hikes and a procyclical fiscal policy in the US.We see this scenario as one in which high duration generation Y &amp; Z assets get hammered and the boomer trade is en vogue.

Commodity Watch: Alternatives to Betting Directly on the Curve

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Hope you’re enjoying the weekend out there! Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility with the CPI report released this Thursday along with bonds remaining indecisive about the future market direction.</li><li>The overall sentiment this week again has optimism written all over it with equity sentiment still hovering at 2021 highs on some of the short-term indicators, and GBP and EUR are continuing their positioning resilience, while commodity markets are starting to signal weaker demand again after a couple of weeks of strength.</li><li>Follow along as we dissect market sentiment and positioning data below.</li></ul>

Hope you’re enjoying the weekend out there! Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility with the CPI report released this Thursday along with bonds remaining indecisive about the future market direction.The overall sentiment this week again has optimism written all over it with equity sentiment still hovering at 2021 highs on some of the short-term indicators, and GBP and EUR are continuing their positioning resilience, while commodity markets are starting to signal weaker demand again after a couple of weeks of strength.Follow along as we dissect market sentiment and positioning data below.

Positioning Watch – The Chinese Disappointment Is Written All over the Latest Positioning

<ul>
<li>As highlighted in our data dive yesterday on the curve we see the steepener case as increasingly compelling.</li>
<li>From our portfolio, you will also know that we have been moving towards a boomer composition and in the following short note we’ll try to support that thesis.</li>
<li> Why would the curve slope back our boomer position?</li>
</ul>


As highlighted in our data dive yesterday on the curve we see the steepener case as increasingly compelling.
From our portfolio, you will also know that we have been moving towards a boomer composition and in the following short note we’ll try to support that thesis.
 Why would the curve slope back our boomer position?


Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our Wednesday series where we take you through the world of global macro and what to look out for going forward.</li>
<li>With US CPI being released tomorrow – where we as always will cover the most important take-aways post-release – there is room for market movements as the disinflation narrative continues amidst the possibility of a positive surprise in headline CPI due to base effects.</li>
<li>We’ll as always be short and concise and let you into our thinking regarding asset allocation and positioning ahead of the data/events mentioned.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our Wednesday series where we take you through the world of global macro and what to look out for going forward.
With US CPI being released tomorrow – where we as always will cover the most important take-aways post-release – there is room for market movements as the disinflation narrative continues amidst the possibility of a positive surprise in headline CPI due to base effects.
We’ll as always be short and concise and let you into our thinking regarding asset allocation and positioning ahead of the data/events mentioned.


5 Things We Watch – Fed Overtightening, Curve Steepening, US CPI, BoJ & China

<ul>
<li>“Money grows on the tree of persistence.” – Japanese Proverb. Either you do Japan, or Japan will do you! We have been covering Japan extensively throughout the year and it saved us from being run over by a steepener-bus in markets over the past week.</li>
<li>The Bank of Japan is still active in the JGB markets after having moved the needle on the YCC-cap, but they are much less interventionist than just 3 months ago.</li>
<li>Japanese 2yr yields are now trading above 0% and the BoJ has not really been active in the 1-3yr space lately. This could be a signal that Governor Ueda now plans on guiding markets instead of buying them to keep volatility low.</li>
</ul>


“Money grows on the tree of persistence.” – Japanese Proverb. Either you do Japan, or Japan will do you! We have been covering Japan extensively throughout the year and it saved us from being run over by a steepener-bus in markets over the past week.
The Bank of Japan is still active in the JGB markets after having moved the needle on the YCC-cap, but they are much less interventionist than just 3 months ago.
Japanese 2yr yields are now trading above 0% and the BoJ has not really been active in the 1-3yr space lately. This could be a signal that Governor Ueda now plans on guiding markets instead of buying them to keep volatility low.


Steno Signals #59 – When It Rains on Janet Yellen, It Pours!

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Commodity Watch: Alternatives to Betting Directly on the Curve

With MOVE and 10 year yield 3m rolling correlation back to its 2022 levels, is it time for a cocktail of a rates volatility wrecking ball ala...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Chinese Disappointment Is Written All over the Latest Positioning

Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility...

Steno Research

Curve Steepeners and the Boomer Trade

As highlighted in our data dive yesterday on the curve we see the steepener case as increasingly compelling. From our portfolio, you will also...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch – Fed Overtightening, Curve Steepening, US CPI, BoJ & China

Welcome back to our Wednesday series where we take you through the world of global macro and what to look out for going forward. With US CPI being...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #59 – When It Rains on Janet Yellen, It Pours!

Either you do Japan, or Japan will do you! We have been covering Japan extensively throughout the year and it saved us from being run over by a...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)