Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In our Out of the Box series we aim at addressing emerging topics before they turn into consensus narratives to be ahead of the curve in price action.</li>
<li>The below chart made the rounds lately as energy prices have started increasing again due to the tight supply side caused by the Saudi Arabians and Russians.</li>
<li>We admit that the study comparing the 1970s to today is mostly esoteric, but we have ourselves pondered whether inflation dynamics could return in a second wave.</li>
</ul>


In our Out of the Box series we aim at addressing emerging topics before they turn into consensus narratives to be ahead of the curve in price action.
The below chart made the rounds lately as energy prices have started increasing again due to the tight supply side caused by the Saudi Arabians and Russians.
We admit that the study comparing the 1970s to today is mostly esoteric, but we have ourselves pondered whether inflation dynamics could return in a second wave.


Out of the Box #18: Time for the Second Inflation Wave? AAAAAAH!

<ul>
<li>Welcome to this short and sweet Energy Watch on the back of the Saudi/Russian decision to prolong cuts of supply through Q4.</li>
<li>It leaves a smell of 2022 in the air and we note how the USD, bond yields AND energy/commodity prices move up in tandem.</li>
<li>An odd cocktail, which can only happen, when Zars and Muftis are in charge of the supply/demand balance in global energy markets.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to this short and sweet Energy Watch on the back of the Saudi/Russian decision to prolong cuts of supply through Q4.
It leaves a smell of 2022 in the air and we note how the USD, bond yields AND energy/commodity prices move up in tandem.
An odd cocktail, which can only happen, when Zars and Muftis are in charge of the supply/demand balance in global energy markets.


Energy Watch: Can Oil Rally 25% Further in Q4?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).</li>
</ul>


In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).


Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

<ul>
<li>Welcome back yet again to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 of the topics that we follow in global macro this week.</li>
<li>We are in the middle of a hectic week for markets (as usual), with German Ifo numbers signaling a slowing economy in Germany, whilst EU CPI data tomorrow will paint European markets and give us a hint about what the ECB will do next.</li>
<li>In the US it’s fair to say that this week is all about the labor market, which is THE thing to watch in order to understand what the Fed will do next as the tight labor market is one of the main areas of interest for Powell.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back yet again to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 of the topics that we follow in global macro this week.
We are in the middle of a hectic week for markets (as usual), with German Ifo numbers signaling a slowing economy in Germany, whilst EU CPI data tomorrow will paint European markets and give us a hint about what the ECB will do next.
In the US it’s fair to say that this week is all about the labor market, which is THE thing to watch in order to understand what the Fed will do next as the tight labor market is one of the main areas of interest for Powell.


5 Things We Watch – EU Inflation, US Labor Market, European Money Growth, UK Stagflation & IFO

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>It’s been an ongoing struggle to be on the receiving end of rates for a couple of years and we generally find the rule of thumb to be the following: Don’t ever tactically buy bonds / receive rates until the last hike is in.</li>
<li>Conclusions up front: Inflation momentum is softening the most in Europe (also given today’s data)</li>
<li>GBP rates looks like the best receiver case among majors</li>
</ul>


It’s been an ongoing struggle to be on the receiving end of rates for a couple of years and we generally find the rule of thumb to be the following: Don’t ever tactically buy bonds / receive rates until the last hike is in.
Conclusions up front: Inflation momentum is softening the most in Europe (also given today’s data)
GBP rates looks like the best receiver case among majors


Rates Watch: Anything Weak Enough to Receive?

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Out of the Box #18: Time for the Second Inflation Wave? AAAAAAH!

In our Out of the Box series we aim at addressing emerging topics before they turn into consensus narratives to be ahead of the curve in price...

Steno Research

Energy Watch: Can Oil Rally 25% Further in Q4?

Welcome to this short and sweet Energy Watch on the back of the Saudi/Russian decision to prolong cuts of supply through Q4. It leaves a smell of...

Steno Research

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

5 Things We Watch – EU Inflation, US Labor Market, European Money Growth, UK Stagflation & IFO

Welcome back yet again to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 of the topics that we follow in global macro this week.

Steno Research

Rates Watch: Anything Weak Enough to Receive?

It’s been an ongoing struggle to be on the receiving end of rates for a couple of years and we generally find the rule of thumb to be the...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)