Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Welcome back yet again to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 of the topics that we follow in global macro this week.</li>
<li>We are in the middle of a hectic week for markets (as usual), with German Ifo numbers signaling a slowing economy in Germany, whilst EU CPI data tomorrow will paint European markets and give us a hint about what the ECB will do next.</li>
<li>In the US it’s fair to say that this week is all about the labor market, which is THE thing to watch in order to understand what the Fed will do next as the tight labor market is one of the main areas of interest for Powell.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back yet again to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 of the topics that we follow in global macro this week.
We are in the middle of a hectic week for markets (as usual), with German Ifo numbers signaling a slowing economy in Germany, whilst EU CPI data tomorrow will paint European markets and give us a hint about what the ECB will do next.
In the US it’s fair to say that this week is all about the labor market, which is THE thing to watch in order to understand what the Fed will do next as the tight labor market is one of the main areas of interest for Powell.


5 Things We Watch – EU Inflation, US Labor Market, European Money Growth, UK Stagflation & IFO

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>It’s been an ongoing struggle to be on the receiving end of rates for a couple of years and we generally find the rule of thumb to be the following: Don’t ever tactically buy bonds / receive rates until the last hike is in.</li>
<li>Conclusions up front: Inflation momentum is softening the most in Europe (also given today’s data)</li>
<li>GBP rates looks like the best receiver case among majors</li>
</ul>


It’s been an ongoing struggle to be on the receiving end of rates for a couple of years and we generally find the rule of thumb to be the following: Don’t ever tactically buy bonds / receive rates until the last hike is in.
Conclusions up front: Inflation momentum is softening the most in Europe (also given today’s data)
GBP rates looks like the best receiver case among majors


Rates Watch: Anything Weak Enough to Receive?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

First Trust Dj Internet Ind / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week (8/22/23) we discussed our expectations for an oversold bounce due to an overwhelming number of indexes/Sectors/industries testing multi-month supports, combined with Treasury yields and the DXY testing resistance.</li>
<li>The bounce has begun with the SPP ending higher last week for the first time in a month, and it is possible we have seen the lows for this pause/pullback.</li>
<li>A meaningful correction cannot happen if the SPX is above 4300-4325, but we would not be surprised to see another month or more of consolidation between 4300 and 4600.</li>
</ul>


Last week (8/22/23) we discussed our expectations for an oversold bounce due to an overwhelming number of indexes/Sectors/industries testing multi-month supports, combined with Treasury yields and the DXY testing resistance.
The bounce has begun with the SPP ending higher last week for the first time in a month, and it is possible we have seen the lows for this pause/pullback.
A meaningful correction cannot happen if the SPX is above 4300-4325, but we would not be surprised to see another month or more of consolidation between 4300 and 4600.


Oversold Bounce Underway Amid Consolidation Phase; Buys in IT Consulting, Uranium, Technology

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>As we approach the zenith of a historic hiking cycle, it’s hardly surprising to see mortgage applications plunging to unprecedented lows.</li><li>We’ve previously discussed how households that secured low rates have minimal motivation to relocate or refinance.</li><li>Consequently, there’s been a significant drop in volume, which is evident in the decline in purchase applications</li></ul>

As we approach the zenith of a historic hiking cycle, it’s hardly surprising to see mortgage applications plunging to unprecedented lows.We’ve previously discussed how households that secured low rates have minimal motivation to relocate or refinance.Consequently, there’s been a significant drop in volume, which is evident in the decline in purchase applications

Macro Nugget: US Real Estate and Interest Rates

<ul>
<li>The most pre-announced recession in human history is still yet to arrive and I don’t think it’s possible to find a period in time where the economist consensus has been continuously on the bearish side of actual outcomes, outside of the one we have just been through.</li>
<li>From a soft landing to a hard landing to NO landing.</li>
<li>That has been the pattern for economic projections both in Q4-2022 and Q1 to Q4-2023.</li>
</ul>


The most pre-announced recession in human history is still yet to arrive and I don’t think it’s possible to find a period in time where the economist consensus has been continuously on the bearish side of actual outcomes, outside of the one we have just been through.
From a soft landing to a hard landing to NO landing.
That has been the pattern for economic projections both in Q4-2022 and Q1 to Q4-2023.


Steno Signals #62 – The Recession Is Called Off (By Consensus)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

5 Things We Watch – EU Inflation, US Labor Market, European Money Growth, UK Stagflation & IFO

Welcome back yet again to our weekly ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we take you through 5 of the topics that we follow in global macro this week.

Steno Research

Rates Watch: Anything Weak Enough to Receive?

It’s been an ongoing struggle to be on the receiving end of rates for a couple of years and we generally find the rule of thumb to be the...

Steno Research

Oversold Bounce Underway Amid Consolidation Phase; Buys in IT Consulting, Uranium, Technology

Our 8/22 expectations for oversold bounce coming to fruition as major multi-month supports hold $SPX $DJI $XLK $ACWI, & Treasury yields $TNX $TYX...

Vermilion Research

Macro Nugget: US Real Estate and Interest Rates

As we approach the zenith of a historic hiking cycle, it’s hardly surprising to see mortgage applications plunging to unprecedented lows. We’ve...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #62 – The Recession Is Called Off (By Consensus)

The most pre-announced recession in human history is still yet to arrive and I don’t think it’s possible to find a period in time where the...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)