Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We of course have been totally explicit about how stocks have been a minefield to go long since August and while I entertained the thought of a brief comeback on the back of a potential breather at the long-end of the UST curve, it is rather obvious that none of that is really playing out.</li><li>The bond market is in a sad state and risk assets struggle to keep afloat and we grace ourselves of having no net exposure to either asset class.</li><li>We are currently in the process of thoroughly reviewing our portfolio and are actively considering the inclusion of bonds to profit from the prevailing disinflationary pressures and the overall subdued economic outlook</li></ul>

We of course have been totally explicit about how stocks have been a minefield to go long since August and while I entertained the thought of a brief comeback on the back of a potential breather at the long-end of the UST curve, it is rather obvious that none of that is really playing out.The bond market is in a sad state and risk assets struggle to keep afloat and we grace ourselves of having no net exposure to either asset class.We are currently in the process of thoroughly reviewing our portfolio and are actively considering the inclusion of bonds to profit from the prevailing disinflationary pressures and the overall subdued economic outlook

Portfolio Watch: Time to consider (EUR) bonds?

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.</li><li>First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.</li><li>One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks</li></ul>

Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

<ul><li>Both Biden and Xi find themselves walking on thin ice as domestic economic challenges pose a significant challenge to their foreign policy goals.</li><li>Amidst the considerable volatility in risk assets and US Treasury bonds, we believe that commodities could present a favorable risk-reward opportunity.</li><li>Our forecast of a possible recession is further complicated by price pressures arising from the pending restocking and the geopolitical risksIt’s hard to overlook the remarkable resilience of the US economy and the current turbulence in global bond markets.</li></ul>

Both Biden and Xi find themselves walking on thin ice as domestic economic challenges pose a significant challenge to their foreign policy goals.Amidst the considerable volatility in risk assets and US Treasury bonds, we believe that commodities could present a favorable risk-reward opportunity.Our forecast of a possible recession is further complicated by price pressures arising from the pending restocking and the geopolitical risksIt’s hard to overlook the remarkable resilience of the US economy and the current turbulence in global bond markets.

EM by EM #26: Biden, Blinken, Barrels & Beijing

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul>
<li>Some much-needed bids provided relief to the bedrock treasury market last week, and yields eased off a bit.</li>
<li>The relief was short-lived though, and this week’s yields continue its climb.</li>
<li>But, is now a golden opportunity for buying bonds, or is the cocktail of vast issuance, some CBs unwinding their holdings, and still poor appetite bound to send yields even higher?</li>
</ul>


Some much-needed bids provided relief to the bedrock treasury market last week, and yields eased off a bit.
The relief was short-lived though, and this week’s yields continue its climb.
But, is now a golden opportunity for buying bonds, or is the cocktail of vast issuance, some CBs unwinding their holdings, and still poor appetite bound to send yields even higher?


US Treasury Watch: An opportunity of a decade or still the pain trade?

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Geopolitical risks are building, not only because of the developments in the Middle East. Semiconductor companies, including ASML and NVIDIA, got a clear warning this week that their growth ambitions in China are at risk. </li>
<li>Chinese property developers show ‘Crypto-like’ declines, and downside risks for Commodities appear.</li>
<li>Bond yields keep pushing higher, but our fair value estimate for the 10-year US Treasury yield points to a peak.</li>
</ul>


Geopolitical risks are building, not only because of the developments in the Middle East. Semiconductor companies, including ASML and NVIDIA, got a clear warning this week that their growth ambitions in China are at risk. 
Chinese property developers show ‘Crypto-like’ declines, and downside risks for Commodities appear.
Bond yields keep pushing higher, but our fair value estimate for the 10-year US Treasury yield points to a peak.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Where’s the Plunge Protection Team?

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Portfolio Watch: Time to consider (EUR) bonds?

“It’s not apparently about expectations of higher inflation. And it’s also not mainly about shorter term policy moves”Jerome PowellHello Everyone...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

I sent Congress an urgent budget request to fund America’s national security needs to support our critical partners, including Israel and...

Steno Research

EM by EM #26: Biden, Blinken, Barrels & Beijing

Both Biden and Xi find themselves walking on thin ice as domestic economic challenges pose a significant challenge to their foreign...

Steno Research

US Treasury Watch: An opportunity of a decade or still the pain trade?

Some much-needed bids provided relief to the bedrock treasury market last week, and yields eased off a bit. The relief was short-lived though, and...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Where’s the Plunge Protection Team?

China's National Team seems absent as Chinese stocks tumble, geopolitics take center stage, but still, Sentiment is not depressed enough.

Jeroen Blokland

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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