Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from a wet and cloudy Copenhagen! Market fears are back and the rising term premiums and real rates are making their way through cross asset moves.</li><li>The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow &gt;+2% real rates for the next 10-20 years and whether equity multiples can continue to live in a QE world if QE is no longer a thing.</li><li>The repricing of cross asset trends due to rising real rates may not be over yet.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from a wet and cloudy Copenhagen! Market fears are back and the rising term premiums and real rates are making their way through cross asset moves.The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow &gt;+2% real rates for the next 10-20 years and whether equity multiples can continue to live in a QE world if QE is no longer a thing.The repricing of cross asset trends due to rising real rates may not be over yet.

Steno Signals #71 – A First Taste of the Recession Sell-Off?

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch! Every week, we assess the risk/reward across asset classes and explain our decisions in our own portfolio.</li><li>We once again note the great diversification effects from Energy over the past week.</li><li>Front month Nat Gas has been on the move in the US despite relatively weak flow data, which is a strong harbinger of an improving underlying demand dynamic in the industrial sector due to the tick-up in orders books in cyclical- and energy intensive sectors such as Chemicals.</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch! Every week, we assess the risk/reward across asset classes and explain our decisions in our own portfolio.We once again note the great diversification effects from Energy over the past week.Front month Nat Gas has been on the move in the US despite relatively weak flow data, which is a strong harbinger of an improving underlying demand dynamic in the industrial sector due to the tick-up in orders books in cyclical- and energy intensive sectors such as Chemicals.

Portfolio Watch: Equities Running Out of Gas?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Main points:– The economic outlook is uncertain and Biden is spending like there is no tomorrow.</li><li>Recession in 2024 remains our base case– The Congress seems incapable of enforcing any fiscal discipline.</li><li>Higher structural TGA levels needed for the Treasury.</li></ul>

Main points:– The economic outlook is uncertain and Biden is spending like there is no tomorrow.Recession in 2024 remains our base case– The Congress seems incapable of enforcing any fiscal discipline.Higher structural TGA levels needed for the Treasury.

Out of the Box #22: Higher for Longer, Yes. But Not What You Expect

Political Analyst | Steno Research, Steno Research

Anne Sandager

Political Analyst | Steno Research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The U.S government will shut down November 17th if a full Congress doesn’t pass 12 individual budget laws – or so-called appropriations – or adopt another Continuing Resolution (CR) that would extend the FY23 budget. </li><li>A new CR is hard to imagine given that the GOP lost their former Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, after the first CR was passed. </li><li>The U.S federal debt has undoubtedly featured heavily in the closed-door Speaker negotiations in the Republican Caucus. Cutting the nation’s $33 trillion dollar debt is a big priority among the far-right members of the GOP who ousted McCarthy – members who want promises heading into budget negotiations. </li></ul>

The U.S government will shut down November 17th if a full Congress doesn’t pass 12 individual budget laws – or so-called appropriations – or adopt another Continuing Resolution (CR) that would extend the FY23 budget. A new CR is hard to imagine given that the GOP lost their former Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, after the first CR was passed. The U.S federal debt has undoubtedly featured heavily in the closed-door Speaker negotiations in the Republican Caucus. Cutting the nation’s $33 trillion dollar debt is a big priority among the far-right members of the GOP who ousted McCarthy – members who want promises heading into budget negotiations. 

US Policy Watch: Speakership chaos and IRA explained

<ul>
<li>
The world of Macro never fails at keeping us busy and this week I reveal the 10 charts that I currently monitor daily to keep myself up to speed on allocations amidst this turbulence. Enjoy (the ride)! It’s been evident for a while that the diversification effects from US Treasuries are weak and we are now approaching a record high correlation between Equity and Bond returns. 
</li>
<li>If you haven’t already altered your portfolio composition, it is already overdue as the 60/40 portfolio seems structurally challenged.</li>
</ul>



The world of Macro never fails at keeping us busy and this week I reveal the 10 charts that I currently monitor daily to keep myself up to speed on allocations amidst this turbulence. Enjoy (the ride)!   It’s been evident for a while that the diversification effects from US Treasuries are weak and we are now approaching a record high correlation between Equity and Bond returns. 

If you haven’t already altered your portfolio composition, it is already overdue as the 60/40 portfolio seems structurally challenged.


Steno Signals #70 – 10 Charts You NEED to Monitor in Global Macro

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Steno Signals #71 – A First Taste of the Recession Sell-Off?

The biggest question to ask right now is whether the pandemic altered the geopolitical and- financial playing field to an extent that will allow...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Equities Running Out of Gas?

Front month Nat Gas has been on the move in the US despite relatively weak flow data, which is a strong harbinger of an improving underlying demand...

Steno Research

Out of the Box #22: Higher for Longer, Yes. But Not What You Expect

Main points: The economic outlook is uncertain and Biden is spending like there is no tomorrow. Recession in 2024 remains our base case– The...

Steno Research

US Policy Watch: Speakership chaos and IRA explained

The U.S. House of Representatives woke up this morning to the 22nd day without a Speaker. 4 nominees have come and gone, and today it is junior...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #70 – 10 Charts You NEED to Monitor in Global Macro

Happy Sunday from Mallorca and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial. The world of Macro never fails at keeping us busy and this week I reveal...

Steno Research

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