External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Euro-area flash inflation continued to ease in July to 5.3% y/y in line with BBG consensus, down from 5.5% y/y in June.</li><li>Core inflation remained unchanged at 5.5% y/y (BBG consensus: 5.4% y/y).Service inflation increased to 5.6% y/y in July from 5.4% y/y in June.</li><li>Not something the ECB wants to see as services prices are the most sensitive to wage growth and may be an indication that the labour market remains too tight.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Euro-area flash inflation continued to ease in July to 5.3% y/y in line with BBG consensus, down from 5.5% y/y in June.Core inflation remained unchanged at 5.5% y/y (BBG consensus: 5.4% y/y).Service inflation increased to 5.6% y/y in July from 5.4% y/y in June.Not something the ECB wants to see as services prices are the most sensitive to wage growth and may be an indication that the labour market remains too tight.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Euro-area flash inflation: Higher service inflation

<ul>
<li>The ECB hiked rates by a further 25bp, bringing the deposit rate to 3.75%.</li>
<li>The wording change in the statement explicitly left open the possibility of not raising rates further, and Lagarde confirmed this change was significant.</li>
<li>We think the ECB is done hiking rates, though future data releases will eventually determine, whether the data-dependent ECB hikes rates further.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


The ECB hiked rates by a further 25bp, bringing the deposit rate to 3.75%.
The wording change in the statement explicitly left open the possibility of not raising rates further, and Lagarde confirmed this change was significant.
We think the ECB is done hiking rates, though future data releases will eventually determine, whether the data-dependent ECB hikes rates further.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ECB Watch: The Peak Is Here or at Least Near

<ul>
<li>The FOMC today delivered a well telegraphed 25bps rate hike.</li>
<li>The new fed funds target range is 5.25% to 5.5%.</li>
<li>While the rate hike was unanimous, the Chairman said there was a range of opinions at the committee, something that we will no doubt hear more about over the next weeks and in the meeting minutes.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


The FOMC today delivered a well telegraphed 25bps rate hike.
The new fed funds target range is 5.25% to 5.5%.
While the rate hike was unanimous, the Chairman said there was a range of opinions at the committee, something that we will no doubt hear more about over the next weeks and in the meeting minutes.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Market Thinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Making Sense of the Narrative

<ul><li>The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra cut through and markets switched to bear market behaviour of selling rallies and not buying dips</li><li>Much of this we believe has been associated with leveraged structures unwinding, combined with fund redemptions, especially in tech, reversing the ‘upside crash’ of last year</li><li>Confidence is picking up slightly, but the Fed is key, in particular the extent to which it actively want the markets lower</li></ul>

The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra cut through and markets switched to bear market behaviour of selling rallies and not buying dipsMuch of this we believe has been associated with leveraged structures unwinding, combined with fund redemptions, especially in tech, reversing the ‘upside crash’ of last yearConfidence is picking up slightly, but the Fed is key, in particular the extent to which it actively want the markets lower

Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

<ul><li>Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate how this probability distribution will move over time.</li><li>In other words, you don’t need to be necessarily right on what happens next but just be able to grasp how market consensus will move from here.</li><li>Ignoring this simple principle has been a very expensive exercise for European fixed income investors over the last few weeks: the-ECB-will-never-really-hike mantra is melting under the eyes of bond investors married to a dovish narrative which has been successful for a decade but offers a very bad risk-reward today.</li></ul>

Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate how this probability distribution will move over time.In other words, you don’t need to be necessarily right on what happens next but just be able to grasp how market consensus will move from here.Ignoring this simple principle has been a very expensive exercise for European fixed income investors over the last few weeks: the-ECB-will-never-really-hike mantra is melting under the eyes of bond investors married to a dovish narrative which has been successful for a decade but offers a very bad risk-reward today.

The Biggest Macro Risk You Might Be Ignoring

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Euro-area flash inflation: Higher service inflation

Euro-area flash inflation continued to ease in July to 5.3% y/y in line with BBG consensus, down from 5.5% y/y in June. Core inflation remained...

Nordea

ECB Watch: The Peak Is Here or at Least Near

The ECB hiked rates by a further 25bp, bringing the deposit rate to 3.75%.The wording change in the statement explicitly left open the possibility...

Nordea

FOMC Review: Data dependent

While the rate hike was unanimous, the Chairman said there was a range of opinions at the committee, something that we will no doubt hear more...

Nordea

June Market Thinking

Slightly More Confident The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra...

Mark Tinker

The Biggest Macro Risk You Might Be Ignoring

Investing is all about probabilities: all you need to do is assess the chances markets are assigning to different scenarios today and anticipate...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

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