Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We have used the 2007 = 2023 analogy a few times already this year and we continue to find coincidental evidence that looks a lot like the emerging pressures built up in the quarters preceding the financial crisis.</li><li>The outcome of 2024 is still up in the air, but credit indicators do not look pretty ahead of next year when we combine the impulse in China, the US and the Euro area in an aggregate model and judging from the central bank behavior, we see a lot of similarities to 2007 across the BoJ, the Fed and the ECB.</li><li>Let’s briefly explain why in this central bank watch piece! </li></ul>

We have used the 2007 = 2023 analogy a few times already this year and we continue to find coincidental evidence that looks a lot like the emerging pressures built up in the quarters preceding the financial crisis.The outcome of 2024 is still up in the air, but credit indicators do not look pretty ahead of next year when we combine the impulse in China, the US and the Euro area in an aggregate model and judging from the central bank behavior, we see a lot of similarities to 2007 across the BoJ, the Fed and the ECB.Let’s briefly explain why in this central bank watch piece! 

G3 Central Bank Watch: More Fuel to the 2007 = 2023 Analogy

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Discussed risk/reward favored buyers in late-October as supports were being tested (October 24 and 31), then we outlined on 11/7/23 our belief that a significant year-end rally was likely underway.</li>
<li>New market-generated information has continued to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market.  We continue to expect a rally into year-end and beyond</li>
<li>Gold and silver are bullishly inflecting, and we are buying GLD, SLV, and the miners (GDX, GDXJ)</li>
</ul>


Discussed risk/reward favored buyers in late-October as supports were being tested (October 24 and 31), then we outlined on 11/7/23 our belief that a significant year-end rally was likely underway.
New market-generated information has continued to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market.  We continue to expect a rally into year-end and beyond
Gold and silver are bullishly inflecting, and we are buying GLD, SLV, and the miners (GDX, GDXJ)


Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Buying Gold, Silver, Miners $GDX $GDXJ $GLD $SLV

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we as always try to dig down into the latest positioning data and give you an overview of what’s moving narrative currently.</li><li>Sentiment and positioning are still skewed towards hopes of a soft landing, with bets being placed on lower yields, a weaker dollar, booming equities and almost non-existent credit spreads – ironically a prime condition for an upcoming recession (which is still our base case for H1 2024).</li><li>General media and story counts are also all about the soft landing vs recession, with the mentionings of “recession” back at pre-COVID levels, while soft landing counts are on the rise, although pulling a bit back from recent highs.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we as always try to dig down into the latest positioning data and give you an overview of what’s moving narrative currently.Sentiment and positioning are still skewed towards hopes of a soft landing, with bets being placed on lower yields, a weaker dollar, booming equities and almost non-existent credit spreads – ironically a prime condition for an upcoming recession (which is still our base case for H1 2024).General media and story counts are also all about the soft landing vs recession, with the mentionings of “recession” back at pre-COVID levels, while soft landing counts are on the rise, although pulling a bit back from recent highs.

Positioning Watch – All About the Soft Landing Narrative

<ul><li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial.</li><li>The soft landing narrative has seen material tailwinds over the past 6-8 weeks, while the recession narrative is fading fast.</li><li>This is the first prerequisite for an actual recession as a recession never arrives when everyone plans for one.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial.The soft landing narrative has seen material tailwinds over the past 6-8 weeks, while the recession narrative is fading fast.This is the first prerequisite for an actual recession as a recession never arrives when everyone plans for one.

Steno Signals #75 – The 2007/2008 Playbook Is Useful Again

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Volatility Has dropped off a cliff, signaling that investors are unable to see any risk currently. That feels at least a bit complacent. </li>
<li>We take a deep dive to determine which asset class will likely benefit most from the first Fed rate cut and the start of the easing cycle. Spoiler alert! It’s not Equities.</li>
<li>OPEC’s resilience to continue production cuts is being tested. At the same time, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved even further into FRENZY territory.</li>
</ul>


Volatility Has dropped off a cliff, signaling that investors are unable to see any risk currently. That feels at least a bit complacent. 
We take a deep dive to determine which asset class will likely benefit most from the first Fed rate cut and the start of the easing cycle. Spoiler alert! It’s not Equities.
OPEC’s resilience to continue production cuts is being tested. At the same time, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved even further into FRENZY territory.


The Weekly Market Monitor – VIX Hits Multi-Year Low, Investors Can’t See Any Risks!

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

G3 Central Bank Watch: More Fuel to the 2007 = 2023 Analogy

The outcome of 2024 is still up in the air, but credit indicators do not look pretty ahead of next year when we combine the impulse in China, the...

Steno Research

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Buying Gold, Silver, Miners $GDX $GDXJ $GLD $SLV

New market-generated information continues to be risk-on, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market. We still expect...

Vermilion Research

Positioning Watch – All About the Soft Landing Narrative

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we as always try to dig down into the latest positioning data and give you...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #75 – The 2007/2008 Playbook Is Useful Again

The soft landing narrative has seen material tailwinds over the past 6-8 weeks, while the recession narrative is fading fast.

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – VIX Hits Multi-Year Low, Investors Can’t See Any Risks!

The VIX collapsed to the lowest since COVID, which makes investors look complacent, especially with our Fear & Frenzy Sentiment Index still in Frenzy.

Jeroen Blokland

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