Podcast by Bilal Hafeez, Macro Hive

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Podcast by Bilal Hafeez

Macro Hive

We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.

Talking Economics and Markets

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Claudia Sam is a well-known expert in monetary and fiscal policy, with experience advising decision makers at top government institutions</li><li>She is the founder of Stay at Home Macro consulting and has a PhD in economics from the University of Michigan</li><li>Throughout her career, she has experienced major economic crises, such as the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, leading her to focus on the importance of fiscal policy in times of crisis.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Claudia Sam is a well-known expert in monetary and fiscal policy, with experience advising decision makers at top government institutionsShe is the founder of Stay at Home Macro consulting and has a PhD in economics from the University of MichiganThroughout her career, she has experienced major economic crises, such as the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, leading her to focus on the importance of fiscal policy in times of crisis.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Ep. 204: Claudia Sahm on Inflation Risks, Fed Cuts, and Recession

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In spite of last week's hotter-than-expected inflation reports, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed relative to the SPX and QQQ, and ended the week at YTD weekly closing highs.</li>
<li>The fact that small- and mid-caps outperformed during a week with two hot inflation reports is a sign we could see more outperformance in the weeks/months ahead.</li>
<li>Adding to the risk-on theme, the DXY displays a false breakout at $104.60-$104.70. Our bullish outlook that we have had since early November 2023 remains intact. </li>
</ul>


In spite of last week's hotter-than-expected inflation reports, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed relative to the SPX and QQQ, and ended the week at YTD weekly closing highs.
The fact that small- and mid-caps outperformed during a week with two hot inflation reports is a sign we could see more outperformance in the weeks/months ahead.
Adding to the risk-on theme, the DXY displays a false breakout at $104.60-$104.70. Our bullish outlook that we have had since early November 2023 remains intact. 


Small Caps Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Breakout

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Welcome to our weekly portfolio watch, which today will be all about the (potential) upcoming rebound in the cyclical momentum.</li>
<li>As always we share our trade thoughts and ideas and provide you with our current allocation.</li>
<li>Yesterday’s PPI came in hot as we expected (0.6% MoM in core PPI vs 0.1% expected), which serves as an early sign of a reacceleration in inflationary pressures, which have been our base case since the continuation of the tensions in the Red Sea: It looks like the increase in US freight rates has started to impact producer prices.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to our weekly portfolio watch, which today will be all about the (potential) upcoming rebound in the cyclical momentum.
As always we share our trade thoughts and ideas and provide you with our current allocation.
Yesterday’s PPI came in hot as we expected (0.6% MoM in core PPI vs 0.1% expected), which serves as an early sign of a reacceleration in inflationary pressures, which have been our base case since the continuation of the tensions in the Red Sea: It looks like the increase in US freight rates has started to impact producer prices.


Portfolio Watch – Have markets traded the cyclical rebound in advance?

We aggregate key quotes from earnings, The Transcript

The Transcript

We aggregate key quotes from earnings

Aggregate Key Quotes from Earnings

<ul><li>Companies are expecting the Federal Reserve to reduce rates to ease the burden on consumers and boost confidence in markets.</li><li>Inflation is still a concern for many companies, particularly at the high end, but the Fed cannot act until there is substantial data showing a decrease in inflation.</li><li>The lower income consumers are trading down and experiencing financial difficulties, with subprime delinquencies reaching levels similar to 2009, which is concerning for the market. </li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Companies are expecting the Federal Reserve to reduce rates to ease the burden on consumers and boost confidence in markets.Inflation is still a concern for many companies, particularly at the high end, but the Fed cannot act until there is substantial data showing a decrease in inflation.The lower income consumers are trading down and experiencing financial difficulties, with subprime delinquencies reaching levels similar to 2009, which is concerning for the market. This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023, and we remain bullish</li>
<li>The question is whether that will continue to be the case. Concerns are rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have broken above short-term resistance levels on Feb13</li>
<li>Friday's PPI report should provide more clarity as to how concerned we should be about rising inflation</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023, and we remain bullish
The question is whether that will continue to be the case. Concerns are rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have broken above short-term resistance levels on Feb13
Friday's PPI report should provide more clarity as to how concerned we should be about rising inflation


S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Ep. 204: Claudia Sahm on Inflation Risks, Fed Cuts, and Recession

Claudia Sam, an expert in monetary and fiscal policy, forecasting, and recession indicators, has advised top decision makers and founded Stay at...

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Small Caps Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 Breakout

Small Caps $IWM $VXF Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports; Equal-Weighted S&P 500 $RSP Breakout; U.S. Dollar $DXY Failed Breakout at $104.70;...

Vermilion Research

Portfolio Watch – Have markets traded the cyclical rebound in advance?

Welcome to our weekly portfolio watch, which today will be all about the (potential) upcoming rebound in the cyclical momentum. As always we share...

Steno Research

Episode 112: Subprime Signals

Companies are counting on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in order to boost consumer confidence and market trends, while inflation...

The Transcript

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing 20-Day MAs; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Critical 4.35% Resistance

$SPX and Nasdaq 100 $QQQ testing 20-day MAs (support since November); We remain bullish, but can't rule out a pullback to 4800-4850 on SPX; 10-Yr...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)