Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

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Nonfarm payrolls rose 211,000 in April, which was stronger than the median consensus projection,  with private payrolls up 194,000.  Payroll gains were broad-based by sector and 60.2% of private firms added positions in the month.The unemployment rate fell to 4.4% from 4.5% as the participation rate slipped 0.1% point to 62.9% and household employment increased 156,000.  The U6 underemployment rate fell to 8.6% from 8.9% on another sharp decline in part-time workers for economic reasons.Average…

Nonfarm payrolls rose 211,000 in April, which was stronger than the median consensus projection,  with private payrolls up 194,000.  Payroll gains were broad-based by sector and 60.2% of private firms added positions in the month.The unemployment rate fell to 4.4% from 4.5% as the participation rate slipped 0.1% point to 62.9% and household employment increased 156,000.  The U6 underemployment rate fell to 8.6% from 8.9% on another sharp decline in part-time workers for economic reasons.Average…

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 211,000 In April; Unemployment Rate Fell To Prior-Cycle Low

As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 0.75%–0.1% today.  The Fed's policy statement noted “the labor market has continued to strengthen even as growth in economic activity slowed,” however, “The Committee views the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory.”  On the labor market, “Job gains were solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate declined.”  There were no dissents today.…

As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 0.75%–0.1% today.  The Fed's policy statement noted “the labor market has continued to strengthen even as growth in economic activity slowed,” however, “The Committee views the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory.”  On the labor market, “Job gains were solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate declined.”  There were no dissents today.…

Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged—No New Signals on the Policy Outlook

Part 4 of our inflation insights series includes a discussion of the importance of core PCE prices to the Federal Reserve, our finding that Fed Chair Janet Yellen's claim that core PCE inflation is "a better forward-looking predictor of headline inflation" is not supported by the data (Fed researchers have come to the same conclusion as ours), and we provide some thoughts on other measures of underlying U.S. inflation.

Part 4 of our inflation insights series includes a discussion of the importance of core PCE prices to the Federal Reserve, our finding that Fed Chair Janet Yellen's claim that core PCE inflation is "a better forward-looking predictor of headline inflation" is not supported by the data (Fed researchers have come to the same conclusion as ours), and we provide some thoughts on other measures of underlying U.S. inflation.

U.S. Inflation Part 4: How Important Is the Slowing in Core PCE Inflation?

U.S. real GDP rose 0.7% at an annual rate in the first quarter (the increase was below the median consensus forecast projection of 1.0%).  Over the last four quarters, real GDP increased 1.9% versus 2.0% on this basis in the prior quarter.  Real consumer spending rose only 0.3% (as spending on autos plunged 16.1%), residential investment surged 13.7% and real business fixed investment jumped 9.4%—equipment spending was up 9.1% and real nonresidential structures investment soared 22.1%. The…

U.S. real GDP rose 0.7% at an annual rate in the first quarter (the increase was below the median consensus forecast projection of 1.0%).  Over the last four quarters, real GDP increased 1.9% versus 2.0% on this basis in the prior quarter.  Real consumer spending rose only 0.3% (as spending on autos plunged 16.1%), residential investment surged 13.7% and real business fixed investment jumped 9.4%—equipment spending was up 9.1% and real nonresidential structures investment soared 22.1%. The…

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn held a press conference today outlining a broad summary of President Trump's tax plans.  There were a few details that were not in the media reports of previous days.On personal taxes, the proposal reduces the current seven tax brackets to three, but the top marginal rate is lowered to 35% rather than the 33% that was in the campaign proposals.  Rather than being "paid for" by stronger assumed growth, the White…

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn held a press conference today outlining a broad summary of President Trump's tax plans.  There were a few details that were not in the media reports of previous days.On personal taxes, the proposal reduces the current seven tax brackets to three, but the top marginal rate is lowered to 35% rather than the 33% that was in the campaign proposals.  Rather than being "paid for" by stronger assumed growth, the White…

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U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 211,000 In April; Unemployment Rate Fell To Prior-Cycle Low

Nonfarm payrolls rose 211,000 in April, which was stronger than the median consensus projection, with private payrolls up 194,000. Payroll gains...

RDQ Economics

Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged—No New Signals on the Policy Outlook

As was widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left the fed funds rate target range unchanged at 0.75%–0.1% today. The Fed's policy...

RDQ Economics

U.S. Inflation Part 4: How Important Is the Slowing in Core PCE Inflation?

Part 4 of our inflation insights series includes a discussion of the importance of core PCE prices to the Federal Reserve, our finding that Fed...

RDQ Economics

Update on U.S. First-Quarter GDP

U.S. real GDP rose 0.7% at an annual rate in the first quarter (the increase was below the median consensus forecast projection of 1.0%). Over the...

RDQ Economics

Trump's Tax Policy "Guidepost"

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn held a press conference today outlining a broad summary of...

RDQ Economics

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