Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Morning from Europe with low activity across markets due to Easter Friday.</li><li>Our daily coverage returns on Tuesday (including Something for your Espresso dailies).</li><li>The inflation evidence from Europe has been extremely soft this week and it rhymes VERY well with our tactical view of much wider USD-EUR inflation spreads.</li></ul>

Morning from Europe with low activity across markets due to Easter Friday.Our daily coverage returns on Tuesday (including Something for your Espresso dailies).The inflation evidence from Europe has been extremely soft this week and it rhymes VERY well with our tactical view of much wider USD-EUR inflation spreads.

Portfolio Watch: Inflation DIVERGENCE is growing

<ul><li>The preliminary European inflation numbers will be released during this week, while Germany has decided to postpone the release until after Easter.</li><li>We are leaning dovish relative to consensus, but due to VAT increases in Spanish electricity markets, it will not look like an outright home-run for disinflationistas in March either unless markets decide to focus on the TAX-constant HICP rates.</li><li>Spanish HICP (Wednesday) -&gt; Consensus 1.4%, Steno Research 1.26% </li></ul>

The preliminary European inflation numbers will be released during this week, while Germany has decided to postpone the release until after Easter.We are leaning dovish relative to consensus, but due to VAT increases in Spanish electricity markets, it will not look like an outright home-run for disinflationistas in March either unless markets decide to focus on the TAX-constant HICP rates.Spanish HICP (Wednesday) -&gt; Consensus 1.4%, Steno Research 1.26% 

EUR-flation watch: Spain is the dovish hawk

<ul><li>It is always lovely to get back on the road and meet a load of fund managers, and it is nice to see that a few reflation skepticals are still found out there.</li><li>I went to London to meet with a bunch of the big funds in town, hot on the heels of Powell’s reflationary Fed meeting on Wednesday.</li><li>It almost annoyed me how “vanilla” my analysis had to be on the back of it, as the Fed is moving the needle lower and lower and lower on the implied Real Fed Funds rate every meeting currently, no matter the underlying developments in inflation and/or growth.</li></ul>

It is always lovely to get back on the road and meet a load of fund managers, and it is nice to see that a few reflation skepticals are still found out there.I went to London to meet with a bunch of the big funds in town, hot on the heels of Powell’s reflationary Fed meeting on Wednesday.It almost annoyed me how “vanilla” my analysis had to be on the back of it, as the Fed is moving the needle lower and lower and lower on the implied Real Fed Funds rate every meeting currently, no matter the underlying developments in inflation and/or growth.

Steno Signals #92 – The head fake reflation?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the SPX and Nasdaq 100 close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get cautious.</li>
<li>This still hasn't happened (short-term trend remains bullish). If we get 2-3 closes below the 20-dayMAs, next support would be 4983-5050 on SPX, $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24)</li>
<li>If some or all of these gaps remain unfilled, it is a sign that bulls remain in control. We are seeing a rotation into commodity Sectors, we highlight several buys</li>
</ul>


We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the SPX and Nasdaq 100 close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get cautious.
This still hasn't happened (short-term trend remains bullish). If we get 2-3 closes below the 20-dayMAs, next support would be 4983-5050 on SPX, $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24)
If some or all of these gaps remain unfilled, it is a sign that bulls remain in control. We are seeing a rotation into commodity Sectors, we highlight several buys


Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors; SPX/NDX Holding Above Support

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from Sunny Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! Is the business cycle dead?</li><li>It is a fair question to ask after what seems like years of recession chasing once again ending in tears for the macro bears.</li><li>This sublime graphic created by the great Lee Coppock is exceptionally telling.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from Sunny Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! Is the business cycle dead?It is a fair question to ask after what seems like years of recession chasing once again ending in tears for the macro bears.This sublime graphic created by the great Lee Coppock is exceptionally telling.

Steno Signals #91 – No more recessions ever!?

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Portfolio Watch: Inflation DIVERGENCE is growing

Morning from Europe with low activity across markets due to Easter Friday. Our daily coverage returns on Tuesday (including Something for your...

Steno Research

EUR-flation watch: Spain is the dovish hawk

The preliminary European inflation numbers will be released during this week, while Germany has decided to postpone the release until after...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #92 – The head fake reflation?

It is always lovely to get back on the road and meet a load of fund managers, and it is nice to see that a few reflation skepticals are still found...

Steno Research

Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors; SPX/NDX Holding Above Support

Upgrading Materials $XLB to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors $XLE. $SPX and $QQQ holding above gap supports at 4983-5050 and $425...

Vermilion Research

Steno Signals #91 – No more recessions ever!?

Happy Sunday from Sunny Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! Is the business cycle dead? It is a fair question to ask after what...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)