EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Yemen has once again hit the headlines as structural issues lead to political uncertainty and tumult. The situation may not be as bad as the headlines are likely to make it&nbsp;out however and we believe it will be contained.

Yemen has once again hit the headlines as structural issues lead to political uncertainty and tumult. The situation may not be as bad as the headlines are likely to make it&nbsp;out however and we believe it will be contained.

There is a high probability of a nuclear deal being agreed between the P5 + 1 nations and Iran next Friday, 20th March. This may be the precursor for energy stocks to recouple to downside and for spending cuts to spread from capex to dividends for majors.

There is a high probability of a nuclear deal being agreed between the P5 + 1 nations and Iran next Friday, 20th March. This may be the precursor for energy stocks to recouple to downside and for spending cuts to spread from capex to dividends for majors.

Equity Bottom-Up

United States Oil Fund LP / Equity Bottom-Up

As King Abdullah passes, new King Salman will have to spend to secure his throne and has complete freedom to do as he wishes, including changing oil policy. The oil market structure is currently significantly oversold and we could easily see a short squeeze, although medium-term weakness may be likely and the long-term prognosis bullish.

As King Abdullah passes, new King Salman will have to spend to secure his throne and has complete freedom to do as he wishes, including changing oil policy. The oil market structure is currently significantly oversold and we could easily see a short squeeze, although medium-term weakness may be likely and the long-term prognosis bullish.

United States

United States Oil Fund LP is a Delaware limited partnership incorporated in the USA. The Fund's objective is to have changes in percentage terms of its unit's net asset value reflect the changes of the price of WTI Crude Oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by changes in percentage terms of the price of the WTI Crude Oil futures contract on the NYMEX. The fund is a commodity pool.

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United States Oil Fund LP (USO US)

Yemen - Dancing on the heads of snakes

Yemen has once again hit the headlines as structural issues lead to political uncertainty and tumult. The situation may not be as bad as the...

Emad Mostaque

Will an Iran deal crack oil?

There is a high probability of a nuclear deal being agreed between the P5 + 1 nations and Iran next Friday, 20th March. This may be the precursor...

Emad Mostaque

Why Saudi Succession Matters

As King Abdullah passes, new King Salman will have to spend to secure his throne and has complete freedom to do as he wishes, including changing...

Emad Mostaque

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