External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Volume weakness to continue, revenue to grow by 15/10% on YoY/three-year CAGR (weak ex-ITC): Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/15% on YoY/three-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY23 (vs 12/7% in Q2FY22 and 24/11% in Q1FY23)</li><li>ITC’s strong reported growth will drive the aggregate growth for Q2FY23, ex-ITC we expect overall weakness in volume</li><li>Demand trends in our FMCG universe for Q2FY23 will be similar to the trends seen in the previous two quarters where demand was impacted by the retail inflation (particular in rural).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Volume weakness to continue, revenue to grow by 15/10% on YoY/three-year CAGR (weak ex-ITC): Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/15% on YoY/three-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY23 (vs 12/7% in Q2FY22 and 24/11% in Q1FY23)ITC’s strong reported growth will drive the aggregate growth for Q2FY23, ex-ITC we expect overall weakness in volumeDemand trends in our FMCG universe for Q2FY23 will be similar to the trends seen in the previous two quarters where demand was impacted by the retail inflation (particular in rural).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q2FY23 Results Preview): Growth and margin to remain under pressure

<ul><li>Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 9/4% on three-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/4% on three-year CAGR in revenue/EBITDA in Q1FY23 (vs 5/3% in Q1FY22 and 8/6% in Q4FY22)</li><li>Demand continued to be weak due to the elevated commodity pressure impacting affordability (particular in rural)</li><li>Thereby, the industry is witnessing a similar volume decline in Q1FY23 as seen in Q4FY22.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 9/4% on three-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/4% on three-year CAGR in revenue/EBITDA in Q1FY23 (vs 5/3% in Q1FY22 and 8/6% in Q4FY22)Demand continued to be weak due to the elevated commodity pressure impacting affordability (particular in rural)Thereby, the industry is witnessing a similar volume decline in Q1FY23 as seen in Q4FY22.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev - Sustaining Pressure on Demand and Margin

<ul><li>Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 9/4% on three-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/4% on three-year CAGR in revenue/EBITDA in Q1FY23 (vs. 5/3% in Q1FY22 and 8/6% in Q4FY22).</li><li>Gross margin YoY pressures continue in Q1FY23: Commodity pressure continued into Q1FY23, impacting the margin (even sequentially).</li><li>Three-year CAGR: Our coverage universe is expected to deliver 9/4% three- year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs in Q1.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Aggregate revenue/EBITDA to grow by 9/4% on three-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 9/4% on three-year CAGR in revenue/EBITDA in Q1FY23 (vs. 5/3% in Q1FY22 and 8/6% in Q4FY22).Gross margin YoY pressures continue in Q1FY23: Commodity pressure continued into Q1FY23, impacting the margin (even sequentially).Three-year CAGR: Our coverage universe is expected to deliver 9/4% three- year revenue/EBITDA CAGRs in Q1.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev -  Sustaining Pressure on Demand and Margin

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

A Relationship Beyond Broking

Nirmal Bang, one of the leading stock broking companies in India, caters to retail and institutional clients by offering them a range of financial products and services, including equities, derivatives, commodities, currency derivatives, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance, depository services and PMS.

Nirmal Bang is drawn from a diversity of professional backgrounds, and blend of experience, skill and dedication is shared with its clients. Nirmal Bang emphasizes adequate, thorough research local and world-wide developments, balancing these with the astute discovery of intrinsic values, synergies and growth. The aim is simply to help the investors to maximize their returns.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>4QFY22 headline performance: Standalone net sales grew by 9.5% YoY to Rs24.4bn (v/s est. Rs25bn).</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>FY22 performance: Revenue and EBITDA grew by 18.9% (led by ~12% volume growth) and &gt;50%, respectively.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Other highlights: (1) ENA and Glass are ~2/3rd of the company’s raw material basket and both the commodities are under inflationary pressure, witnessing inflation in double digits. (2) Recently received price increases from Assam, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. (3) UNSP maintained its guidance to deliver mid to high teen operating margin.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

4QFY22 headline performance: Standalone net sales grew by 9.5% YoY to Rs24.4bn (v/s est. Rs25bn).FY22 performance: Revenue and EBITDA grew by 18.9% (led by ~12% volume growth) and &gt;50%, respectively.Other highlights: (1) ENA and Glass are ~2/3rd of the company’s raw material basket and both the commodities are under inflationary pressure, witnessing inflation in double digits. (2) Recently received price increases from Assam, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. (3) UNSP maintained its guidance to deliver mid to high teen operating margin.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United Spirits - Robust Operating Performance; Strategic Review a Positive for Medium-Term

<div><div><div><ul><li>P&amp;A continues its growth momentum: Net revenue was up by 9% YoY (+12% in Q4FY21 and +16% in Q3FY22) vs. HSIE’s 13%.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>Total volume was up by 5% to 20.7mn cases (+8% in Q4FY21, +4% in Q3FY22) vs. HSIE 20.6mn cases. P&amp;A revenue up by 15% YoY (+26% in Q4FY21, +20% in Q3FY22, HSIE 17%).</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>P&amp;A realisation was up 6% YoY (+5% in Q4FY21 and +11% in Q3FY22) to INR 1,617/case.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

P&amp;A continues its growth momentum: Net revenue was up by 9% YoY (+12% in Q4FY21 and +16% in Q3FY22) vs. HSIE’s 13%.Total volume was up by 5% to 20.7mn cases (+8% in Q4FY21, +4% in Q3FY22) vs. HSIE 20.6mn cases. P&amp;A revenue up by 15% YoY (+26% in Q4FY21, +20% in Q3FY22, HSIE 17%).P&amp;A realisation was up 6% YoY (+5% in Q4FY21 and +11% in Q3FY22) to INR 1,617/case.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United Spirits (4QFY22): Uptrend Story Continues; Uninspiring Brand Sale. Maintain ADD

India

United Spirits Ltd. manufactures and distributes alcoholic beverages. The Company provides a variety of alcohols and spirits, including whiskey, brandy, and rum. United Spirits also manufactures indian-made foreign liquor brands. United Spirits serves customers worldwide.

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United Spirits (UNSP IN)

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q2FY23 Results Preview): Growth and margin to remain under pressure

Demand trends in our FMCG universe for Q2FY23 will be similar to the trends seen in the previous two quarters where demand was impacted by the...

HDFC Securities

FMCG & Alco Bev - Sustaining Pressure on Demand and Margin

Demand continued to be weak due to the elevated commodity pressure impacting affordability (particular in rural). Thereby, the industry is...

HDFC Securities

FMCG & Alco Bev - Sustaining Pressure on Demand and Margin

Gross margin YoY pressures continue in Q1FY23: Commodity pressure continued into Q1FY23, impacting the margin (even sequentially).

HDFC Securities

United Spirits - Robust Operating Performance; Strategic Review a Positive for Medium-Term

United Spirits’ (UNSP) delivered a decent 4QFY22 operating performance, but the focus was on the outcome of the strategic review of select Popular...

Nirmal Bang

United Spirits (4QFY22): Uptrend Story Continues; Uninspiring Brand Sale. Maintain ADD

UNSP's net revenue was slightly below our estimate at 9.5% YoY (HSIE 13%), with three-year CAGR at 3%. P&A revenue sustained a healthy trend and...

HDFC Securities

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