Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Today’s report provides a top-down synopsis of the technical condition of emerging markets across the globe, and includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.</p>

Today’s report provides a top-down synopsis of the technical condition of emerging markets across the globe, and includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

Emerging Markets: Technical Strategy & Reccommendations

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>Global Emerging Market fund managers are, on average, underweight technology stocks.  In fact, though tech positioning among EM managers is at its highest in absolute terms, it is at its lowest in relative terms when measured against the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.  In this report, we analyse the level to which this record tech underweight has affected average fund performance this year, whilst also highlighting the sectors that have contributed positively.  On a stock level, underweights in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1">Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/787" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1">Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA US)</a> have caused the most pain, yet this isn't the case for all managers.  Baillie Gifford and Hermes stand out as early allocators of tech, long before it became the dominant force it is today.</p>

Global Emerging Market fund managers are, on average, underweight technology stocks.  In fact, though tech positioning among EM managers is at its highest in absolute terms, it is at its lowest in relative terms when measured against the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.  In this report, we analyse the level to which this record tech underweight has affected average fund performance this year, whilst also highlighting the sectors that have contributed positively.  On a stock level, underweights in Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA US) have caused the most pain, yet this isn't the case for all managers.  Baillie Gifford and Hermes stand out as early allocators of tech, long before it became the dominant force it is today.

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<h2>SMIC guides likely 4Q17 losses?</h2><p>After an inline 3Q17 sales/earning numbers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14231" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1">Semiconductor Manufacturing (981 HK)</a> guides 4Q17 sales growth of 1-3% q/q and -5% to -3% y/y (vs. Bloomberg consensus' 7% q/q and 2% y/y) together with 5ppts miss on the gross margin and 12ppts miss on operating margin guidance. We thus expect coverage analysts to cut their 4Q17 estimates sharply to a loss level from a US$31mn gain forecast at the Bloomberg now. We attribute the likely 4Q17 losses to utilization falling…</p>

SMIC guides likely 4Q17 losses?After an inline 3Q17 sales/earning numbers, Semiconductor Manufacturing (981 HK) guides 4Q17 sales growth of 1-3% q/q and -5% to -3% y/y (vs. Bloomberg consensus' 7% q/q and 2% y/y) together with 5ppts miss on the gross margin and 12ppts miss on operating margin guidance. We thus expect coverage analysts to cut their 4Q17 estimates sharply to a loss level from a US$31mn gain forecast at the Bloomberg now. We attribute the likely 4Q17 losses to utilization falling…

SMIC Guides Likely 4Q17 Losses? No Wonder Dr. Liang Is Needed

Event-Driven

<h2><strong>Summary</strong></h2><p><em>We believe the merger news is somehow reliable as Broadcom CEO Hock Tan said at TSMC's 30th Anniversary Celebration Forum on October 23 that only strong IP portfolio and financial position can defend its market share against cloud vendors which are trying to take away semiconductor design value. Therefore, by buying Qualcomm/NXP, Broadcom can strengthen its IP portfolio into 3G/4G/5G baseband/modem, WiFi, Bluetooth, 3D sensing, NFC, and automotive semiconductor IP and enhance its</em>…</p>

SummaryWe believe the merger news is somehow reliable as Broadcom CEO Hock Tan said at TSMC's 30th Anniversary Celebration Forum on October 23 that only strong IP portfolio and financial position can defend its market share against cloud vendors which are trying to take away semiconductor design value. Therefore, by buying Qualcomm/NXP, Broadcom can strengthen its IP portfolio into 3G/4G/5G baseband/modem, WiFi, Bluetooth, 3D sensing, NFC, and automotive semiconductor IP and enhance its…

Broadcom Is Buying Qualcomm; Two Major Challenges Ahead to Close the Deal

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Memory, both DRAM and NAND, are currently in a super-cycle characterized by tight supply and rising prices. Commentators are divided as to whether this cycle is different from previous cycles and consequently what the future holds for supply, demand and pricing. Furthermore, there are growing concerns that China’s semiconductor ambitions could soon result in the market being flooded with high volumes of low-cost DRAM. In this Insight, we examine the history of DRAM from inception to the present day, in particular looking at how market leadership which began in the US, transitioned first to Japan and then to Korea, with a largely failed attempt by Taiwan in between. We ask whether the conditions that allowed these leadership transitions to occur in the past could once again play out in favour of China’s determination to grow its indigenous semiconductor industry.</p><p><br><br></p>

Memory, both DRAM and NAND, are currently in a super-cycle characterized by tight supply and rising prices. Commentators are divided as to whether this cycle is different from previous cycles and consequently what the future holds for supply, demand and pricing. Furthermore, there are growing concerns that China’s semiconductor ambitions could soon result in the market being flooded with high volumes of low-cost DRAM. In this Insight, we examine the history of DRAM from inception to the present day, in particular looking at how market leadership which began in the US, transitioned first to Japan and then to Korea, with a largely failed attempt by Taiwan in between. We ask whether the conditions that allowed these leadership transitions to occur in the past could once again play out in favour of China’s determination to grow its indigenous semiconductor industry.  

Learnings From The History Of Memory Part 1 - China's DRAM Dreams

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectronics Corp (2303 TT)

Emerging Markets: Technical Strategy & Reccommendations

Today’s report provides a top-down synopsis of the technical condition of emerging markets across the globe, and includes a wide variety of...

Vermilion Research

EM Tech: The Pain Trade Of 2017

Global Emerging Market fund managers are, on average, underweight technology stocks. In fact, though tech positioning among EM managers is at its...

Steven Holden

SMIC Guides Likely 4Q17 Losses? No Wonder Dr. Liang Is Needed

SMIC guides likely 4Q17 losses?After an inline 3Q17 sales/earning numbers, Semiconductor Manufacturing (981 HK) guides 4Q17 sales growth of 1-3%...

Andrew Lu

Broadcom Is Buying Qualcomm; Two Major Challenges Ahead to Close the Deal

SummaryWe believe the merger news is somehow reliable as Broadcom CEO Hock Tan said at TSMC's 30th Anniversary Celebration Forum on October 23 that...

Andrew Lu

Learnings From The History Of Memory Part 1 - China's DRAM Dreams

Memory, both DRAM and NAND, are currently in a super-cycle characterized by tight supply and rising prices. Commentators are divided as to whether...

William Keating

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