Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The results for 1Q24F should remain unchanged, even though we anticipate a slight upside.  </li>
<li>UMC's outlook for 2Q24F is deteriorating, with a likely decline 5-10% QoQ.</li>
<li>The demand from UMC's clients is not improving in 2Q24F.</li>
</ul>


The results for 1Q24F should remain unchanged, even though we anticipate a slight upside.  
UMC's outlook for 2Q24F is deteriorating, with a likely decline 5-10% QoQ.
The demand from UMC's clients is not improving in 2Q24F.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Current 2Q24F Outlook Is Downside 5-10% QoQ.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>UMC's latest results indicate a mild recovery for consumer, communications, and computing industries. UMC's capacity utilization to continue improving but industry inventory correction could last until end-2024E.</li>
<li>UMC maintained 2024E capex guidance however it's increasingly clear UMC can't keep up the capex arms race alone. Hence we see UMC &amp; Intel becoming closer and closer partners.</li>
<li>We continue to view UMC as a long-term accumulate, and rate the stock as Structural Long, this however requires a longer than usual multi-year holding period.</li>
</ul>


UMC's latest results indicate a mild recovery for consumer, communications, and computing industries. UMC's capacity utilization to continue improving but industry inventory correction could last until end-2024E.
UMC maintained 2024E capex guidance however it's increasingly clear UMC can't keep up the capex arms race alone. Hence we see UMC &amp; Intel becoming closer and closer partners.
We continue to view UMC as a long-term accumulate, and rate the stock as Structural Long, this however requires a longer than usual multi-year holding period.


UMC Signals Non-AI Industry Inventory Correction Through 2024E; Why Intel Is Increasingly Important

<ul>
<li>3Q24 guidance: Shipment up mid-single digits QoQ; ASP: Remains firm in USD; GM: around mid-30%. (Consensuses were high single digits.)</li>
<li>Has provided a 22nm HV solution for high-end OLED DDI to high-end SP, and expects to reach high-volume production in 2025.  </li>
<li>Cooperation with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> is progressing well, targeting MP for 14nm in 2027.</li>
</ul>


3Q24 guidance: Shipment up mid-single digits QoQ; ASP: Remains firm in USD; GM: around mid-30%. (Consensuses were high single digits.)
Has provided a 22nm HV solution for high-end OLED DDI to high-end SP, and expects to reach high-volume production in 2025.  
Cooperation with Intel Corp (INTC US) is progressing well, targeting MP for 14nm in 2027.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 3Q24 Sales Were Slightly Below Consensuses

<ul>
<li>UMC spoke at an investment bank's recent conference, providing additional color on guidance and its collaboration with Intel for 12nm chip production.</li>
<li>UMC comments imply the key synergies between the two companies, whereby each can solve the other's key problem,</li>
<li>While UMC most likely needs to remain a "Taiwanese company" in terms of optics given its history, Intel's synergies with UMC establishes acquisition-value support for UMC shares in our view.</li>
</ul>


UMC spoke at an investment bank's recent conference, providing additional color on guidance and its collaboration with Intel for 12nm chip production.
UMC comments imply the key synergies between the two companies, whereby each can solve the other's key problem,
While UMC most likely needs to remain a "Taiwanese company" in terms of optics given its history, Intel's synergies with UMC establishes acquisition-value support for UMC shares in our view.


United Microelectronics Is Becoming a Great Long-Term Acquisition Target for Intel

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>UMC's Q423 results in line with expectations. Q124 guidance, down 2-3% QoQ, demonstrates ongoing headwinds for foundry</li>
<li>Intel, UMC foundry partnership helps the latter overcome their 14nm issues while giving them bargain basement access to US manufacturing capacity </li>
<li>If Intel could have developed and deployed the proposed 12nm specialty process on their own, they would have....</li>
</ul>


UMC's Q423 results in line with expectations. Q124 guidance, down 2-3% QoQ, demonstrates ongoing headwinds for foundry
Intel, UMC foundry partnership helps the latter overcome their 14nm issues while giving them bargain basement access to US manufacturing capacity 
If Intel could have developed and deployed the proposed 12nm specialty process on their own, they would have....


Intel's UMC Partnership Is A Big Deal. For UMC.

Taiwan

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

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United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Current 2Q24F Outlook Is Downside 5-10% QoQ.

UMC's 1Q24F results expected to hold steady, while 2Q24F outlook shows declining demand and potential 5-10% decrease. The demand from UMC's...

Patrick Liao

UMC Signals Non-AI Industry Inventory Correction Through 2024E; Why Intel Is Increasingly Important

UMC sees mild industry end demand improvement, but inventory correction may last until end-2024E. UMC and Intel's partnership will deepen over...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 3Q24 Sales Were Slightly Below Consensuses

Overall, sales are lower than consensuses in 3Q24. UMC plans to reach high-volume production for 22nm HV solution by 2025 and is progressing well...

Patrick Liao

United Microelectronics Is Becoming a Great Long-Term Acquisition Target for Intel

UMC discussed collaboration with Intel at conference Monday, highlighting synergies and potential acquisition-value support for UMC shares. Why...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel's UMC Partnership Is A Big Deal. For UMC.

Intel deal helps UMC overcome their FinFET issues while giving them access to valuable US manufacturing capacity. If Intel could have developed the...

William Keating

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UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Current 2Q24F Outlook Is Downside 5-10% QoQ.

​UMC's 1Q24F results expected to hold steady, while 2Q24F outlook shows declining demand and potential 5-10% decrease. The demand from UMC's...

Patrick Liao

UMC Signals Non-AI Industry Inventory Correction Through 2024E; Why Intel Is Increasingly Important

​UMC sees mild industry end demand improvement, but inventory correction may last until end-2024E. UMC and Intel's partnership will deepen over...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 3Q24 Sales Were Slightly Below Consensuses

Overall, sales are lower than consensuses in 3Q24. UMC plans to reach high-volume production for 22nm HV solution by 2025 and is progressing well...

Patrick Liao

United Microelectronics Is Becoming a Great Long-Term Acquisition Target for Intel

​UMC discussed collaboration with Intel at conference Monday, highlighting synergies and potential acquisition-value support for UMC shares. Why...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel's UMC Partnership Is A Big Deal. For UMC.

Intel deal helps UMC overcome their FinFET issues while giving them access to valuable US manufacturing capacity. If Intel could have developed the...

William Keating

UMC's 1Q24F results expected to hold steady, while 2Q24F outlook shows declining demand and potential 5-10% decrease. The demand from UMC's...

UMC sees mild industry end demand improvement, but inventory correction may last until end-2024E. UMC and Intel's partnership will deepen over...

UMC discussed collaboration with Intel at conference Monday, highlighting synergies and potential acquisition-value support for UMC shares. Why...