Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STX Europe 600 and EUROSTX Indices for the June 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>I currently expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-suisse-group-ag-f4b24f0c-c294-40b3-b491-759f0cb277e9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27915:1" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse (CSGN SW)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/al-noor-hospitals-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21813:1" rel="noopener">Mediclinic International (MDC LN)</a> to be deleted in the next few trading days</li>
<li>Separately, there could be five ADDs and DELs during the regular review in June 2023.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STX Europe 600 and EUROSTX Indices for the June 2023 Rebalance.
I currently expect Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) and Mediclinic International (MDC LN) to be deleted in the next few trading days
Separately, there could be five ADDs and DELs during the regular review in June 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 23: Credit Suisse Deletion Imminent; Multiple Changes in June

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's estimates for the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.</li>
<li>As things stand, there will not be any ADDs or DELs from the DAX index or the SDAX index.</li>
<li>There could be two ADDs/DELs for the MDAX index in the June 2023 rebalance.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's estimates for the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.
As things stand, there will not be any ADDs or DELs from the DAX index or the SDAX index.
There could be two ADDs/DELs for the MDAX index in the June 2023 rebalance.


Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Jun 23: Two Changes for the MDAX Index

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STX Europe 600 and EUROSTX Indices for the March 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>There is roughly one more month left to the base date. At present, I see around 3 ADDs/DELs in the June 2023 review.</li>
<li>Separately, STX Europe 600 members <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-suisse-group-ag-f4b24f0c-c294-40b3-b491-759f0cb277e9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27915:1" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse (CSGN SW)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vantage-towers-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35602:1" rel="noopener">Vantage Towers (VTWR GR)</a> could possibly get deleted in the next few months triggering intra-review index changes.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STX Europe 600 and EUROSTX Indices for the March 2023 Rebalance.
There is roughly one more month left to the base date. At present, I see around 3 ADDs/DELs in the June 2023 review.
Separately, STX Europe 600 members Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) and Vantage Towers (VTWR GR) could possibly get deleted in the next few months triggering intra-review index changes.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 23: Three ADDs/DELs Likely

<ul>
<li>The index changes for the STOXX Europe Indices for the June 2022 Rebalance were announced yesterday. </li>
<li>There will be 11 Adds and 11 Deletes for the STOXX Europe 600 Index. Some of these changes will also be reflected in the EURO STOXX Index.</li>
<li>Below is a closer look at the Inclusion Parameters and price performance of the names involved in this Rebalance Event.</li>
</ul>


The index changes for the STOXX Europe Indices for the June 2022 Rebalance were announced yesterday. 
There will be 11 Adds and 11 Deletes for the STOXX Europe 600 Index. Some of these changes will also be reflected in the EURO STOXX Index.
Below is a closer look at the Inclusion Parameters and price performance of the names involved in this Rebalance Event.


STOXX Europe June 2022 Rebal: Focus on Wacker Chemie, Telefonica Deutschland, CD Projekt, and Nokian

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

On 21 December, Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Inc. offered to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tele-columbus-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21727:1" rel="noopener">Tele Columbus Ag (TC1 GR)</a> from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-internet-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21735:1" rel="noopener">United Internet Ag (UTDI GR)</a> United Internet Investments Holding AG &amp; Co. KG, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rocket-internet-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20226:1" rel="noopener">Rocket Internet Se (RKET GR)</a>, Union Investment Privatfonds GmbH, 3d investors, and others for approximately €380 mn.
<div>
The deal will also strengthen the balance sheet of Tele Columbus.
<ul>
<li>Morgan Stanley is also backing a €475 million rights issue, and will make available a further €75 million in equity after completion to back the firm's fiber strategy.</li>
<li>Tele Columbus said the deal would significantly reduce its net debt, and thereby bring a “better risk assessment” for the remaining bonds and loans.</li>
<li>If the takeover offer is successful, United Internet will contribute its stake in Tele Columbus of around 29.9%. In return, United Internet will receive a minority shareholding in Kublai GmbH.</li>
</ul>
The offered consideration is €3.25 per share in cash.
<ul>
<li>For an implied equity value of €380.58 mn, and an implied EV of 1,925.28 mn (€1,544 mn net debt assumed).</li>
<li>The offer represents 4.1x EV/Fwd Revenue vs. 3.9x for the median of comparable companies and 8.5x EV/Fwd EBITDA vs. 7x for the median of comparable companies.</li>
<li>On this basis, the offer price seems fair. There's business plan execution risk, further down the road.</li>
</ul>
With commitments equivalent to 43.26% from the main shareholders, the offer looks almost certain to succeed.
<ul>
<li>Tele Columbus closed on 22 December at €3.22, a gross spread of 1%, equivalent to 2%-3% annual, depending on the closing.</li>
<li>Although not terribly exciting, it looks a fairly safe trade. Some patience may be needed to build a position.</li>
</ul>
Recommendation is LONG Tele Columbus.
</div>

On 21 December, Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Inc. offered to acquire Tele Columbus Ag (TC1 GR) from United Internet Ag (UTDI GR) United Internet Investments Holding AG &amp; Co. KG, Rocket Internet Se (RKET GR), Union Investment Privatfonds GmbH, 3d investors, and others for approximately €380 mn.

The deal will also strengthen the balance sheet of Tele Columbus.

Morgan Stanley is also backing a €475 million rights issue, and will make available a further €75 million in equity after completion to back the firm's fiber strategy.
Tele Columbus said the deal would significantly reduce its net debt, and thereby bring a “better risk assessment” for the remaining bonds and loans.
If the takeover offer is successful, United Internet will contribute its stake in Tele Columbus of around 29.9%. In return, United Internet will receive a minority shareholding in Kublai GmbH.

The offered consideration is €3.25 per share in cash.

For an implied equity value of €380.58 mn, and an implied EV of 1,925.28 mn (€1,544 mn net debt assumed).
The offer represents 4.1x EV/Fwd Revenue vs. 3.9x for the median of comparable companies and 8.5x EV/Fwd EBITDA vs. 7x for the median of comparable companies.
On this basis, the offer price seems fair. There's business plan execution risk, further down the road.

With commitments equivalent to 43.26% from the main shareholders, the offer looks almost certain to succeed.

Tele Columbus closed on 22 December at €3.22, a gross spread of 1%, equivalent to 2%-3% annual, depending on the closing.
Although not terribly exciting, it looks a fairly safe trade. Some patience may be needed to build a position.

Recommendation is LONG Tele Columbus.


Tele Columbus AG - Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Agreed Bid

Germany

United Internet AG operates as an internet services company. The Company provides landline and mobile internet access products, as well as cloud applications at data centers with fixed monthly fees and volume-based charges. United Internet serves consumers and business clients worldwide.

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United Internet (UTDI GR)

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 23: Credit Suisse Deletion Imminent; Multiple Changes in June

The rankings for the June 2023 review will be based on float market caps as at the close of trading on 31st May 2023. The Top 5 Potential ADDs...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Jun 23: Two Changes for the MDAX Index

There are seven days left in the reference period. The index changes will be confirmed after the close on 5th June 2023 and the inclusions...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 23: Three ADDs/DELs Likely

The top 5 Potential ADDs have strong positive momentum and the top 5 potential DELs have strong negative momentum. This could continue over the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

STOXX Europe June 2022 Rebal: Focus on Wacker Chemie, Telefonica Deutschland, CD Projekt, and Nokian

STOXX Europe June 2022 Index changes have been confirmed. The estimated volume impacts seem low but historical performance is promising and paying...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Tele Columbus AG - Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Agreed Bid

With commitments of 43.26%, the offer is almost certain to succeed. TC1 closed at a gross spread of 1% (2%-3% annual depending on the closing). It...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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