IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Ahead of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>’s vote on 27 April, the gross spread to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-xintai-natural-gas-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27036:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)</a>’s HK$1.85 offer sits uncomfortably high at 13.5%. </li>
<li>The key risk remains that minorities vote down the scheme. Retail forums are active with mixed views on the offer. Peers have also modestly re-rated, which helps the NO camp. </li>
<li>At the last close, the risk-reward profile is unfavourable as the downside to a scheme fail (-16.0%) is greater than the upside to a scheme pass (+13.5%).  </li>
</ul>


Ahead of Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)’s vote on 27 April, the gross spread to Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)’s HK$1.85 offer sits uncomfortably high at 13.5%. 
The key risk remains that minorities vote down the scheme. Retail forums are active with mixed views on the offer. Peers have also modestly re-rated, which helps the NO camp. 
At the last close, the risk-reward profile is unfavourable as the downside to a scheme fail (-16.0%) is greater than the upside to a scheme pass (+13.5%).  


AAG Energy (2686 HK): Nervousness Ahead of the 27 April Vote

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a> scheme document is out with the court meeting scheduled for 27 April. The IFA considers the HK$1.85 offer to be fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>The IFA’s conclusion is dubious as the contents of the report could easily have come to the opposite conclusion. The quick despatch of the scheme document is worrying. </li>
<li>The weak IFA report will further annoy minorities and push more towards the NO camp. The vote is on a knife edge which is reflected in the current 13.5% spread. </li>
</ul>



Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK) scheme document is out with the court meeting scheduled for 27 April. The IFA considers the HK$1.85 offer to be fair and reasonable.
The IFA’s conclusion is dubious as the contents of the report could easily have come to the opposite conclusion. The quick despatch of the scheme document is worrying. 
The weak IFA report will further annoy minorities and push more towards the NO camp. The vote is on a knife edge which is reflected in the current 13.5% spread. 


AAG Energy (2686 HK): Rushed Scheme Document Points to a Vote on a Knife Edge

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>After one month from the March batch of Hong Kong Connect inclusion, we provide an analysis on the stock inclusion for 19 stocks. </li>
<li>We analysed the inclusion by performance post announcement, performance post inclusion, inflows and analyst coverage.</li>
<li>We observed outperformance post the HSCI announcement but not the actual inclusion despite the fact that southbound inflows has a significant impact on the trading volume. </li>
</ul>


After one month from the March batch of Hong Kong Connect inclusion, we provide an analysis on the stock inclusion for 19 stocks. 
We analysed the inclusion by performance post announcement, performance post inclusion, inflows and analyst coverage.
We observed outperformance post the HSCI announcement but not the actual inclusion despite the fact that southbound inflows has a significant impact on the trading volume. 


HK Connect: March '22 Inclusion Post-Event Analysis

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng announced the results of the March rebalance post market close Friday. Two adds for the HSI, one set of changes for HSCEI, three sets for HSTECH.</li>
<li>An ad hoc rebalance was announced for the KOSDAQ150 following Osstem being designated an 'Administrative Issue'. In IPO world, we have LIC in India and SBI Sumishin NetBank coming up.</li>
<li>Friday was the review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the ASX200 Index. The ATO has provided Aventus with the tax ruling and that creates a timing issue.</li>
</ul>


Hang Seng announced the results of the March rebalance post market close Friday. Two adds for the HSI, one set of changes for HSCEI, three sets for HSTECH.
An ad hoc rebalance was announced for the KOSDAQ150 following Osstem being designated an 'Administrative Issue'. In IPO world, we have LIC in India and SBI Sumishin NetBank coming up.
Friday was the review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the ASX200 Index. The ATO has provided Aventus with the tax ruling and that creates a timing issue.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, S&P/ASX, SET50, LIC, SBI Sumishin, Crown

Orient Overseas International / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 29 inclusions and 12 deletions for the HSCI at the March rebalance. 26 of the inclusions will be added to Connect while all deletes will leave Stock Connect.</li>
<li>Some of the Stock Connect deletions have a lot of mainland holdings and there could unwinding of some of the positions ahead of becoming sell-only on the link.</li>
<li>Orient Overseas International, United Energy, Cloud Village and Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited could also move higher over the next couple of weeks before the stocks enter Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>


There are 29 inclusions and 12 deletions for the HSCI at the March rebalance. 26 of the inclusions will be added to Connect while all deletes will leave Stock Connect.
Some of the Stock Connect deletions have a lot of mainland holdings and there could unwinding of some of the positions ahead of becoming sell-only on the link.
Orient Overseas International, United Energy, Cloud Village and Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited could also move higher over the next couple of weeks before the stocks enter Stock Connect.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 29 Adds, 12 Deletes & Changes to Stock Connect

Hong Kong

United Energy Group, Ltd. is engaged in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas. The Company owns and operates a producing oilfield Liaohe Province of the P.R. of China and owns an interest in an exploration field in Madura PSC, Java, Indonesia.  UEG mainly engages in the upstream oil and natural gas business.

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United Energy (467 HK)

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Nervousness Ahead of the 27 April Vote

The vote remains on a knife edge. At the last close, the risk-reward profile is unfavourable as the downside to a scheme fail (-16.0%) is greater...

Arun George

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Rushed Scheme Document Points to a Vote on a Knife Edge

The quick despatch of the scheme document suggests that the offeror is worried. The vote is on a knife edge. While the deal-break downside is...

Arun George

HK Connect: March '22 Inclusion Post-Event Analysis

We provide post-event analysis for the March 7th stock inclusion. We analyzed performance for key milestones dates, impact on trading volume and...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, S&P/ASX, SET50, LIC, SBI Sumishin, Crown

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance: 29 Adds, 12 Deletes & Changes to Stock Connect

There are 29 adds & 12 deletes for the HSCI at the March rebal. 26 of the inclusions will join Southbound Stock Connect while all the deletes will...

Brian Freitas

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