Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The risk for US small banks is clear with the major charge taken by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-york-community-bancorp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1193:1" rel="noopener">New York Community Bank (NYCB US)</a> for its CRE exposure</li>
<li>Small banks in the US, those outside the largest 25 by assets, have 45% of their loans in CRE which equates to 2.9x shareholders' equity </li>
<li>The reality is that NYCB's credit costs are now far higher than in the recessionary period of the early 1990s, showing what some banks can face in coming quarters</li>
</ul>


The risk for US small banks is clear with the major charge taken by New York Community Bank (NYCB US) for its CRE exposure
Small banks in the US, those outside the largest 25 by assets, have 45% of their loans in CRE which equates to 2.9x shareholders' equity 
The reality is that NYCB's credit costs are now far higher than in the recessionary period of the early 1990s, showing what some banks can face in coming quarters


US Banks - NYCB Credit Costs Are Much Higher than in the Early 1990s

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

Risk-on signals remain the dominant theme. As a result, we continue to believe we are close to exiting the "mixed market environment" in favor of a new, broad-based advance.  One of those risk-on signals is that the S&amp;P 400 Mid-Caps (IJH) are breaking out to new highs, and we expect small-caps (IWM) to follow.Charts highlighted: IJH, IWM, XOP, XLF, RCD, XLI, XLP, XLU, PPH, IYZ, COP, EOG, PXD, OXY, DVN, CLR, BK, SBNY, STL, UBSI, FNB, WTFC, UMBF, ASB, MOS, CF, ICL, UAN, and IPI

Risk-on signals remain the dominant theme. As a result, we continue to believe we are close to exiting the "mixed market environment" in favor of a new, broad-based advance.  One of those risk-on signals is that the S&amp;P 400 Mid-Caps (IJH) are breaking out to new highs, and we expect small-caps (IWM) to follow.Charts highlighted: IJH, IWM, XOP, XLF, RCD, XLI, XLP, XLU, PPH, IYZ, COP, EOG, PXD, OXY, DVN, CLR, BK, SBNY, STL, UBSI, FNB, WTFC, UMBF, ASB, MOS, CF, ICL, UAN, and IPI

US Equity Strategy: Mid-Caps Breaking Out, Are Small-Caps Next? Buying Energy, Financials, Materials

The S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) have all rallied to logical resistance; if they are able to break above and stay above their respective resistance levels it would signal the end of the current consolidation phase. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Financials:

The S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) have all rallied to logical resistance; if they are able to break above and stay above their respective resistance levels it would signal the end of the current consolidation phase. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Financials:

U.S. Equity Strategy: Testing Key Resistance; Downgrading Health Care

United States

United Bankshares, Inc. is a holding company that, through its subsidiaries, operates a network of offices in West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Ohio, and Washington, D.C.  The Banks attract deposits from the general public and originates a variety of loan products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

United Bankshares (UBSI US)

US Banks - NYCB Credit Costs Are Much Higher than in the Early 1990s

US CRE loan risk is clearest now with the NYCB charge taken in 4Q23, putting its credit costs now well higher than the recessionary period in...

Daniel Tabbush

US Equity Strategy: Mid-Caps Breaking Out, Are Small-Caps Next? Buying Energy, Financials, Materials

Risk-on signals remain the dominant theme. One of those risk-on signals is that the S&P 400 Mid-Caps (IJH) are breaking out to new highs, and we...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Testing Key Resistance; Downgrading Health Care

The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) have all rallied to logical resistance; a break above their respective resistance levels...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)