Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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Aehr had a messy print, with the core business actually weaker than expected as they incorporated their recent acquisition. It’s hard to stay bearish, as they have a lot of potential product launches coming.
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TSMC beat gross margins despite everything because of higher utilization. The logic cycle is starting to kick off in earnest. I believe WFE Capex will be much higher next year.
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ASML talked up high-NA DRAM insertion on 25/26. Only Samsung could do it. Good luck, Samsung!

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Aehr had a messy print, with the core business actually weaker than expected as they incorporated their recent acquisition. It’s hard to stay bearish, as they have a lot of potential product launches coming.


TSMC beat gross margins despite everything because of higher utilization. The logic cycle is starting to kick off in earnest. I believe WFE Capex will be much higher next year.


ASML talked up high-NA DRAM insertion on 25/26. Only Samsung could do it. Good luck, Samsung!




Earnings: TSMC, AEHR, ASML, VAT Group, Export Restrictions

<ul><li>Subsystems did the results you should expect, and MKSI did a questionable (and understandable) convertible offering that tanked shares right after.</li><li>All subsystems (except Ichor which sucks) look to be in a much better spot.</li><li>The summary is that Subsystems revenue should continue improving into the second half and that 2025 will be a strong year.</li></ul>

Subsystems did the results you should expect, and MKSI did a questionable (and understandable) convertible offering that tanked shares right after.All subsystems (except Ichor which sucks) look to be in a much better spot.The summary is that Subsystems revenue should continue improving into the second half and that 2025 will be a strong year.

Earnings Subsystems (MKSI, ICHR, UCTT), Semicap (ONTO, CAMT, AMAT, TOELY), and SiTime

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>UMS Holdings' stock price has been oversold in the past several weeks. It posted excellent results in 4Q 2021 and its valuations have become more attractive. </li>
<li>If the global semiconductor cycle undergoes a major downtrend, UMS Holdings would not be immune from such downturn and the company is likely to experience lower sales and profit growth.</li>
<li>We believe that UMS Holdings has 20% to 40%+ upside from current levels over the next one year, based on historical valuation multiples in the past three years. </li>
</ul>


UMS Holdings' stock price has been oversold in the past several weeks. It posted excellent results in 4Q 2021 and its valuations have become more attractive. 
If the global semiconductor cycle undergoes a major downtrend, UMS Holdings would not be immune from such downturn and the company is likely to experience lower sales and profit growth.
We believe that UMS Holdings has 20% to 40%+ upside from current levels over the next one year, based on historical valuation multiples in the past three years. 


UMS Holdings: Excellent Results in 2021 & Valuation Has Become More Attractive After Recent Sell-Off

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

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<li>The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.</li>
<li>As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.</li>
</ul>


The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.
As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.
Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.


Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

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<li>UMS Holdings is a beneficiary of continued strong global demand for semiconductor chips and equipment. </li>
<li>The company had excellent results in 3Q 2021. Its total sales rose by 50% YoY to SGD 67.6 million net profit also increased by 17% YoY in 3Q 2021.</li>
<li>There has been an increasing bullish sentiment on the global aerospace sector and the company's tuck-in acquisitions in the aerospace sector in the past several years now appear more attractive.</li>
</ul>


UMS Holdings is a beneficiary of continued strong global demand for semiconductor chips and equipment. 
The company had excellent results in 3Q 2021. Its total sales rose by 50% YoY to SGD 67.6 million net profit also increased by 17% YoY in 3Q 2021.
There has been an increasing bullish sentiment on the global aerospace sector and the company's tuck-in acquisitions in the aerospace sector in the past several years now appear more attractive.


UMS Holdings: Attractive Valuations & Continued Strong Global Demand for Semiconductor Equipment

United States

Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. develops and supplies critical subsystems for the semiconductor capital equipment industry, focusing on gas delivery systems. These gas delivery systems enable the precise delivery of specialty gases used in a majority of the key steps in the semiconductor manufacturing process.

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Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT US)

Earnings: TSMC, AEHR, ASML, VAT Group, Export Restrictions

The first week of earnings lends us confirmation bias, and additional fears of export restrictions. Let’s start with the actual earnings order,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Earnings Subsystems (MKSI, ICHR, UCTT), Semicap (ONTO, CAMT, AMAT, TOELY), and SiTime

The final week of earnings other than Nvidia. Subsystems did the results you should expect, and MKSI did a questionable (and understandable)...

Fabricated Knowledge

UMS Holdings: Excellent Results in 2021 & Valuation Has Become More Attractive After Recent Sell-Off

UMS Holdings' stock price has been oversold in the past several weeks. It posted excellent results in 4Q 2021 and its valuations have become more...

Douglas Kim

Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495, we...

Vermilion Research

UMS Holdings: Attractive Valuations & Continued Strong Global Demand for Semiconductor Equipment

Three key catalysts of UMS Holdings include continued strong global demand for semiconductor chips, bullish sentiment on the global aerospace...

Douglas Kim

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