External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Given the rising competitive intensity for low-cost and granular deposits facing the banking system, loan-deposit ratios at historical highs, and expected rate cuts towards the back-end of FY25, we believe banks are faced with the challenge of quality deposit mobilisation, elevated funding costs (lagged deposit re-pricing) and softer incremental spreads</li><li>As banks and NBFCs navigate the growth-margin trade-off, we argue that the combination of lower growth and lower spreads is likely to keep valuations under check, especially of mid-sized, high-growth franchises</li><li>While we expect system-wide growth to decelerate by 90-100 bps from FY24 levels, we are conservative on incremental spreads across our coverage universe, pencilling in 50bps of rate cuts starting Q4FY25 (blended FY25 NIMs at 12-15bps below FY24)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Given the rising competitive intensity for low-cost and granular deposits facing the banking system, loan-deposit ratios at historical highs, and expected rate cuts towards the back-end of FY25, we believe banks are faced with the challenge of quality deposit mobilisation, elevated funding costs (lagged deposit re-pricing) and softer incremental spreadsAs banks and NBFCs navigate the growth-margin trade-off, we argue that the combination of lower growth and lower spreads is likely to keep valuations under check, especially of mid-sized, high-growth franchisesWhile we expect system-wide growth to decelerate by 90-100 bps from FY24 levels, we are conservative on incremental spreads across our coverage universe, pencilling in 50bps of rate cuts starting Q4FY25 (blended FY25 NIMs at 12-15bps below FY24)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Leveraged Financials: The Liquidity Conundrum

<ul><li>Oil India: Our ADD recommendation on Oil India with a target price of INR 680 is premised on oil production growth at 9% CAGR and gas production growth at 26% CAGR over FY24-26E</li><li>Q4FY24 EBITDA stood at INR 23bn (-1% YoY, +11% QoQ), and PAT at INR 20bn (+14% YoY, +28% QoQ) came in above our estimate, driven by higher-than-expected realisations and higher other income</li><li>Oil and gas production stood at 1.65mmtoe (+5% YoY, -1% QoQ), below our estimates. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Oil India: Our ADD recommendation on Oil India with a target price of INR 680 is premised on oil production growth at 9% CAGR and gas production growth at 26% CAGR over FY24-26EQ4FY24 EBITDA stood at INR 23bn (-1% YoY, +11% QoQ), and PAT at INR 20bn (+14% YoY, +28% QoQ) came in above our estimate, driven by higher-than-expected realisations and higher other incomeOil and gas production stood at 1.65mmtoe (+5% YoY, -1% QoQ), below our estimates. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Oil India, Astral, Eris Lifesciences, Aether Industries

<ul><li>Bajaj Auto: Bajaj Auto’s Q3 PAT at INR20.4bn was ahead of our estimate of INR 19.7bn due to a better-than-expected margin of 20.1% (estimate of 19.5%)</li><li>The margin beat was due to an improved mix and better export realisation</li><li>While BAL has posted a healthy performance in FY24 so far, it is unlikely to sustain it, going forward, as (1) exports will take longer to revive in key markets like Africa and Latin America since they remain stressed due to inflation and fears linger due to current Red Sea crisis, (2) we expect growth rates in domestic motorcycles (and in 3Ws) to normalise in coming quarters on a high base and due to lack of adequate rainfall this fiscal, (3) Triumph is already available off the shelf, and (4) in 2W EVs, BAL is facing acute competitive pressure and uncertainty persists around FAME subsidy sustenance</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bajaj Auto: Bajaj Auto’s Q3 PAT at INR20.4bn was ahead of our estimate of INR 19.7bn due to a better-than-expected margin of 20.1% (estimate of 19.5%)The margin beat was due to an improved mix and better export realisationWhile BAL has posted a healthy performance in FY24 so far, it is unlikely to sustain it, going forward, as (1) exports will take longer to revive in key markets like Africa and Latin America since they remain stressed due to inflation and fears linger due to current Red Sea crisis, (2) we expect growth rates in domestic motorcycles (and in 3Ws) to normalise in coming quarters on a high base and due to lack of adequate rainfall this fiscal, (3) Triumph is already available off the shelf, and (4) in 2W EVs, BAL is facing acute competitive pressure and uncertainty persists around FAME subsidy sustenanceContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Auto, Tech Mahindra, TVS Motor, United Spirits, Hitachi Energy

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Equity Bottom-Up

Ujjivan Financial Services / Equity Bottom-Up

We currently have a BUY recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rs 37/share (1.8x FY23E ABV), implying an upside of 17% from CMP.<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

We currently have a BUY recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rs 37/share (1.8x FY23E ABV), implying an upside of 17% from CMP.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We reiterate CREDAG as our top idea that is likely to benefit from the RBI's revised proposals while we expect BANDHAN and UJJIVAN within our coverage universe to be adversely impacted. In its much-anticipated consultative paper on regulation of microfinance, the RBI has proposed greater harmonisation in the overall regulatory landscape which includes threshold definitions anchored to household income, removal of caps on number of total lenders and pricing, and elimination of any end-use restrictions on qualifying borrowers.<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

We reiterate CREDAG as our top idea that is likely to benefit from the RBI's revised proposals while we expect BANDHAN and UJJIVAN within our coverage universe to be adversely impacted. In its much-anticipated consultative paper on regulation of microfinance, the RBI has proposed greater harmonisation in the overall regulatory landscape which includes threshold definitions anchored to household income, removal of caps on number of total lenders and pricing, and elimination of any end-use restrictions on qualifying borrowers.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

MFI Consultation Paper: Incrementally positive for NBFC-MFIs

India

Ujjivan Financial Services Ltd. provides financial services. The Company offers business, family, education, emergency, housing, and livestock loans. Ujjivan Financial Services serves customers throughout India.

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Ujjivan Financial Services (UJJIVAN IN)

Leveraged Financials: The Liquidity Conundrum

Our hypothesis remains anchored around strong retail deposit franchises and declining spreads over the next 12 months, coupled with the...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Oil India, Astral, Eris Lifesciences, Aether Industries

Our ADD recommendation on Oil India with a target price of INR 680 is premised on oil production growth at 9% CAGR and gas production growth at 26%...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Auto, Tech Mahindra, TVS Motor, United Spirits, Hitachi Energy

Bajaj Auto’s Q3 PAT at INR20.4bn was ahead of our estimate of INR 19.7bn due to a better-than-expected margin of 20.1% (estimate of 19.5%)

HDFC Securities

Company Update:Ujjivan Fin.Ser.

We currently have a BUY recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rs 37/share (1.8x FY23E ABV), implying an upside of 17% from CMP.

Axis Direct

MFI Consultation Paper: Incrementally positive for NBFC-MFIs

We reiterate CREDAG as our top idea that is likely to benefit from the RBI's revised proposals while we expect BANDHAN and UJJIVAN within our...

HDFC Securities

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